Unfortunately, “too good to be true” is exactly what that number is. While the media on all sides are happy not to look past that top-level number, when we peel back the layers of data we find—surprise!—more Lou Costello Labor Math and more bad news for American workers.

This jobs report isn’t a win for workers, it’s a setback.

Contents

• More Lou Costello Labor Math

• Sector Level Data Is Weak

• Backsliding On Wages

• Joblessness Rising Or Falling?

• Victory Lap But No Victory

Please Support Independent Journalism

Links And Sources

• June Employment Situation Summary: https://archive.ph/sUKWv

• All Employees, Total Nonfarm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRfE

• All Employees, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgDU

• BLS vs ADP, Indexed 2021: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IKnp

• BLS vs ADP, Indexed 2025: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1K1sr

• Total Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJKi

• Employment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuSN

• All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLiX

• All Employees, Private Education and Health Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IJYM

• All Employees, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJTb

• All Employees, Private vs Government: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1K1q3

• Average Weekly Hours of All Employees: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIXY

• Hourly and Weekly Wages vs CPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1K8mF

• Unemployment Level, MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1K8JI

• Not In Labor Force: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuUW

• Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1K8Jt

• “Real” Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1K8L6

• Employment-Population Ratio: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuUZ

• “Charting the Global Economy: US Jobs Data Eases Pressure on Fed”: https://archive.ph/wEHp6

• “Economy adds 147,000 jobs, defying expectations of a slowdown”: https://archive.ph/igvZK

• “Golden Age: U.S Economy Adds 147,000 Jobs, Much Higher Than Expected, Unemployment Rate Unexpectedly Falls”: https://archive.ph/LANE7

• Karoline Leavitt On X: https://x.com/PressSec/status/1940754759784288760

• Donald Trump on Truth Social: https://archive.ph/GRbop

• Department Of Labor on X: https://x.com/USDOL/status/1940752735252762700

• Small Business Administration on X: https://x.com/SBAgov/status/1940805275767971948

Contents

• Prices Rose In May

• Consumption Fell In May

• Wages Rose, Incomes Fell

• Will There Be More?

Please Support Independent Journalism

Links And Sources

• May Personal Income and Outlays Report (BEA): https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-may-2025

• May PCEPI Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7dx#

• May PCEPI Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6zm#

• May PCEPI Energy Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2ns

• May PCEPI Food Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nB#

• May PCEPI Goods and Services Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nM#

• May Consumption Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6FT#

• “Inflation Slows Despite Tariff Threat”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-slows-despite-tariff-threat

• May Consumption In Durable Goods Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E7gI#

• Real Personal Consumption Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6FT#

• Real “Core” Personal Consumption Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JRtS

• Real Energy Personal Consumption Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JRu8

• Real Food Personal Consumption Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JRtU

• May Wages vs Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JRs2#

• May Personal Income Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JRrI

• May Compensation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JRt1

• May Earnings vs CPI and PCEPI Indexed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JRBf

• “May Inflation Report Beats Expectations”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/may-inflation

• “Iran-Israeli War: Who Will Win?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/iran-israeli-war-who-will-win

• “Jobs Recession Still Grips US”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/jobs-recession-still-grips-us

However, the surface is where the good news ends.

April was a relatively good month for jobs, but the detail underneath show May to be quite a bit less than that, with job growth that is more illusory than real.

Contents

• Lou Costello Labor Math

• Sector Level Numbers Weak

• Pay Numbers Still Disappointing

• Joblessness Still Rising

• No Job Growth

Please Support Independent Journalism

Links And Sources

• May Employment Situation Summary (BLS): https://archive.ph/bWI8x

• Employment Level, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IKnp

• All Employees, Total Non-Farm Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRfE

• All Employees, Total Private Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgDU

• Employment Level Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuSN

• Total Non-Farm Private Payrolls: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJKi

• All Employees, Manufacturing Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLiX

• ADP Private Payrolls for Manufacturing Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLje

• All Employees Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJTb

• ADP Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKaI

• All Employees Education and Private Healthcare Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IJYM

• ADP Education and Private Healthcare Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuSS

• Average Hourly Earnings and Consumer Price Index: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIW1

• Average Weekly Hours: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIXY

• Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuV4

• “Real” Unemployment Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuV3

• Not In Labor Force Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuUW

• Employment Population Ratio: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JuUZ

However, until many of the ongoing macroeconomic trends change, President Trump can look forward to ongoing disinflation for the next few months at least.

That will be a clear political win for President Trump, and a clear economic win for the American consumer.

Contents

• Disinflation Continues

• DOGE And Tariffs Having Impact?

• Will This Continue?

• Inflation Not Returning (Yet)

Please Support Independent Journalism

Links And Sources

• “Personal Income and Outlays, April 2025” (BEA): https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2025

• “April PCE Data Confirms Disinflation”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/april-pce-data-unlikely-to-print

• PCEPI Headline And Core Inflation Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7dx

• PCEPI Headline And Core Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6zm

• PCEPI Energy Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2ns

• PCEPI Food Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nB

• PCEPI Goods and Services Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nM

• Personal Current Transfer Payments (Indexed): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JnQX

• Personal Consumption Expenditures Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6FT

• Personal Consumption Expenditures (Goods and Services) Month on Month:

  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E7gI

• Oil Price Futures (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/ym7erp6j

• AAA National Average Gasoline Prices: https://gasprices.aaa.com/

• Gas Buddy Price Chart: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

• Energy and Commodity Prices YTD (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/ycxsbn5t

• Commodity Price Indices (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/s4efvbky

• Import Price Index: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1JnU3

• “Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows”: https://archive.ph/5wpqC

• “Americans are pulling back as tariff turmoil adds to economic uncertainty”: https://archive.ph/TiNk9

The inflation report is not without a few warning signs, however. Core inflation barely dropped year on year, indicating that inflationary pressures still lurk within the US economy.

Intriguingly, a closer inspection of the data shows no clear indication the Liberation Day tariffs drove inflation even in the categories where there was consumer price inflation.

What was your experience with inflation like in April? Did you see prices fall, rise, or stay the same? Leave a comment below or drop one in chat and let me know!

Contents:

• Energy Price Deflation?

• Food Price Deflation

• Core Inflation Rising

• What Tariffs?

Links And Sources

• Consumer Price Index Summary (BLS): https://archive.ph/n8qi2

• Consumer Price Index Energy — Percent Change Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I0hm

• Consumer Price Index Energy — Percent Change Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG8p

• Oil Price Futures — April: https://tinyurl.com/yvuxss8r

• RBOB Gasoline Futures — April: https://tinyurl.com/34avwfst

• US Regular All Formulations Gas/Diesel Prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1J1s4

• GasBuddy Price Charts: https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

• Consumer Price Index Electricity/Piped Gas — Percent Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1J1tH

• Natural Gas Futures: https://tinyurl.com/4dpud5h2

• Consumer Price Index Food — Percent Change Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I0jb

• Consumer Price Index Food — Percent Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCyZ

• Average Price (Eggs) — Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZEk

• Average Price (Milk) — Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZG7

• Average Price (Lettuce) — Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFZ

• Average Price (Chicken) — Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZEW

• Average Price (Beef) — Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZET

• Consumer Price Index Shelter — Percent Change Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1J1xc

• Consumer Price Index Shelter — Percent Change Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG99

• Zillow Observed Rent Index — Change Month on Month: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/

• Consumer Price Index Durable Goods — Percent Change Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3D

• Consumer Price Index Nondurable Goods — Percent Change Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3u

• Consumer Price Index Services — Percent Change Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DGa1

• “Inflation Rising”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-rising-dec?open=false#§supply-chain-squeeze

• “Deal Or No Deal”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/deal-or-no-deal?open=false#§update-am-cdt-may

• “Jerome Powell’s Great Shrug”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/jerome-powells-great-shrug

Remarkably, Jay Powell all but admitted he did not have a good read on the economy and Wall Street was okay with that!

Jay Powell’s indecisiveness is as good a reason as any to unpack some of the economic data which mystifies him. By applying a soupcon of analysis, perhaps we can see what Powell might be overlooking, and get the read on the US economy that appears to elude him.

Contents

• Fed Stands Pat

• Wall Street Was Happy

• Main Street Not So Happy

• Manufacturing Signals Weakness

• New Orders Promising

• The Jobs Recession Is Real

• Economy Is NOT Solid

Links and Sources

• “Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Sees Economy as ‘Solid’”: https://archive.ph/Rn0XM

• “No One Expected The Fed To Cut Rates, And They Didn’t”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/i/162836265/no-one-expected-the-fed-to-cut-rates-and-they-didnt

• FOMC Statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250507a.htm

• Transcript of Jerome Powell’s Press Conference: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdf

• “Recession Postponed”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/i/162836265/recession-postponed

• Market Yield on US Treasury Securities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITJn

• Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ: https://tinyurl.com/mr23w863

• Dollar Index, Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency

• US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield

• United States ISM Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

• United States Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

• United States Services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-pmi

• United States ISM Services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi

• Current General Business Activity; Diffusion Index for Texas: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITxP

• Current General Business Conditions; Diffusion Index for New York: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITyh

• Current General Activity; Diffusion Index for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITyC

• Manufacturers' New Orders: Total Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITz8

• Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITwy

• Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer Goods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITzo

• All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLiX

• Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIpw

• Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIoy

• “Job Numbers Are Up. Paychecks Aren’t”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/april-jobs

Or is that all just wishful thinking?

Contents

• BLS Still Overstates Job Growth

• Lou Costello Labor Math?

• There Was Job Growth

• Manufacturing Disappoints

• Paychecks Disappoint

• Still A Jobs Recession

• Good, Just Not Good Enough

Links And Sources

• April Employment Situation Summary (BLS): https://archive.ph/oU1tt

• “Employers added 177,000 jobs in April, topping analyst forecasts”: https://archive.ph/UklL0

• Employment Level, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IKnp

• Employment Level, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IKn9

• Employment Level, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IKnS

• Employment Level, All Employees, Total Nonfarm Private Payrolls: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IKnj

• “Once Again, The (Biden-)Harris Job Numbers Are Proven Fake”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/once-again-the-biden-harris-job-numbers

• All Employees, Total Nonfarm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRfE

• All Employees, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgDU

• ADP, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJKi

• All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLiX

• ADP—Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLje

• All Employees, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJTb

• ADP—Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKaI

• All Employees, Private Education and Health Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IJYM

• Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Goods Producing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIW1

• Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIW1

• Average Hourly Earnings vs CPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIW1

• Average Weekly Hours of All Employees, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIXY

• Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIpw

• “Real” Unemployment Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIqv

• Employment Leve—Part Time for Economic Reasons: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIoy

Contents

• Introduction

• Not Everything Shrank

• Corporate Media Gaslighting

• What Did Grow

• What Didn’t Grow

• Getting Defensive

Links And Sources

• Advance Estimate of First Quarter GDP for 2025 (BEA): https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2025-advance-estimate

• “US economy goes into reverse from Trump’s abrupt policy shifts“: https://archive.ph/0vh3o

• “U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses”: https://archive.ph/0qDga

• “U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter”: https://archive.ph/IJu5k

• 1Q Real Investment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IF16

• 1Q Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IF1Q

• 1Q Real Change In Private Inventories: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IF2y

• 1Q Real Exports of Goods and Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IEDY

• 1Q Real Consumption of Goods and Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IF3g

• 1Q Real Final Sales of Domestic Products YoY: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IEDl

• 1Q Real Final Sales of Domestic Products QoQ: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IEqI

• 1Q Real Government Spending: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IEoj#

There is no way a reduction in trade relations does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China. Similarly, there is no way the disruption in trade relations that is the trade war itself does not amount to a reduction in GDP for both the United States and China.

That is the price that will be paid by both the United States and China as the cost of this trade war.

Whether China’s economy is in any shape to be paying such a price is, by the numbers, very much in doubt.

Links And Sources

• “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits”:
  https://tinyurl.com/5h9mf7z3

• “Further Amendment to Duties Addressing the Synthetic Opioid Supply Chain in the People’s Republic of China as Applied to Low-Value Imports”: https://tinyurl.com/mrmjjyn2

• “Trump tariffs on China will actually be 145% — not 125% for some imports, White House clarifies”: https://archive.ph/WxIQE

• “China Is Trapped In Deflation With No Way Out”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/china-is-trapped-in-deflation-with

• “China is well positioned to weather Trump’s trade war”: https://archive.ph/c8dVq

• China Consumer Price Index: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/consumer-price-index-cpi

• China Core Consumer Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/core-consumer-prices

• China Money Supply M1: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/money-supply-m1

• China M1 vs US M1 Money Supply (Indexed): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I8QP

• China Central Bank Balance Sheet: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/central-bank-balance-sheet

• China Banks Balance Sheet: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/banks-balance-sheet

• China Export Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/export-prices

• China Import Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/import-prices

• China Yuan vs US Dollar: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=CNY&to=USD&view=5Y

• China NBS Manufacturing PMI: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

• “China: The Sick Man Of Asia”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/china-the-sick-man-of-asia

• China Housing Sales — Apartments: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

• China Housing Sales — Houses: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

• China Housing Starts: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-starts

• China Property Investment: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/property-investment

• China Residential Property Prices: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/residential-property-prices

• China NBS Construction PMI: https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01

• “China’s Xi hits out at Trump, says there are no winners in tariff war”: https://archive.ph/uhXWn

The tariffs are still very much the wild card regarding what happens next with consumer prices in the US. The producer price data, however, suggests that whatever does happen next may not be as wild as corporate media has been suggesting.

Links And Sources

• “Deflation!”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/deflation

• Producer Price Index Summary: https://archive.ph/0tqjW

• PPI For Final Demand And Core Demand: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I2MS

• Energy PPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DELi

• Food PPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DEL7

• Eggs PPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I2tR

• Goods PPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Etts

• Services PPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Ett4

• Construction PPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I2uX

• PPI For Intermediate Demand: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I2HZ

• Goods And Services PPI For Intermediate Demand: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I2P8

• Services PPI For Intermediate Demand: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I2Ih

• “China’s Deflation Deepens”: https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-107885665

For better or for worse the Liberation Day tariffs are now part of the economic and geopolitical landscape. For better or worse we will be dealing with their impacts from April onward.

For better or worse, we won’t know what those impacts will be until they happen.

Welcome to “interesting times”!

Links And Sources

• Consumer Price Index Summary (BLS): https://archive.ph/1BJXL

• “Cooling Inflation Shows Trump’s Disruptive Impact”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/cooling-inflation-shows-trumps-disruptive

• “Apocalypse Maybe”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/apocalypse-maybe

• Donald J. Trump Agenda 47: https://web.archive.org/web/20250324174846/https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform

• Headline and Core CPI Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCve

• Headline and Core CPI Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCva

• Energy Price Inflation Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG8p

• Energy Price Inflation Year On Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I0hm

• Food Price Inflation Month On Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCyZ

• Foor Price Inflation Year On Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1I0jb

• “Trump Effect: Americans See First Price Relief in Years”: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/04/trump-effect-americans-see-first-price-relief-in-years/

• “US consumer prices unexpectedly fall in March”: https://archive.ph/NrGF2#selection-1217.0-1217.108

• “US inflation cooled to a six-month low in March, but tariff pressures are quickly mounting“: https://archive.ph/TvZye#selection-3091.13-3091.286

• “Promises Made, Promises Kept: Consumer Prices Fell In March, Defying Predictions of Tarifflation: https://archive.ph/0Vqa5#selection-1043.0-1043.146

• Egg Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZEk

• Beef Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZET

• Chicken Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZEW

• Pork Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZHQ

• Bread Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFd

• Potato Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFS

• Lettuce Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFZ

• Milk Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZG7

• Cheese Prices Change MoM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZHu

• Daily Oil Prices for March (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/3avn7f5u

• Daily Commodity Price Indices For March (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/524uje9n

• Daily Gasoline Futures Prices For March: https://tinyurl.com/46x4jbeu

• EIA Weekly Gasline Prices: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HZFv

• Housing Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG99

• Service Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DGa1

• Nondurable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3u

• Durable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3D

• “Inflation Rising”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-rising-dec

• “Commodities Dropped On Tariff Noise”: https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-107151460

• “Stocks, Commodities Surge On Tariff Pause”: https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-107494878

Links

• Liberation Day Tariffs Crashing Every Stock Market?

• Global Stock Meltdown Inevitable?

• Not A Total Meltdown

• Apocalypse Later?

• Is The Market Touching Bottom?

• Tariffs Are Hitting Other Countries Harder

• EU Wants To Negotiate On Tariffs

• A Market Bottom Is Firming

• Even The Naysayers Are Tripped Up By Facts

• Stocks Turn Positive?

• Commodities Are Still Down After Liberation Day

• Larry Fink Has This Much Right: We Are In A Recession

• Stocks Slip Negative Again

• NASDAQ Breaks Even At The Close. Dow Drops 1%

Moreover, the red flags within the services sector should not be ignored. Services growth is what has sustained the US economy overall for the past few years, and if that growth falters, the US economy could be heading into some very rough waters indeed.

Links And Sources

• BLS Employment Situation Summary, March 2025: https://archive.ph/5gFCH

• ADP National Employment Report, March 2025: https://archive.ph/iomlN

• All Employees, Total Non-Farm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRfE

• All Employees, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgDU

• All Employees, Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJTb

• ADP, Total Nonfarm Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HJKi

• White House Statement on March Jobs: https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/04/jobs-jobs-jobs-explosive-job-growth-in-march-as-trump-economy-booms/

• Donald Trump Truth Social: https://archive.ph/W3RkM

• “The US economy added a stronger-than-expected 228,000 jobs in March”: https://archive.ph/CuYTA

• All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLiX

• ADP Nonfarm Private In Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLje

• ADP Nonfarm Trade, Transportation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKaI

• Employment—Part-time: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1CRlZ

• Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKkD

• Not In Labor Force: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HKkt

• “Real” Unemployment Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HIZx

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

• S&P Global Services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-pmi

• US Manufacturing Production MoM: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-production-mom

• US Capacity Utilization: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/capacity-utilization

Links And Sources

• February Job Openings And Labor Turnover Summary: https://archive.ph/wsbse

• February JOLTS Summary, 2021-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BTIm

• ”November JOLTS: "Little Changed" Means "Still Getting Worse"“: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/november-jolts-little-changed-means

• February JOLTS Summary, 2024-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1GYRS

• Hiring vs Separations: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H8mW

• Net Hiring, 2024-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1Cv

• Net Hiring, 2021-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1CB

• Net Hiring, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BTPp

• Net Hiring, Trade, Transporatation, and Utilities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1DK

• Net Hiring, Professional and Business Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1Dt

• Net Hiring, Leisure and Hospitality: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1DW

• JOLTS Hiring By Sector, 2021-Current: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1GYPP

• Hiring vs Unemployment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BU0w

• Quits and Layoffs vs Unemployment: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1H1IJ

• Quits vs Layoffs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1BTPd

• “Tight Labor Markets?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/strong-labor-markets

• “The Jobs Recession Is Here”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/the-jobs-recession-is-here

• “JOLTS Report Says Nothing Has Changed. That's The Problem”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/jolts-report-says-nothing-has-change

• “December JOLTS: Fake Job Openings Show "Little Change", Actual Hiring Shows Not So Little Decline”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/december-jolts-fake-job-openings

Links And Sources

• Bureau of Economic Analysis Personal Income and Outlays Report: https://www.bea.gov/news/2025/personal-income-and-outlays-february-2025

• Headline/Core PCEPI Inflation Rate Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7dx

• Headline/Core PCEPI Inflation Rate Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6zm

• PCEPI Energy Price Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2ns

• PCEPI Food Price Inflation Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nB

• PCEPI Core Price Inflation Breakdown: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E2nM

• CPI Core Price Inflation Breakdown: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7va

• Headline/Core CPI Inflation Rate Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCve

• Headline/Core CPI Inflation Rate Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCva

• “US PCE Inflation Accelerates, Spending Is Weaker Than Forecast”: https://archive.ph/Rann9

• “Inflation Remained Sticky Ahead of Trump’s Escalating Trade War”: https://archive.ph/V04Td

• PCE Current Transfer Payments: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6yY

• PCE Current Transfer Payments Indexed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6Kz

• Personal Consumption Expenditures: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6FT

• Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Breakdown: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E7gI

• Commodities Price Indices (Barchart): https://tinyurl.com/4j4u8rfh

• Copper Futures Prices (Trading Economics): https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

• Treasury Yields: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1G7fB

• “This Economy Is Doing Well?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/this-economy-is-doing-well

2025 is not going to be a kind year to Wall Street. Consequences rarely are.

Links And Sources:

• “Recession alarms are ringing on Wall Street. Here are 4 warnings economists are pointing to.”: https://archive.ph/mjX2j

• “This Economy Is Doing Well?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/this-economy-is-doing-well

• Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ Percentage Results YTD: https://tinyurl.com/4cz3zu4m

• “Wall Street Battered Again by Trump Chaos as New Winners Emerge”: https://archive.ph/tCK4w

• “Stock market today: Back down goes Wall Street as Big Tech resumes its slide”: https://archive.ph/32S9B

• “Stock market today: Wall Street slips, but remains on path to snap a weekly losing streak”: https://archive.ph/LFWSK

• Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ Percentage Results March 17-21: https://tinyurl.com/3kt96b6f

• Dow Jones, S&P 500, NASDAQ Percentage Results 2021-2025: https://tinyurl.com/3d3cw5zn

• “Looking Back To Future Greatness”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/looking-back-to-future-greatness

• Dow Jones Historical Data: https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-historical-data

• S&P 500 Historical Data: https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500-historical-data

• M1 Money Supply Historical Data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1NS

• “Not Only A Lost Decade But A False Decade”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/not-only-a-lost-decade-but-a-false

• All Employees, Total Private (BLS): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV

• Employment Level (BLS): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV

• “Philadelphia Fed Confirms BLS Is BS”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/philadelphia-fed-confirms-bls-is

• “Corporate Media "Discovers" BLS Jobs Data For 2023 Is BS”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/corporate-media-discovers-bls-jobs

• “China Is Trapped In Deflation With No Way Out”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/china-is-trapped-in-deflation-with

• “More Troubling News For China”: https://substack.com/@peternaylandkust/note/c-101242522

• “Asleep At The Wheel?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/asleep-at-the-wheel

At present, the impeachment process is the most likely way to achieve that.

Links & Sources

• “Judge demands flight details as Trump administration defends deportations”: https://archive.ph/PEoi4

• Alien Enemies Act Of 1798: https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/50/chapter-3

• “Trump wields 1798 law to deport nearly 300 Venezuelans despite judge's order to block action”: https://archive.ph/pgNtm

• President (El Salvador) Nayib Bukele Tweet: https://archive.ph/k7na4

• President Trump Truth Social Post: https://archive.ph/zz0P2

• “John Roberts, in rare statement, hits back after Trump calls for impeaching judges”: https://archive.ph/1jdFn

• Archived Text of Alien Enemies Act of 1798: https://www.archives.gov/milestone-documents/alien-and-sedition-acts

• Invocation of the Alien Enemies Act Regarding the Invasion of The United States by Tren De Aragua: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/03/invocation-of-the-alien-enemies-act-regarding-the-invasion-of-the-united-states-by-tren-de-aragua/

• Mississippi v. Johnson, 71 U.S. 475 (1866)

• Sean Davis Tweet on John Roberts: https://archive.ph/I4QHK

• “BREAKING: Corrupt Obama Judge Chutkan Temporarily Blocks Lee Zeldin From Clawing Back $20 Billion From Biden EPA Slush Fund”: https://archive.ph/rQwq3

• “Smith Indicts Trump For Doubting The Deep State”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/smith-indicts-trump-for-not-doubting

• Lee Zeldin Tweet on EPA “slush fund”: https://archive.ph/On8B8

• “DOGE Finds $2 Billion in Taxpayer Funds Earmarked for Stacey Abrams-Linked Group”: https://archive.ph/cnjVR

• “'Serious Conflicts of Interest': Biden EPA Official Oversaw $5B Grant to His Former Employer”: https://archive.ph/33sPo

• “Judges warn against impeachments for rulings against Trump”: https://archive.ph/fIY33

• “Second judge indefinitely blocks Trump’s sweeping OMB funding freeze”: https://archive.ph/UOQP4

• “Judge orders release of certain owed foreign aid payments”: https://archive.ph/3T4RX

• “Judge orders health agencies to restore data scrubbed by Trump administration”: https://archive.ph/asL0t

• “Judge blocks Musk, DOGE from accessing Treasury payment systems” : https://tinyurl.com/ywzwtf78

• “DOGE Is Not Telling Us Anything New. That’s The Problem”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/doge-is-not-telling-us-anything-new

• Hamilton, A. The Avalon Project : Federalist No 65. 7 Mar. 1788, https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed65.asp.

• U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section 4: https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/articles/article-ii#article-section-4

• Hamilton, A. The Avalon Project : Federalist No 66. 11 Mar. 1788, https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed66.asp.

• Federal Judicial Center. Impeachments of Federal Judges | Federal Judicial Center. https://www.fjc.gov/history/judges/impeachments-federal-judges.

• Newt Gingrich Tweet on Judiciary Act of 1802: https://archive.ph/rbwYi

• Federal Judicial Center. Landmark Legislation: Judiciary Act of 1802 | Federal Judicial Center. https://www.fjc.gov/history/legislation/landmark-legislation-judiciary-act-1802. 2 Stat. 156

It is quite possible that President Trump’s trade war threats will cause higher prices at least for a time here in the US. If those threats go off the rails they may result in an extended period of inflation. If they work perfectly they may result in bringing consumer price inflation down below 2% for every good and service imaginable.

We are not going to know which of these possibilities will become realities until they do.

Links & Sources

• Consumer Price Index Summary: https://archive.ph/X7kZG

• Producer Price Index Summary: https://archive.ph/mgriw

• “Inflation Rising”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-rising-dec

• Headline vs Core Inflation, Year on Year: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCva

• Headline vs Core Inflation, Month on Month: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCve

• Energy Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG8p

• Food Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DCyZ

• Shelter Price Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DG99

• Durable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3D

• Nondurable Goods Inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DE3u

• Service Price Inflaton: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DGa1

• “U.S. Inflation Eased More Than Expected in February”: https://archive.ph/794j5

• “US inflation cooled in February, but Trump’s tariff plans and trade war loom”: https://archive.ph/4t1on

• “Inflation eased in February, but it’s still too close for comfort”: https://archive.ph/2Uvyy

• InflationNow Nowcast, Cleveland Federal Reserve: https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting

• EU Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/european-union/inflation-rate

• Japan Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/inflation-cpi

• Canada Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/inflation-cpi

• Mexico Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/mexico/inflation-cpi

• China Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/inflation-cpi

• Copper Futures: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/copper

• Lumber Futures: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lumber

• Wheat Futures: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/wheat

• Commodity Price Indices (BarChart): https://tinyurl.com/6bmre52s

• Oil Futures: https://tinyurl.com/4mez5nnv

• RBOB Gasoline Futures: https://tinyurl.com/2wfkmama

• PPI For Final Demand: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DEKf

• PPI For Final Demand - Energy: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DELi

• PPI For Final Demand - Goods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Etts

• PPI For Final Demand - Services: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Ett4

• PPI For Final Demand - Food: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1DEL7

• “Dow slides and S&P enters correction territory as Trump’s trade war escalates”: https://archive.ph/NZaWJ

• “Stocks tumble on Thursday, pushing the S&P 500 into a 10% correction”: https://archive.ph/KAejo

• “Does Anyone Have The Truth About Trump's Tariffs?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/does-anyone-have-the-about-trumps

• “Is Donald Trump Giving Peace A Chance?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/is-donald-trump-giving-peace-a-chance

• “DOGE Is Not Telling Us Anything New. That’s The Problem”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/doge-is-not-telling-us-anything-new

Links & Sources

• “Germany's planned spending spree: what it means for the economy”: https://archive.ph/Ob3pB

• German Industrial Production: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production

• German Manufacturing Production: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-production

• German GDP Growth Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth

• German GDP From Manufacturing: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-from-manufacturing

• German GDP From Construction: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-from-construction

• German GDP From Agriculture: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-from-agriculture

• German GDP From Public Administration: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-from-public-administration

• “Germany’s ‘whatever-it-takes’ spending push to end years of stagnation”: https://archive.ph/c5XRp

• “‘A really big bazooka’: German defense spending likely to rise after parties agree historic debt change”: https://archive.ph/1OxOn

• “Germany's planned spending spree: what it means for the economy”: https://archive.ph/Ob3pB

• Article 115 Of Germany Basic Law: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/englisch_gg/englisch_gg.html#p0685

• Article 79 Of Germany Basic Law: https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/englisch_gg/englisch_gg.html#p0416

• German Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/inflation-cpi

• German Inflation Rate Month On Month: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/inflation-rate-mom

• German Core Inflation Rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/core-inflation-rate

• German Energy Inflation: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/energy-inflation

• German Food Inflation: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/food-inflation

• “Japan's "Abenomics" Experiment”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/japans-abenomics-experiment

• German 10-Year Bond Yield: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/government-bond-yield

• “The Breaking Begins: BoE Intervention Halts The Rise In Yields At The Expense Of Everything Else”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/the-breaking-begins-boe-intervention

• “Silvergate Capital And SVB: How A Liquidity Crisis Unfolds”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/silvergate-capital-and-svb-how-a

• “German spending boost to leave lasting impact on world bond markets”: https://archive.ph/1twB9

• “Opposition builds to Germany’s trillion-dollar debt plan”: https://archive.ph/bWpuZ

• “Will Europe De-Industrialize?”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/will-europe-de-industrialize

Corporate media prefers propaganda and spin, and cannot resist anti-Trump cynicism, but the jobs recession remains the sober reality of the Employment Situation Summary Report.

Links And Sources

• Employment Situation Summary Report: https://archive.ph/RjZlT

• “US employers add a solid 151,000 jobs last month though unemployment up to 4.1%”: https://archive.ph/pRhCF

• “US hiring falls short of expectations in 1st full month of Trump term”: https://archive.ph/2rK2k

• Employment Population Ratio: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Eg96

• Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EghM

• Not In Labor Force: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Egif

• Not In Labor Force/Want A Job Now: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgjK

• “Real” Unemployment Rate: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Egjs

• Employment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Eg8J

• National Employment Report: https://archive.ph/fuakf

• All Employees, Total Non Farm: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgDr

• All Employees, Total Private: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgDU

• Total Nonfarm Private Employment (ADP): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Egy5

• ADP Goods Producing Jobs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Egyh

• BLS Goods Producing Jobs: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Egz3

• All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Egzy

• Average Weekly Hours: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgEo

• Average Hourly Earnings vs CPI: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgEB

• ISM Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence

• S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

• ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi

• S&P Global Services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-pmi

• US Capacity Utilization: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/capacity-utilization

• Manufacturing Production MoM: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-production-mom

• All Employees, Government: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EgbB

• “Layoff announcements soar to the highest since 2020 as DOGE slashes federal staff”: https://archive.ph/F5GrQ

• “US announced job cuts surge 245% in February on federal government layoffs”: https://archive.ph/hHVJs

• “Job Cuts Are Already Higher Than All Of 2024“: https://archive.ph/HsRJO