With the Bureau of Labor Statistics September Employment Situation Summary due out later this morning, it is worth pausing to note that the privately developed ADP Employment Report indicated September produced roughly 208,000 jobs in the US.
Private sector employment increased by 208,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 7.8% year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment Report™ produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).
The jobs report and pay insights use ADP’s fine-grained anonymized and aggregated payroll data of over 25 million U.S. employees to provide a representative picture of the labor market. The report details the current month’s total private employment change, and weekly job data from the previous month. ADP’s pay measure uniquely captures the earnings of a cohort of almost 10 million employees over a 12-month period.
Most notably, ADP showed job gains across the range of firm sizes.
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 167,083 in the week ending October 1, an increase of 13,264 (or 8.6 percent) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 8,567 (or -5.6 percent) from the previous week. There were 261,927 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 0.9 percent during the week ending September 24, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted level of insured unemployment in state programs totaled 1,228,583, an increase of 4,140 (or 0.3 percent) from the preceding week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 9,419 (or -0.8 percent) from the previous week. A year earlier the rate was 1.8 percent and the volume was 2,404,346.
Taken together, the data suggests that the BLS Employment Situation Summary will show some increase in jobs, along with a possible slight uptick in unemployment. Compared to recent reports, the jobs outlook in the US should be cooling off—the question will be by how much? Certainly any red-hot job creation figures will simply scream Lou Costello Labor Math.
A key metric to watch will be the labor force participation rate. If labor markets are cooling, are workers remaining in the labor force or are they “giving up” entirely and moving to the sidelines?
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ADP Employment Report Suggests A Modest BLS Employment Situation Summary And A Cooling Jobs Market
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With the Bureau of Labor Statistics September Employment Situation Summary due out later this morning, it is worth pausing to note that the privately developed ADP Employment Report indicated September produced roughly 208,000 jobs in the US.
Most notably, ADP showed job gains across the range of firm sizes.
At the same time, this week’s unemployment claims as reported by the Department of Labor rose to 167,083, with total continuing claims of 1,228,583 in the week prior.
Taken together, the data suggests that the BLS Employment Situation Summary will show some increase in jobs, along with a possible slight uptick in unemployment. Compared to recent reports, the jobs outlook in the US should be cooling off—the question will be by how much? Certainly any red-hot job creation figures will simply scream Lou Costello Labor Math.
A key metric to watch will be the labor force participation rate. If labor markets are cooling, are workers remaining in the labor force or are they “giving up” entirely and moving to the sidelines?