A picture being worth a thousand words, three graphs, courtesy of Our World In Data, suffice to tell the whole story of the failure of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccines against the Omicron variant.
Historically, coronavirus normally mutate at slow rates, because they have co-evolved with us and animal reservoirs and are at a relative fitness peak. So, the vaccine must have seemed like a good answer to public health.
The problem is that SARS-CoV-2 is lab-made, and the original release was not highly optimized for humans or animals. As a result the main strains are changing like crazy: in less than a year vaccinated people have negative protection, and even prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 isn't that helpful.
Moreover, in August of 2020 some six strains had been identified. Paradoxically, the strains were considered "stable" despite having originated from a single crossover strain in the fall of 2019.
The indicators for rapid variation, mutation, and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 have always been in plain view.
Even at that, a whole attenuated virus inoculation similar to the annual flu shot that exposed the immune system to the entire virus rather than a single spike protein likely would have fared better than the mRNA shots, which saw diminished effectiveness once Delta emerged as the dominant variant.
It's worth noting that, although several mRNA vaccines for influenza have been attempted, none have progressed farther than phase 1/2. I suspect that one reason for this is that the influenza virus itself changes too rapidly. By the time a targeted mRNA vaccine can be developed, the target itself has moved.
A picture can be worth a thousand words and here these pictures are easily worth three thousand.
Is Israel really that low comparatively in terms of share of the population that had been fully vaccinated? I thought it was much higher than that for them especially as they are now on the second booster/ fourth shot.
There's a ~5-6% lag in Israel between the first and second Pfizer dose, and an even bigger one for the third. And I suspect compliance in Israel has declined as the negative press for the inoculations.
Yet even at their relatively low vaccination rate, they're still getting beat by SARS-CoV-2 (Omicron)
Indeed. What would really interest me is why the UK's case count seemed to drop so much and so soon. Looking at the chart I do wonder if its related to the relatively high level of cases prior to omicron (so the omicron rise was exhausted earlier because many had already been infected in the previous delta perma-wave). But then Ireland should also have seen a similar drop like the UK, except Ireland is more akin to Australia and France in terms of percentage vaccinated and if the vaccine is failing (by not just providing no protection against infection but actually making it more likely that you get infected) then perhaps this accounts for Ireland....
Negative efficacy has been suggested by at least a couple of studies now, and the Australia experience with Omicron pretty much gives real world confirmation--Australia is essentially completely vaccinated at this point.
Eventually, a pandemic post mortem will be done, and my hope is that the multiple failures of the mRNA shots will get a full discussion and analysis. So much time and effort has been spent on what amounts to a complete boondoggle, while numerous viable supportive and curative therapies have been not just ignored but actively suppressed. People need to know just how badly the major pharmaceutical companies screwed the pooch here.
Historically, coronavirus normally mutate at slow rates, because they have co-evolved with us and animal reservoirs and are at a relative fitness peak. So, the vaccine must have seemed like a good answer to public health.
The problem is that SARS-CoV-2 is lab-made, and the original release was not highly optimized for humans or animals. As a result the main strains are changing like crazy: in less than a year vaccinated people have negative protection, and even prior infection with SARS-CoV-2 isn't that helpful.
The original SARS virus showed little variation, that is true, but as early as 2005 greater variation was observed in HCoV-OC43.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC7111800
Moreover, in August of 2020 some six strains had been identified. Paradoxically, the strains were considered "stable" despite having originated from a single crossover strain in the fall of 2019.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/08/200803105246.htm
The indicators for rapid variation, mutation, and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 have always been in plain view.
Even at that, a whole attenuated virus inoculation similar to the annual flu shot that exposed the immune system to the entire virus rather than a single spike protein likely would have fared better than the mRNA shots, which saw diminished effectiveness once Delta emerged as the dominant variant.
It's worth noting that, although several mRNA vaccines for influenza have been attempted, none have progressed farther than phase 1/2. I suspect that one reason for this is that the influenza virus itself changes too rapidly. By the time a targeted mRNA vaccine can be developed, the target itself has moved.
A picture can be worth a thousand words and here these pictures are easily worth three thousand.
Is Israel really that low comparatively in terms of share of the population that had been fully vaccinated? I thought it was much higher than that for them especially as they are now on the second booster/ fourth shot.
There's a ~5-6% lag in Israel between the first and second Pfizer dose, and an even bigger one for the third. And I suspect compliance in Israel has declined as the negative press for the inoculations.
Yet even at their relatively low vaccination rate, they're still getting beat by SARS-CoV-2 (Omicron)
Indeed. What would really interest me is why the UK's case count seemed to drop so much and so soon. Looking at the chart I do wonder if its related to the relatively high level of cases prior to omicron (so the omicron rise was exhausted earlier because many had already been infected in the previous delta perma-wave). But then Ireland should also have seen a similar drop like the UK, except Ireland is more akin to Australia and France in terms of percentage vaccinated and if the vaccine is failing (by not just providing no protection against infection but actually making it more likely that you get infected) then perhaps this accounts for Ireland....
Negative efficacy has been suggested by at least a couple of studies now, and the Australia experience with Omicron pretty much gives real world confirmation--Australia is essentially completely vaccinated at this point.
Eventually, a pandemic post mortem will be done, and my hope is that the multiple failures of the mRNA shots will get a full discussion and analysis. So much time and effort has been spent on what amounts to a complete boondoggle, while numerous viable supportive and curative therapies have been not just ignored but actively suppressed. People need to know just how badly the major pharmaceutical companies screwed the pooch here.
israel minister has virus after fourth jab