Presumably, Donald Trump has been able to get Iran to say “yes” to a possible deal over its nuclear weapons program.
Ali Shamkhani, a top political, military and nuclear advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is one of the most senior Iranian officials to speak publicly about the ongoing discussions.
He said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons, getting rid of its stockpiles of highly-enriched Uranium which can be weaponized, agree to only enrich Uranium to the lower levels needed for civilian use, and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, in exchange for the immediate lifting of all economic sanctions on Iran.
In principle, this deal addresses the major concerns which have been articulated by Donald Trump and his negotiators.
It means Iran does not develop nuclear weapons.
It means Iran disposes of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles.
It means Iran only enriches to ~3%, the level used in civilian reactors.
It means Iran opens its nuclear sites up to inspection.
The challenge, of course, is that Iran cannot be trusted—and no nation should ever be counted as trustworthy where nuclear weapons are concerned. As Ronald Reagan pithily observed during the Cold War: “Trust, but verify.”
Can the proposed agreement be “self-enforcing”? Can it be constructed to ensure that if Iran reneges on inspections, sanctions are automatically re-imposed? Will it be so constructed?
As I have stated before, enrichment is the key to the agreement—and inspections are the key to compliance.
Iran, for its part, has steadfastly maintained its right to enrich uranium, which immediately begs the question of whether they would attempt to exceed enrichment limits.
Can a good deal be constructed out of these terms? Is Donald Trump showing some geopolitical naivete regarding Iran?
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All deals can be broken. At least Trump is trying to get the best possible deal while avoiding open war with Iran.