A bit off-topic, but it might pertain to jobs: there is economic chatter now that the Japanese bond crisis will affect the carry trade which, when combined with unrealized losses on bank balance sheets (commercial real estate, etc.), will cause a huge crisis. I’m always trying to separate fact from sensationalism, and you’re the most level-headed analyst on Substack, Peter. If this is a topic you’d like to dive into sometime, I’m interested!
There is a reason I am always speaking of a jobs recession in this country. The US economy has not been producing the number of jobs people need, and real unemployment in this country is still considerably higher than the official numbers.
Unemployment is rising in this country, and has been. I doubt Friday's jobs numbers for May will show otherwise.
But the JOLTS report is a stronger set of numbers than we have seen, and the April uptick in net hiring is an undeniable good thing. So is a second consecutive month of manufacturing job growth.
Is this the end of the jobs recession? No. It may not even be a significant inflection and start of a positive job growth trend.
But the JOLTS report is a positive thing politically for Donald Trump, and if the BLS is truly done with Lou Costello Labor Math it is a positive thing economically for the country.
We need a lot more positive data, but the JOLTS report is a step in the right direction.
Love it! Thanks for hard data, Peter. You are an oasis of facts in a desert of propaganda.
The corporate media is continually trying to spin every bit of good economic news in an anti-Trump manner. My local newspaper yesterday actually tried to spin the idea of no taxes on tips as being a cruel thing! Their feeble claim was that this “might” cause customers to tip less, because people will resent that these tips will no longer be taxed. As if we are all so petty that we resent a waitress making an extra fifty cents off of us! FEEBLE.
The JOLTS data is not perfect, but the uptick in hiring and continued growth in manufacturing hiring are always going to be political wins for the President no matter who they are.
People always project their own biases onto other people. Reporters who suggest that people will tip less if tips are not taxed are essentially admitting that they intend to tip less.
A bit off-topic, but it might pertain to jobs: there is economic chatter now that the Japanese bond crisis will affect the carry trade which, when combined with unrealized losses on bank balance sheets (commercial real estate, etc.), will cause a huge crisis. I’m always trying to separate fact from sensationalism, and you’re the most level-headed analyst on Substack, Peter. If this is a topic you’d like to dive into sometime, I’m interested!
I haven't looked at banking specifically in a while, but the seeds of a financial crisis have been there for a long time.
Is the Japanese bond situation a potential catalyst for the next financial crisis? Maybe. We will have to see how that unfolds.
Little unchanged doesn't seem that impressive to me unless you are extremely optimistic, especially when "Mish" Shedlock reported a couple of days ago that Continued Unemployment Claims Reach the Highest Since Nov 13, 2021 - https://mishtalk.com/economics/continued-unemployment-claims-reach-the-highest-since-nov-13-2021/
And as usual, next month there may be revisions. Linking as usual, Peter. @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
There is a reason I am always speaking of a jobs recession in this country. The US economy has not been producing the number of jobs people need, and real unemployment in this country is still considerably higher than the official numbers.
Unemployment is rising in this country, and has been. I doubt Friday's jobs numbers for May will show otherwise.
But the JOLTS report is a stronger set of numbers than we have seen, and the April uptick in net hiring is an undeniable good thing. So is a second consecutive month of manufacturing job growth.
Is this the end of the jobs recession? No. It may not even be a significant inflection and start of a positive job growth trend.
But the JOLTS report is a positive thing politically for Donald Trump, and if the BLS is truly done with Lou Costello Labor Math it is a positive thing economically for the country.
We need a lot more positive data, but the JOLTS report is a step in the right direction.
Love it! Thanks for hard data, Peter. You are an oasis of facts in a desert of propaganda.
The corporate media is continually trying to spin every bit of good economic news in an anti-Trump manner. My local newspaper yesterday actually tried to spin the idea of no taxes on tips as being a cruel thing! Their feeble claim was that this “might” cause customers to tip less, because people will resent that these tips will no longer be taxed. As if we are all so petty that we resent a waitress making an extra fifty cents off of us! FEEBLE.
The JOLTS data is not perfect, but the uptick in hiring and continued growth in manufacturing hiring are always going to be political wins for the President no matter who they are.
People always project their own biases onto other people. Reporters who suggest that people will tip less if tips are not taxed are essentially admitting that they intend to tip less.
What a wise insight, Peter! You’re right, people give themselves away in showing their mean-spirited thinking!