April PCE Data Confirms Disinflation
Cleveland Fed's Nowcast Was Not Positive Enough
Update
Apparently the Cleveland Fed was not optimistic enough, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ Personal Income and Outlays report for April.
From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 2.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.5 percent from one year ago.
That's 0.1pp lower than projected.
The headline numbers are indisputably good for Trump Administration. Corporate media will not be pleased.
Starting Point
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s nowcast on inflation is projecting further inflation declines in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for April
The latest nowcast on inflation per the PCEPI month on month shows core inflation for April declining to 0.2%. Headline inflation was always fated to rise because March printed deflation month on month.
Year on year, the Cleveland Fed is projecting the PCEPI will decline at both the headline and core levels for April, coming in at 2.23% and 2.60%, respectively.
With the Bureau of Economic Analysis about to release the official numbers, we shall soon see how far off the InflationNow projections are. Historically, the Cleveland Fed’s nowcast is generally not far off the mark.
That would mean yet another month when the anti-Trump naysayers are still wrong that President Trump is going to bring back high inflation and cause a recession in this country.
So far, so good? I certainly hope so!
LOL! Peter, you could make a seriously funny post comparing these disinflation figures against the hysterical headlines from corporate media during Feb and March. Corporate media was SO WRONG. They should have to eat their words. The economic analysts who predicted high inflation should have to apologize and resign.
Meanwhile, Peter admirably relies on facts, not anti-Trump bias. Magnificent Man!