Ceasefire? Or No Ceasefire?
The Ceasefire Wobbled But Is Holding
Less that four hours after India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire, there are reports that Pakistan is violating that ceasefire agreement.
Three-and-a-half hours after India and Pakistan reached an understanding on a ceasefire, Pakistani drones were spotted in a number of border cities, including Jammu and Srinagar. Jammu air defence system has been activated, sources said. Armed forces have been instructed to deal strongly with any instances of violations by Pakistan, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said in a late-night briefing
The Indian head of Jammu-Kashmir, Omar Abdullah, went on X a few hours ago stating that explosions were being heard in Srinigar.
Abdullah also posted a video which he claimed was of air defense units in Srinigar engaging with targets.
Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar went on Pakistani news outlet Geo News to say there had been no ceasefire violation. That claim was reiterated by Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s Prime Minister.
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said later on Saturday he believes the long-running dispute over Kashmir and water-sharing with India will be resolved. “For the benefit of everybody, we have made this agreement of ceasefire and we have been very positive about it,” he said in a televised address.
Update 5:30PM CDT 10 May 2025
Pakistan is reiterating its commitment to the ceasefire, despite earlier claims on both sides of violations.
The bulk of Southeast Asia has been praising both Pakistan and India for the ceasefire agreement, encouraging the leaders on both sides to use diplomacy to resolve their disputes rather than war.
We can put that praise in perspective by considering for a moment just how widespread the attacks and incursions were on both sides of the India-Pakistani border. Just a quick examination of the airbases attacked on both sides is grim testament to how intense this conflict was poised to become (and, unless the ceasefire holds,, could still become).
This conflict ranged far beyond the disputed region of Kashmir.
The two countries were escalating on a path towards total war, and quite possibly nuclear war. That is not an exaggerated assessment of where the conflict stood just last night.
This morning India and Pakistan took a very large step back from the brink. There have been a few stumbles, but so far both countries are remaining committed to the ceasefire.
The ceasefire comes with a glimmer of hope, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that the ceasefire will be the first step in a negotiation on a number of concerns between the two countries.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he and Vice President JD Vance had engaged with senior officials from both countries over the past 48 hours. They included Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Sharif, India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Asim Munir.
Rubio said the two governments agreed to “start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site.”
India and Pakistan have taken a tentative step towards peace, and a fitful one.
They have taken a determined step towards peace.
At present there do not appear to be any more ceasefire violations, and the ceasefire itself is holding. Hopefully that will create enough space for the needed additional negotiations to resolve all of the conflicts instigated by the Pahalgam massacre last month, and all the longstanding conflicts which have simmered almost since independence.
There was some wobbling at first, but the ceasefire is still holding. Pray that it continues to hold.
Update 3:00PM CDT 10 May 2025
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry, perhaps predictably, is pointing the finger of blame at India for any ceasefire violations.
In Islamabad, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry blamed Indian forces for initiating the ceasefire violation. The ministry said Pakistan remains committed to the agreement and its forces were handling the situation with responsibility and restraint.
Other than Omar Abdullah’s X-posted video and other reports of explosions in and around Jammu and Srinigar, it is unclear how extensive any potential ceasefire violations are. There are, as of this writing, no confirmations of any actions by India which could be counted as a violation of the ceasefire agreement.
The ceasefire agreement at the moment has not broken down completely—at least, not yet.
Will the ceasefire hold?
Right now, that is a damn good question with absolutely no answer.
