The job numbers have been cooked for decades. The “economy is strong” has been a falsehood predating Obama. How and why? There’s the economy of the laptop class and the investing class. Other than a 2007-2009 blip they’ve been doing great. Everyone else, covered with mounds of debt.
But the “times are a changing.” AI along with offshoring is now replacing the IT/Laptop class. Hundreds of thousands being thrown out of work. I’m part of that group but I need just another year to retirement, four years if I want to make it to age 70 for a higher SS payout.
You can’t tell many people this. They think their IT skills are so special the six figure jobs will always be there.
I saw a post from Geiger Capital that stated 1.8 million foreigners have lost jobs in the US over the last 4 months. Meanwhile, 1.5 million native-born Americans landed new jobs over the same period. That's an interesting conversion rate. If true, the low job numbers may be distorted. Native born Americans had a terrible time getting jobs under Biden. If they're truly getting jobs over foreigners, that's a good thing. Curious if you've had a chance to look at that.
I haven’t examined the native vs foreign labor force topic recently, but there was no doubt last fall that foreign born labor was enjoying a clear advantage in the job market.
With a declining employment-population ratio, the last thing this country should be doing is importing more workers.
Between the declining employment-population ratio and the number of workers not in the labor force, this country is not even in the same galaxy as full employment. Both the employment population ratio and the labor force participation rate need to be brought way up if the economy is to be regarded as at all healthy, and thus far Trump’s economic moves have not had the necessary effect on either metric.
The data is very clear. Each month you post your BLS analysis I am always befuddled - why can Peter see this but the bureaucrats can’t? Just what the heck? End the BLS!
I have long ago stopped expecting much good from government, but this incompetence is just pathetic. Peter, maybe you could come to national prominence by launching a campaign showing how worthless this agency is, and Trump could hear about it and slash it via DOGE. You’d be doing a national service!
In an information age, I doubt we can ever be fully rid of bureaucracies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. If people want this sort of data someone has to be collecting it.
However, whomever is going to be gathering the data needs to be a lot more rigorous in their methodologies than we have seen recently from the BLS (and, truthfully, from the BEA as well). There is no excuse for Lou Costello Labor Math.
Yes, I’m always asking you to speculate - but that’s because your opinion is so intelligently level-headed.
Another thought I had was that she could be bailing for the sake of her future career. Perhaps like yourself, she can see that Powell has been making the wrong calls, and she wants to disassociate herself before the Fed becomes a laughing stock in the financial world.
Pure speculation, of course - but I bet I’m not the only one musing on this right now.
By definition, whenever someone resigns, they are doing so for the sake of their future career. That's what a resignation is, a choice to move in a different direction.
Is she bailing on a sinking ship? It's possible. It's also possible she's tired of the politics and the BS, and she might just miss academics.
Regardless of her motives, however, she's creating an opportunity for President Trump. That much is not speculation.
The job numbers have been cooked for decades. The “economy is strong” has been a falsehood predating Obama. How and why? There’s the economy of the laptop class and the investing class. Other than a 2007-2009 blip they’ve been doing great. Everyone else, covered with mounds of debt.
But the “times are a changing.” AI along with offshoring is now replacing the IT/Laptop class. Hundreds of thousands being thrown out of work. I’m part of that group but I need just another year to retirement, four years if I want to make it to age 70 for a higher SS payout.
You can’t tell many people this. They think their IT skills are so special the six figure jobs will always be there.
I saw a post from Geiger Capital that stated 1.8 million foreigners have lost jobs in the US over the last 4 months. Meanwhile, 1.5 million native-born Americans landed new jobs over the same period. That's an interesting conversion rate. If true, the low job numbers may be distorted. Native born Americans had a terrible time getting jobs under Biden. If they're truly getting jobs over foreigners, that's a good thing. Curious if you've had a chance to look at that.
https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1951266734171726291
I haven’t examined the native vs foreign labor force topic recently, but there was no doubt last fall that foreign born labor was enjoying a clear advantage in the job market.
With a declining employment-population ratio, the last thing this country should be doing is importing more workers.
Between the declining employment-population ratio and the number of workers not in the labor force, this country is not even in the same galaxy as full employment. Both the employment population ratio and the labor force participation rate need to be brought way up if the economy is to be regarded as at all healthy, and thus far Trump’s economic moves have not had the necessary effect on either metric.
The data is very clear. Each month you post your BLS analysis I am always befuddled - why can Peter see this but the bureaucrats can’t? Just what the heck? End the BLS!
I have long ago stopped expecting much good from government, but this incompetence is just pathetic. Peter, maybe you could come to national prominence by launching a campaign showing how worthless this agency is, and Trump could hear about it and slash it via DOGE. You’d be doing a national service!
In an information age, I doubt we can ever be fully rid of bureaucracies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Bureau of Economic Analysis. If people want this sort of data someone has to be collecting it.
However, whomever is going to be gathering the data needs to be a lot more rigorous in their methodologies than we have seen recently from the BLS (and, truthfully, from the BEA as well). There is no excuse for Lou Costello Labor Math.
Bureaucrats and the thousands of PHd’s in the Fed and Fred Powell and the Fed board - none of them see this?
I have said it before: these days "expert" is wokespeak for "blithering idiot."
The number crunchers in Washington prove this to be true just about every time they release some data.
Frankly, I would be thrilled to be wrong. So far, my take on the data appears to be standing the test of time.
Hey, Peter - do you read anything into this news item?
https://www.theepochtimes.com/us/fed-governor-kugler-is-resigning-giving-trump-a-nominee-on-interest-rate-setting-committee-5895582?utm_source=ref_share&utm_campaign=copy
It gives President Trump a chance to shift the balance of power on the FOMC. That could prove useful for him.
It may also help put pressure on Powell to get off his high horse and lower the federal funds rate.
Are there larger significances to her resignation? Possibly, but I would be speculating to guess what they are.
Yes, I’m always asking you to speculate - but that’s because your opinion is so intelligently level-headed.
Another thought I had was that she could be bailing for the sake of her future career. Perhaps like yourself, she can see that Powell has been making the wrong calls, and she wants to disassociate herself before the Fed becomes a laughing stock in the financial world.
Pure speculation, of course - but I bet I’m not the only one musing on this right now.
By definition, whenever someone resigns, they are doing so for the sake of their future career. That's what a resignation is, a choice to move in a different direction.
Is she bailing on a sinking ship? It's possible. It's also possible she's tired of the politics and the BS, and she might just miss academics.
Regardless of her motives, however, she's creating an opportunity for President Trump. That much is not speculation.
It’s baffling, isn’t it? Just What. The. Heck.
Yup. 🤷🏽♂️