More Inflation? Or Less?

Forecasts Say Less, But No Repeat Of March Deflation

This morning’s magic question: did inflation rise or fall in April?

Corporate media’s “experts” are predicting year on year consumer price inflation will drop, although a repeat of March’s month on month deflation is unlikely.

For the period covering the past 12 months, analysts forecast an increase of 2.3% — hardly evidence for the absence of inflation, though it would represent a slight decline from the 2.4% pace seen in March.

It is true that, on a monthly basis, average price growth was negative in March. For April, analysts have forecast a monthly increase of 0.2%.

Those rates are on par with pre-pandemic paces.

The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s InflationNow nowcast aligns with the Wall Street forecast, anticipating year on year consumer price inflation of 2.34%.

For its part, Wall Street is holding off on a repeat of yesterday’s enthusiasm pending the April CPI print, with stock futures ticking down ahead of the opening bell.

Treasury yields are also moving sideways in early morning trading.

Will Wall Street get another dose of good news?

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