Feb 24, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

Only the US can fight a war on the other side of the planet. Russia does not have the logistics to project as far, but within 1000km of the Russian border they have almost unlimited escalatory potential. Artillery, MRLS, EW, air support, air defense, short range ballistic and hypersonic middles, and long range standoff weapons are all fully integrated with infantry and tank armies.

While Russia’s new weapons systems are in serial production they can’t match the capacity of the US to manufacture new munitions and the numbers already created are supposedly pretty small, so how long they could maintain operational tempo in a war of attrition is unclear.

Russia will not attack NATO unless attacked by NATO, but has warned that interference in their “special military operation” in Ukraine will be met with force. They have made it clear that it will not only be soldiers but the people giving the orders that will be destroyed if Russia is attacked.

The Saker, Moonofalabama, and Andrei Martyanov have a huge body of work on these topics if you aren’t familiar.

Also- I believe that this is just the beginning of the actions Russia will take to regain the security it lost as NATO moved eastward. Expect the unexpected - the gloves are clearly off, the ultimatums have come and gone, and Russia has decided that the sanctions were going to come anyway so they are not a deterrent. Russia has made it clear that they will not tolerate the further subjugation of its citizens abroad and there is no further position for them to retreat to. The west’s refusal to discuss the security guarantees demanded by Russia, plus Germany’s dismissal of the idea that what has happened in Ukraine is genocide, plus Zelensky’s threat of developing nuclear weapons have led directly to the decision to demilitarize Ukraine and arrest those involved in the murder of Ukrainian civilians.

Finally, there has been a lot of talk inside Russia about war crimes so expect capture and trial of Ukrainian military involved in the aftermath of the 2014 coup.

Expand full comment