New Hampshire: Where Nikki Haley's Campaign Goes To Die

Barring A Complete Reversal Of The Polling Data, Nikki Haley Has No Chance At The Nomination

Today New Hampshire Republican voters are casting their ballots for their choice of Republican nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election.

Nobody expects Nikki Haley to come out on top in New Hampshire when the votes are counted later tonight.

Nikki Haley does not expect to win—as she all but admitted on Fox and Friends recently.

Even the governor of New Hampshire, Chris Sununu, does not expect to win in New Hampshire, despite predicting a Nikki Haley blowout just one month ago.

When we look at the polling data, it is not hard to see why Trump is by far the odds-on favorite. In the most recent Real Clear Politics Polling aggregate, Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Nikki Haley by three or four percentage points in the past few days.

However, the poll aggregate likely understate’s Trump’s advantage, as most of the polls included have been taken only a few times, and so they do not capture anything about the trend in voter sentiment.

The one series of polls that does have enough data points to begin looking at trend lines, the Boston Globe/Suffolk poll, not only shows Trump in the lead, but that Trump’s rise in voter popularity is greater than Nikki Haley’s rise.

Over the past eight days or so, Trump’s polling lead has been growing dramatically, far outpacing Nikki Haley. This is before we assess the reality that Haley’s support has dropped since January 21.

As much as Nikki Haley wants to put on a brave face about the defeats that lie ahead, New Hampshire is probably the friendliest primary contest she will encounter.

In South Carolina, Trump’s margin in the polls exceeds her total support, and has for quite some time.

Yet the polling data there also likely mis-states Trump’s true level of support, because only one poll has been conducted in the past month.

Haley’s chances are so remote even corporate media is not interested in covering the race!

Nevada, the other upcoming primary, is similarly disadvantageous for Nikki Haley—there has been only one poll conducted there since September!

Simply put, no one gives Nikki Haley any chance at all if she loses in New Hampshire by the anticipated margins for Donald Trump.

Will Nikki Haley pull off a miracle upset win in New Hampshire, which would breathe new life into her campaign? It’s not impossible…but I would not bet any money on it.

New Hampshire is on track to be the state where Nikki Haley’s Presidential campaign goes to die.