Russia’s Ambassador to the United States Anatoly Antonov is asserting—loudly—that Ukraine is planning to deploy some sort of “dirty bomb”, a radiological weapon designed to spread nuclear radiation without using a nuclear detonation, perhaps involving a provocation at a nuclear power plant.
At this juncture, any nuclear or radiological event is most likely going to have Putin's fingerprints all over it. There is no military nor political benefit for Ukraine, despite what Putin's people say.
Now that Kherson has been surrendered, the military question becomes how can Putin hang on to the "land bridge" to Crimea, and, from the Ukrainian side, how to sever that same "land bridge".
That's a smaller task than it might first appear. The Crimean peninsula joins to Ukraine proper at a fairly narrow strip of land. the Isthmus of Perekop, with the Black Sea on one side and the Sea of Azov on the other. The land between the Dnipro and the Isthmus of Perekop is fairly flat terrain, which makes it hard to defend and easy to maneuver. If Ukraine can drive a wedge through to the Sea of Azov the land bridge is severed--and potentially a large number of Russian formations are effectively cut off from the rest of the front lines.
There's not a natural defensive position to take east of Kherson and the Isthmus of Perekop, although the primary defensive points will be the eastern side of both the Antonovskiy Bridge and the Nova Kakhovka Bridge farther upriver. Any Ukrainian offensive to the east side of the Dnipro has to come across one of those two bridges. There is a highway that links up the two bridges on the east side of the Dnipro, so to hold the territory Russia has to mount a defense around that highway, otherwise they lose the ability to make the bridges a defensive force multiplier.
Russia can make Ukraine bleed for every square inch of territory it takes on the east side of the Dnipro. Russia will have to bleed quite a bit to do so.
If Putin is desperate to preserve the land bridge to Crimea, he might risk a radiological strike on the east bank of the Dnipro but west of the Isthmus of Perekop. Creating a "no man's land" in that area would secure the land bridge without tying down forces.
"Distressingly, we will not likely find the answer to those questions until it is too late."
I agree. But what "options" do we have? Other than "kicking it all off" with a nuke of our own!
Face it, PNK, this is madness! Madness! Yep, madness!
Madness?
This!
Is!
SPARTA!
(You knew that was coming!)
At this juncture, any nuclear or radiological event is most likely going to have Putin's fingerprints all over it. There is no military nor political benefit for Ukraine, despite what Putin's people say.
Now that Kherson has been surrendered, the military question becomes how can Putin hang on to the "land bridge" to Crimea, and, from the Ukrainian side, how to sever that same "land bridge".
That's a smaller task than it might first appear. The Crimean peninsula joins to Ukraine proper at a fairly narrow strip of land. the Isthmus of Perekop, with the Black Sea on one side and the Sea of Azov on the other. The land between the Dnipro and the Isthmus of Perekop is fairly flat terrain, which makes it hard to defend and easy to maneuver. If Ukraine can drive a wedge through to the Sea of Azov the land bridge is severed--and potentially a large number of Russian formations are effectively cut off from the rest of the front lines.
https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-cvtgt/Europe/?center=46.53997%2C33.89826&zoom=9
There's not a natural defensive position to take east of Kherson and the Isthmus of Perekop, although the primary defensive points will be the eastern side of both the Antonovskiy Bridge and the Nova Kakhovka Bridge farther upriver. Any Ukrainian offensive to the east side of the Dnipro has to come across one of those two bridges. There is a highway that links up the two bridges on the east side of the Dnipro, so to hold the territory Russia has to mount a defense around that highway, otherwise they lose the ability to make the bridges a defensive force multiplier.
Russia can make Ukraine bleed for every square inch of territory it takes on the east side of the Dnipro. Russia will have to bleed quite a bit to do so.
If Putin is desperate to preserve the land bridge to Crimea, he might risk a radiological strike on the east bank of the Dnipro but west of the Isthmus of Perekop. Creating a "no man's land" in that area would secure the land bridge without tying down forces.
As you said....madness.
Superb analysis.
BRAVO