The End Of The Islamic Republic Update: Ayatollah Khamenei Is Dead

Multiple Media Outlets Are Now Reporting The Supreme Leader's Demise

Early this morning (daytime in Iran), the United States and Israel launched coordinated air strikes against a variety of targets inside Iran, with the explicit goal of weakening the ruling Khamenei regime enough to allow the dissident population to rise up and topple the government.

Based on the latest reporting, the attacks—named “Operation Epic Fury” by the United States and “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel—succeeded in killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

While Reuters has not yet reported confirmation of Khamenei’s demise by Iran, Israel has been making increasingly confident “confirmations” of his death over the past few hours.

Roughly a half hour ago, Iran International claimed it also had confirmed Khamenei’s death. No details have been provided as of this writing.

At about the same time, Axios also picked up the story line, reiterating Israel’s confirmation that Khamenei is no more.

Why it matters: The 86-year-old Khamenei led Iran for 35 years, making him one of the world’s longest-serving authoritarian rulers. His death is a massive blow to the regime and could accelerate its collapse, which U.S. and Israeli officials have stated as their explicit goal.

The big picture: Khamenei’s killing sets off an immediate succession crisis with no clear answer.

• Under Iran’s constitution, a council of clerics is meant to select a new supreme leader — but Israel’s strikes also targeted senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders and political leaders, leaving the regime’s chain of command in disarray.

• Israeli officials say they assess the Iranian minister of defense and the commander of the IRGC were also among those killed in targeted strikes on Saturday.

As the corporate media grows more confident that Khamenei has been killed, alternative media outlets such as ZeroHedge are also carrying the report, although as of this writing ZeroHedge is being somewhat more circumspect.

Summary: Currently, the biggest question is where's the Ayatollah? Iran state TV teased an imminent speech to address the nation after the major US-Israeli attack, and in the wake of Iran's retaliation on US regional bases - and the Gulf countries hosting them. There were earlier rumors that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed, but nothing is verifiable. He could be deep in a hidden underground bunker, at a command post, known only by his closest IRGC associates. There are also unverified reports that members of his own family may have been killed. Meanwhile in the US some Democratic Congressional leaders are demanding an immediate War Powers vote, and condemn the Trump-ordered attack as an unconstitutional war on a foreign nation which has not directly attacked the US.

Iran’s Al-Alam TV had reported this morning that Khamenei would give a televised address “shortly”. There has been no reporting of such an address.

As I commented a few hours ago, Khamenei has not been seen at all since the attack began.

While Iran officially denies that Khamenei was killed in the overnight attack, no actual “proof of life” has been put forward.

If Khamenei is dead and the regime clings to a public denial of this, one tempting speculation is that Ali Larijani, whom Khamenei presumably tapped to take over should he be killed in a US/Israeli attack, is having difficulty consolidating power.

The key word in that sentence is, of course, “if”.

Yet so far we do not have reliable confirmation that Khamenei is still alive.

The most probable view of the extant reporting is that Khamenei is, in fact, deceased.

The lack of confirmation or proof of life for Khamenei from Iran invites speculation that there is a succession crisis unfolding within the Iranian leadership.

As reported by Axios, in theory the Assembly of Experts would convene to appoint a new Supreme Leader.

However, it was reported in January that, at the height of the protests, Khamenei tapped Secretary of the National Security Council Ali Larijani to take up many of the reins of power, and charged him with ensuring the continuity of the Islamic Republic.

Ayatollah Khamenei has instructed Mr. Larijani and a handful of other close political and military associates to ensure that the Islamic Republic survives not only American and Israeli bombs, but also any assassination attempts on its top leadership, including on Ayatollah Khamenei himself, according to the six senior officials and the Guards members.

Nasser Imani, a conservative analyst close to the government, said in a telephone interview from Tehran that Ayatollah Khamenei has a long and close relationship with Mr. Larijani, and the supreme leader turned to him in this time of acute military and security crisis.

“The supreme leader fully trusts Larijani. He believes Larijani is the man for this sensitive juncture because of his political track record, sharp mind and knowledge,” Mr. Imani said. “He relies on him for reports on the situation and pragmatic advice. Larijani’s role will be very pronounced during war.”

Reputed to have close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in which he served until 1993, leaving at the rank of brigadier general, Larijani is technically barred from becoming Supreme Leader as he is not a Shi’ite cleric.

However, there is rampant speculation that he has influence over just about every other aspect of political power in the Islamic Republic.

If Larijani is having difficulty consolidating his position, or there is a wider struggle for control within the Assembly of Experts, or even if there is an ongoing attempt by the IRGC to seize power directly, keeping Khamenei’s death under wraps might be a way for the factions within the Tehran government to maintain some semblance of control over the country while fighting behind the scenes over who takes control next.

Khamenei’s increasingly likely death thus leaves Iran’s government in a very parlous state. While it is too soon to proclaim the end of the Islamic Republic, it is apparent that Operation Epic Fury/Operation Roaring Lion has succeeded in delivering a major body blow to the regime, and quite possibly a fatal one.