Thank you, Peter, it feels like you have gathered information from a great many sources and put it into one place, just like the premise of your story! How can something so cool be at the same time so scary? I already know my cell phone knows where I am even when it’s turned off they say, it could be part of the problem. I thank Elon Musk wherever he is at the moment.🫡
There’s a lot of information flowing from a lot of sources—some of it good, some of it sketchy, some of it even irrelevant. The challenge is always to unpack the narratives to get at the underlying facts, at what can be demonstrably known. I’ve pulled together some of that information, but not nearly all of it.
Technology always has that paradoxical power to simultaneously liberate and terrify.
It will likely be years before all of the details are declassified, but there are so many interesting questions to analyze. How did this strike compare to the one on Venezuela, in terms of surgical strikes, expense, amount of preparation, coordination with allies, and so on? How much of each operation gives victory credit to the CIA, and how much to different military branches?
Meanwhile, how will this new victory affect negotiations with Putin regarding Ukraine? Are there any indications within China that our victory in Iran is emboldening opposition there? Could our tactics in Venezuela and Iran be used in similar ways to take out the top leaders in North Korea? Setting aside the question of whether we SHOULD or not, COULD we - and do those people in North Korea know it? Do the people there realize it?
You’re going to have a lot of fascinating topics to write about, Peter. Looking forward to your excellent analysis and insights!
As for Putin, he is already famously paranoid. He reportedly makes routine use of decoy vehicles, and even trains and planes to obscure his movements. It is not unreasonable to assume Operation Epic Fury just gave him new reasons to be even more paranoid.
As for China, there is not, at present, any indication of even a disorganized opposition to the CCP, let alone an organized opposition. A decapitation strike in China would not yield the same scenarios that will potentially unfold in Iran. Partly this is because China's historical cycle has for millennia been an oscillation between Imperial Dynasty and Warring States. A collapse of the CCP would in all probability usher in another Warring States period.
As for North Korea, political opposition to the Kim family is borderline impossible, because the North Koreans have a near deific view of them. The governing apparatus goes to great lengths to retcon the details of the ruling Kim's birth and life to connect each successive "Dear Leader" to Korean mythologies, making each "Dear Leader" akin to a divine being not unlike the Imperial Japanese rulers before WW2 or the early Roman Emperors. Until the North Koreans disabuse themselves of that notion, political opposition in that country is not happening.
It's astounding! Iranians are rejoicing and some Americans are irate and in my circles no one is discussing it, like the proverbial elephant in the room - afraid to celebrate crushing evil and they had opportunities to change. I hope the threats of curbing President Trump's use of military force will not succeed, he has been effective and precise with minimal loss of life (Israel's abilities are phenomenal and I'm so grateful we joined together in this). I hope a true democracy can succeed but corruption is systemic and in Iran the religious beliefs are used to justify its corruption. People call Trump a Bully but he's taking out the evil Bullies that harm hundreds of thousands. I'm glad to see tangible good triumphant over evil, but so many have warped minds calling what is good evil and evil good they cannot celebrate.
There's going to be a lot of debate, and there's a modest possibility a War Powers resolution gets through the House, but the odds of success drop dramatically when the resolution hits the Senate.
Contrary to what Cranky Thomas Massie and the contrarian-not-libertarian Rand Paul love to pronounce, the Constitution does not explicitly preclude President Trump's decision to strike in either Venezuela or Iran. On Iran specifically, ever since George W. Bush secured his rather open-ended Authorizations to Use Military Force from the Congress, it has been presumed by both the White House and the Congress that the President has more or less a free hand in the Middle East. Neither Rand Paul nor Cranky Thomas Massie have ever made serious efforts to have those AUMFs terminated.
With those AUMFs on the books, President Trump has an argument which is technically suspect but politically established: Congress gave him permission to strike Iran years before he was even elected.
Ultimately, any debate that gets held over Trump's use of military force will say more about the dereliction of Congress than anything else.
Thank you, Peter, it feels like you have gathered information from a great many sources and put it into one place, just like the premise of your story! How can something so cool be at the same time so scary? I already know my cell phone knows where I am even when it’s turned off they say, it could be part of the problem. I thank Elon Musk wherever he is at the moment.🫡
I’m glad you find my work useful!
There’s a lot of information flowing from a lot of sources—some of it good, some of it sketchy, some of it even irrelevant. The challenge is always to unpack the narratives to get at the underlying facts, at what can be demonstrably known. I’ve pulled together some of that information, but not nearly all of it.
Technology always has that paradoxical power to simultaneously liberate and terrify.
Which may be the coolest aspect of it!
It will likely be years before all of the details are declassified, but there are so many interesting questions to analyze. How did this strike compare to the one on Venezuela, in terms of surgical strikes, expense, amount of preparation, coordination with allies, and so on? How much of each operation gives victory credit to the CIA, and how much to different military branches?
Meanwhile, how will this new victory affect negotiations with Putin regarding Ukraine? Are there any indications within China that our victory in Iran is emboldening opposition there? Could our tactics in Venezuela and Iran be used in similar ways to take out the top leaders in North Korea? Setting aside the question of whether we SHOULD or not, COULD we - and do those people in North Korea know it? Do the people there realize it?
You’re going to have a lot of fascinating topics to write about, Peter. Looking forward to your excellent analysis and insights!
As for Putin, he is already famously paranoid. He reportedly makes routine use of decoy vehicles, and even trains and planes to obscure his movements. It is not unreasonable to assume Operation Epic Fury just gave him new reasons to be even more paranoid.
As for China, there is not, at present, any indication of even a disorganized opposition to the CCP, let alone an organized opposition. A decapitation strike in China would not yield the same scenarios that will potentially unfold in Iran. Partly this is because China's historical cycle has for millennia been an oscillation between Imperial Dynasty and Warring States. A collapse of the CCP would in all probability usher in another Warring States period.
As for North Korea, political opposition to the Kim family is borderline impossible, because the North Koreans have a near deific view of them. The governing apparatus goes to great lengths to retcon the details of the ruling Kim's birth and life to connect each successive "Dear Leader" to Korean mythologies, making each "Dear Leader" akin to a divine being not unlike the Imperial Japanese rulers before WW2 or the early Roman Emperors. Until the North Koreans disabuse themselves of that notion, political opposition in that country is not happening.
All true - but we could still be in for some surprises!
Peter, if you had to place a bet on which will be the next despotic regime to be overthrown, which would it be - Cuba?
Cuba's the obvious bet, because Trump has already put them in the crosshairs.
Now you’ve got me thinking in terms of timelines for that…
It's astounding! Iranians are rejoicing and some Americans are irate and in my circles no one is discussing it, like the proverbial elephant in the room - afraid to celebrate crushing evil and they had opportunities to change. I hope the threats of curbing President Trump's use of military force will not succeed, he has been effective and precise with minimal loss of life (Israel's abilities are phenomenal and I'm so grateful we joined together in this). I hope a true democracy can succeed but corruption is systemic and in Iran the religious beliefs are used to justify its corruption. People call Trump a Bully but he's taking out the evil Bullies that harm hundreds of thousands. I'm glad to see tangible good triumphant over evil, but so many have warped minds calling what is good evil and evil good they cannot celebrate.
There's going to be a lot of debate, and there's a modest possibility a War Powers resolution gets through the House, but the odds of success drop dramatically when the resolution hits the Senate.
Contrary to what Cranky Thomas Massie and the contrarian-not-libertarian Rand Paul love to pronounce, the Constitution does not explicitly preclude President Trump's decision to strike in either Venezuela or Iran. On Iran specifically, ever since George W. Bush secured his rather open-ended Authorizations to Use Military Force from the Congress, it has been presumed by both the White House and the Congress that the President has more or less a free hand in the Middle East. Neither Rand Paul nor Cranky Thomas Massie have ever made serious efforts to have those AUMFs terminated.
With those AUMFs on the books, President Trump has an argument which is technically suspect but politically established: Congress gave him permission to strike Iran years before he was even elected.
Ultimately, any debate that gets held over Trump's use of military force will say more about the dereliction of Congress than anything else.