Apr 5, 2022·edited Apr 5, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust
This should hold true if we are building natural immunity to a natural virus. But the UK has reported those with prior COVID-19 infection are about 15% more likely to develop a second Omicron infection. Whether this is evidence of a failure of natural immunity, a lab-made virus that manages to evade immunity or fallout from vaccination ("original antigenic sin") is unclear. Perhaps the missing context is to compare how often other respiratory viruses reinfect the same individual in the same season/year? White House Press Sec. Jen Psaki recovered from COVID-19 some months ago but was recently reinfected despite being fully vaccinated and boosted. She is by no means elderly and to the best of anyone's knowledge is not immunocompromised so what accounts for this? And to that end, is the CDC keeping statistics on reinfection rates?
Much confusion exists around why the CDC refused to acknowledge natural immunity on par with or better than that created via vaccination. One theory was that the CDC/FDA were intent on helping Pfizer and Moderna sell more vaccines. However, deviation from public health norms — i.e. recognition of natural immunity following infection, with some notable exceptions for HIV, malaria and similar viruses — would make sense if the CDC/NIH knows something about the origins/nature of this virus that the public does not. If, for example, COVID-19 is a product of gain-of-function research can we assume natural immunity will be durable or that that COVID-19 will attenuate into something harmless? Further complicating matters, leaky vaccines have been joined by leaky antiviral medications that promote the evolution of more, not less variants — at the added risk of more virulence. What the future holds is, unfortunately, anyone's guess.
Cross-immunity among viral strains happens even among SARS-CoV-2 strains. The data is pretty clear on this point. Cross-immunity from pre-Omicron strains to Omicron strains is limited, but it had also been shown that the reverse is also true--Omicron immunity provides minimal cross-immunity to pre-Omicron strains.
Thus reinfection with Omicron is less surprising, particularly in light of Dr Shi Zhengli's research into SARSr-CoV strains, where she notes that SARSr-CoV antibodies are relatively short lived.
Omicron is sufficiently different from original SARS-CoV-2 to almost be a novel pathogen in its own right.
Still, since SARS-CoV-2 strains are endemic in nearly all parts of the world, expanding cross-immunity among all SARS-CoV-2 strains should be the expected behavior. For a new SARS-CoV-2 strain to have significant pandemic potential it will have to be a departure from both Omicron and the significant pre-Omicron strains. While this is possible (and even probable on a long enough timeline), it is not something one would expect to occur on a seasonal or annual basis.
If departures from prior strains such as Omicron keep happening with regularity, that would lend statistical support to the hypothesis these novel strains are of laboratory origin.
This should hold true if we are building natural immunity to a natural virus. But the UK has reported those with prior COVID-19 infection are about 15% more likely to develop a second Omicron infection. Whether this is evidence of a failure of natural immunity, a lab-made virus that manages to evade immunity or fallout from vaccination ("original antigenic sin") is unclear. Perhaps the missing context is to compare how often other respiratory viruses reinfect the same individual in the same season/year? White House Press Sec. Jen Psaki recovered from COVID-19 some months ago but was recently reinfected despite being fully vaccinated and boosted. She is by no means elderly and to the best of anyone's knowledge is not immunocompromised so what accounts for this? And to that end, is the CDC keeping statistics on reinfection rates?
Much confusion exists around why the CDC refused to acknowledge natural immunity on par with or better than that created via vaccination. One theory was that the CDC/FDA were intent on helping Pfizer and Moderna sell more vaccines. However, deviation from public health norms — i.e. recognition of natural immunity following infection, with some notable exceptions for HIV, malaria and similar viruses — would make sense if the CDC/NIH knows something about the origins/nature of this virus that the public does not. If, for example, COVID-19 is a product of gain-of-function research can we assume natural immunity will be durable or that that COVID-19 will attenuate into something harmless? Further complicating matters, leaky vaccines have been joined by leaky antiviral medications that promote the evolution of more, not less variants — at the added risk of more virulence. What the future holds is, unfortunately, anyone's guess.
Cross-immunity among viral strains happens even among SARS-CoV-2 strains. The data is pretty clear on this point. Cross-immunity from pre-Omicron strains to Omicron strains is limited, but it had also been shown that the reverse is also true--Omicron immunity provides minimal cross-immunity to pre-Omicron strains.
Thus reinfection with Omicron is less surprising, particularly in light of Dr Shi Zhengli's research into SARSr-CoV strains, where she notes that SARSr-CoV antibodies are relatively short lived.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12250-018-0012-7
Omicron is sufficiently different from original SARS-CoV-2 to almost be a novel pathogen in its own right.
Still, since SARS-CoV-2 strains are endemic in nearly all parts of the world, expanding cross-immunity among all SARS-CoV-2 strains should be the expected behavior. For a new SARS-CoV-2 strain to have significant pandemic potential it will have to be a departure from both Omicron and the significant pre-Omicron strains. While this is possible (and even probable on a long enough timeline), it is not something one would expect to occur on a seasonal or annual basis.
If departures from prior strains such as Omicron keep happening with regularity, that would lend statistical support to the hypothesis these novel strains are of laboratory origin.
Corona bleibt für immer und Impfung auch!