I would suggest looking into Natasha Bertrand and her role in all of this. Suffice it to say she was involved in “verifying” Russian “disinformation” in the Hunter Biden laptop story. I think CNN is back to their old tricks.
Here’s the other aspect the “MSM experts” seem to be missing with regard to damage to the nuclear facilities - Israel completely degraded Iran’s air defense system. They had…had…the advanced Russian S-300 system and derived their own based on that same system. They also had older SA-2 and SA-5. They have been effectively neutralized and won’t be reconstituted overnight. The US and Israel have unfettered access to the Iranian airspace to strike those systems again as required in the near future. That’s a good thing and a definite medium-to-long term impact.
Will Putin front Iran some S300 and S400 units? Given Russia’s claims of deeper ties with Khamenei, that would be an obvious way Putin could prop up the regime.
However, it's worth noting that Putin did not tout such a commitment publicly while the war raged. That's the sort of substantive support Iran could have used to help build up an opposition coalition to Israel.
With Putin having his own issues in Ukraine, the question has to be asked what sort of support Putin can actually provide Iran. The assumption is typically made that these countries have the means to put up a serious fight, but Iran especially has shown that assumption to be problematic at best.
The challenge is with more S-300/400 is that the Israelis have actively shown that they are not as capable as (we) once believed. So not sure buying more of what didn’t work before is a good measure for them.
Maybe the Chinese would step in. Either way, there’s lag to procurement and any new system is going to require training or host nation troops to operate til such time as the Iranians are proficient…or undercover Massad agents sabotage them 🤞
I doubt anyone else has done such an excellent job of sifting out the facts in this situation, Peter. You are so impressive!
The unknown factor is what is the mindset of the ordinary citizens of Iran now. Are they feeling (convinced by propaganda) that this was an honorable negotiated peace, or are they feeling humiliated by a stinging defeat - one they will bitterly blame on the existing regime? Time will tell.
Any day we can wake up to find that a despotic government has declared an end to a war is a great day. And, let’s face it, any person in power, no matter how entrenched, is facing regime change when he’s 86 years old.
As I have commented before, the basis of Iran's theocracy, Wilayat al-Faqih ("Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist") very likely puts Iran's leaders in an awkward political moment.
The clerics are supposed to keep the country on the straight and narrow, and in Allah's good graces.
Iran losing badly to Israel and then having their nuclear sites significantly damaged (as seems probable) by the US is hard to reconcile with any notion of what it means to be in Allah's good graces.
If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his fellow clerics cannot uphold the will of Allah to the point where Allah lets them get spanked openly on the world stage, what exactly is their claim to power?
Autocracies as a rule tend to be intolerant of losing. A theocratic autocracy seems likely to be especially so. That could be a problem for Khamenei.
I would suggest looking into Natasha Bertrand and her role in all of this. Suffice it to say she was involved in “verifying” Russian “disinformation” in the Hunter Biden laptop story. I think CNN is back to their old tricks.
Here’s the other aspect the “MSM experts” seem to be missing with regard to damage to the nuclear facilities - Israel completely degraded Iran’s air defense system. They had…had…the advanced Russian S-300 system and derived their own based on that same system. They also had older SA-2 and SA-5. They have been effectively neutralized and won’t be reconstituted overnight. The US and Israel have unfettered access to the Iranian airspace to strike those systems again as required in the near future. That’s a good thing and a definite medium-to-long term impact.
That is an important factor, one which I did highlight last week.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/iran-israeli-war-who-will-win?open=false#%C2%A7iran-is-defenseless
Will Putin front Iran some S300 and S400 units? Given Russia’s claims of deeper ties with Khamenei, that would be an obvious way Putin could prop up the regime.
However, it's worth noting that Putin did not tout such a commitment publicly while the war raged. That's the sort of substantive support Iran could have used to help build up an opposition coalition to Israel.
With Putin having his own issues in Ukraine, the question has to be asked what sort of support Putin can actually provide Iran. The assumption is typically made that these countries have the means to put up a serious fight, but Iran especially has shown that assumption to be problematic at best.
The challenge is with more S-300/400 is that the Israelis have actively shown that they are not as capable as (we) once believed. So not sure buying more of what didn’t work before is a good measure for them.
There is that. However, Russia is the only likely supplier of air defense hardware Iran has.
Even Twelver Shi’a beggars cannot afford to be choosers.
But will Putin even do that much?
Maybe the Chinese would step in. Either way, there’s lag to procurement and any new system is going to require training or host nation troops to operate til such time as the Iranians are proficient…or undercover Massad agents sabotage them 🤞
Presumably, the HQ-9 is even less capable than the S-300/S-400 systems.
https://www.defencexp.com/chinas-air-defense-system-inferior-to-russias-s-400/
If so Iran is totally screwed. If they can't effectively defend against the Israeli Air Force even an attempt to rebuild Fordow would be a disaster.
I doubt anyone else has done such an excellent job of sifting out the facts in this situation, Peter. You are so impressive!
The unknown factor is what is the mindset of the ordinary citizens of Iran now. Are they feeling (convinced by propaganda) that this was an honorable negotiated peace, or are they feeling humiliated by a stinging defeat - one they will bitterly blame on the existing regime? Time will tell.
Any day we can wake up to find that a despotic government has declared an end to a war is a great day. And, let’s face it, any person in power, no matter how entrenched, is facing regime change when he’s 86 years old.
I’m optimistic!
As I have commented before, the basis of Iran's theocracy, Wilayat al-Faqih ("Guardianship of the Islamic Jurist") very likely puts Iran's leaders in an awkward political moment.
The clerics are supposed to keep the country on the straight and narrow, and in Allah's good graces.
Iran losing badly to Israel and then having their nuclear sites significantly damaged (as seems probable) by the US is hard to reconcile with any notion of what it means to be in Allah's good graces.
If Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his fellow clerics cannot uphold the will of Allah to the point where Allah lets them get spanked openly on the world stage, what exactly is their claim to power?
Autocracies as a rule tend to be intolerant of losing. A theocratic autocracy seems likely to be especially so. That could be a problem for Khamenei.
Thanks for the praise! it is greatly appreciated.