This doesn’t sound good at all. Peter, have you heard anyone in Poland actually suggesting an attack on Russia? Are they more likely to do so than Germany is? Trump has been voicing displeasure and a loss of patience, but has he said anything more concrete than that?
There has not been any reported talk of an actual declaration of war by Poland against Rusia, or by the EU against Russia. Trump would squash any talk of NATO going to war directly (although the entanglement of alliance may very well drag the US along if Poland or another NATO country becomes militarily engaged with Russia).
However, Europe’s push for re-armament plus the decidedly pro-Ukraine tilt of EU foreign policy makes the Polish/Finnish NATO exercises a potential cover to pre-position forces for an attack on Russia, if that is what is being contemplated in Brussels or Warsaw.
One possibility from these latest moves might be the resurgence of Warsaw as a continental power, potentially at the expense of Berlin. 300 years ago, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was the major Eastern European power, before Russia succeeded in helping the Don Cossacks slice off what is now Ukraine (only to turn on Ukraine and abruptly conquer the now unprotected territory).
Poland has been the most successful EU country in terms of building up its military, and in terms of numbers is near the top in terms of overall military strength. With three centuries worth of bad blood between Poland and Russia, any flexing by Poland could carry some outsized ramifications.
If Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet is weakened—and losing a third of the total fleet of 150 aircraft definitely qualifies as a weakening—the specter of nuclear escalation may be removed just far enough in policy makers’ minds that they might be tempted to roll the dice on conventional war.
No, it’s not been said explicitly yet, but it is definitely a plausible extrapolation from the current situation.
This should work out well for the Ukrainians. And Russia. And Europe.
Well the inevitable nuclear exchanges would be one way to resolve the current migrant crisis they are having across the continent.
Scary thought.
This doesn’t sound good at all. Peter, have you heard anyone in Poland actually suggesting an attack on Russia? Are they more likely to do so than Germany is? Trump has been voicing displeasure and a loss of patience, but has he said anything more concrete than that?
There has not been any reported talk of an actual declaration of war by Poland against Rusia, or by the EU against Russia. Trump would squash any talk of NATO going to war directly (although the entanglement of alliance may very well drag the US along if Poland or another NATO country becomes militarily engaged with Russia).
However, Europe’s push for re-armament plus the decidedly pro-Ukraine tilt of EU foreign policy makes the Polish/Finnish NATO exercises a potential cover to pre-position forces for an attack on Russia, if that is what is being contemplated in Brussels or Warsaw.
One possibility from these latest moves might be the resurgence of Warsaw as a continental power, potentially at the expense of Berlin. 300 years ago, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth was the major Eastern European power, before Russia succeeded in helping the Don Cossacks slice off what is now Ukraine (only to turn on Ukraine and abruptly conquer the now unprotected territory).
Poland has been the most successful EU country in terms of building up its military, and in terms of numbers is near the top in terms of overall military strength. With three centuries worth of bad blood between Poland and Russia, any flexing by Poland could carry some outsized ramifications.
If Russia’s nuclear bomber fleet is weakened—and losing a third of the total fleet of 150 aircraft definitely qualifies as a weakening—the specter of nuclear escalation may be removed just far enough in policy makers’ minds that they might be tempted to roll the dice on conventional war.
No, it’s not been said explicitly yet, but it is definitely a plausible extrapolation from the current situation.