Unemployment Numbers Another Small Trump Win

Initial Claims Fall Dramatically

Whether it is by luck or by design, this week’s unemployment numbers are another bit of good news for Donald Trump.

Weekly unemployment claims are down significantly, with initial claims posting a dramatic decrease on a seasonal basis.

In the week ending June 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 236,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 245,000 to 246,000. The
4-week moving average was 245,000, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 245,500 to 245,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.3 percent for the week ending June 14, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the
week ending June 14 was 1,974,000, an increase of 37,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since November 6, 2021 when it was 2,041,000. The previous week's level was revised
down by 8,000 from 1,945,000 to 1,937,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,941,000, an increase of 16,750 from the previous week's revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 2,004,250. The previous week's average was revised down by 2,000 from 1,926,250 to 1,924,250.

Initial claims posted a large enough decline to bend the 4-week moving average down. If this trend continues we may begin to see a shift in the rising joblessness trend that has been the norm first months.

Continued claims are still rising, however, highlighting that extended joblessness remains a challenge for those looking for work, and a reminder that much work remains to be done to end the jobs recession in this country.

Still, the weekly unemployment numbers are a small political win for Donald Trump. Any statistics which point to less unemployment and more jobs is a benefit.

Which makes the weekly unemployment report a positive coda to what has been a very positive week for President Trump. Right now, he's winning.