Will The Democrats Step Back After All?

Perhaps, But The Democrats Are Still Screwed—Bigly

The Biden brouhaha over his obvious dementia has been gaining momentum all day.

Consequently, an update from this morning’s analysis is appropriate.

First, we need to understand that the major takeaway from this morning’s analysis has not changed: the Democrats are still screwed, and bigly.

There Will Be No Stepping Back

However, there have been a few development that warrant further discussion.

This morning a story appeared in the New York Times that Biden had told a “key ally” that he was aware his candidacy was on the ropes.

Almost immediately, the White House took to Twitter/X to deny the report.

The veracity of the story is impossible to verify, as the “key ally” remains, for now anonymous.

“He knows if he has two more events like that, we’re in a different place” by the end of the weekend, said the ally, referring to Mr. Biden’s halting and unfocused performance in the debate. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive situation.

However, BusinessInsider considered the story credible enough to pick it up and run it as well.

Does this make the story credible? Not at all. It does mean the story is getting at least some traction.

Today has also seen the release of a new New York Times/Siena poll that shows Donald Trump widening his lead over Joe Biden by 2-3 percentage points since the June 27th debate debacle.

Donald J. Trump’s lead in the 2024 presidential race has widened after President Biden’s fumbling debate performance last week, as concerns that Mr. Biden is too old to govern effectively rose to new heights among Democrats and independent voters, a new poll from The New York Times and Siena College showed.

Today also saw Joe Biden and Kamala Harris making an unscheduled appearance on a DNC conference call, vowing to stay in the race and to stay together.

Joe Biden and his vice-president, Kamala Harris, made a surprise appearance earlier today on a Democratic National Committee call, reiterating to staffers that they are in this fight for re-election together, according to three people familiar with the matter who were given anonymity to discuss the private conversation.

For now, Biden and Harris are joined at the hip, although how long that lasts is now itself a matter of conjecture, as the most recent RCP betting odds have Harris beating Biden but still losing to Donald Trump very bigly.

Perhaps most significantly for the betting odds, however, is that Donald Trump’s odds have hardly shifted, while Biden’s have cratered and Harris’ have climbed modestly. Harris has clearly not so much overtaken Biden as Biden has fallen behind Harris—a distinction that makes a big difference for the dynamic at play between the two.

Yet regardless of the dynamic, the takeaway for now is that Harris may be becoming the more electable candidate between Biden and Harris. Both are still likely to lose against Trump, but Harris may be becoming less of an electoral disaster than Biden.

This is echoed by their approval ratings, with Biden having sunk to 38.7% favorable.

That puts Biden’s favorables even with Harris’, but with a higher unfavorable rating at 57.3% to Harris 54.2%.

Donald Trump, however, has higher favorables and lower unfavorables than both.

At present, Biden has not dropped out and there is no firm reporting that he is about to do so. There is reporting that the Democrats are steadily turning against him.

Can Biden weather this storm? It is difficult to see how he can.

At the same time, it is difficult to see how him leaving solves anything for the Democrats. They are still faced with an open convention, and they still have to decide to either unite behind Kamala Harris (unlikely at the moment) or draft a “savior” candidate.

Harris is far from a unifying presence in the Democratic Party, and an open convention would be a free-for-all among potential candidates none of whom credibly stood for election in any of the primary races.

Heads the Democrats lose. Tails the Democrats don’t win.

Regardless of who takes Biden’s place—assuming someone does take Biden’s place—that individual is starting several lengths behind Donald Trump, who has been building his campaign and making the case for his election for well over a year now. He stands essentially victorious against an unprecedented lawfare campaign to drive him out of the election. If Biden steps aside, Trump will have the added bonus of being able to brag that instead he sent Biden scurrying back to bed.

Biden’s successor would be starting with no message, no defining narrative, no polling or ballot-box victories….nothing to indicate significant support except the smoke-filled back-room support of Democratic Party insiders.

The last time the Democrats had to pull off a mid-cycle replacement was 1968, when Lyndon Johnson bowed out in March, leaving Hubert Humphrey as the establishment’s heir apparent, while Robert Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy built grassroots campaigns opposing continued war in Vietnam. Humphrey got the nomination but ultimately lost to Richard Nixon.

So here we are, mid-afternoon, with Joe Biden apparently still in the race as of this writing, but facing growing headwinds from within his own party. Yet those headwinds are still an ill wind for the Democrats, because Biden stepping aside is still not the end of the Democrats election woes, but the beginning.

If Biden does step aside—and that is looking more likely now than it did this morning—the Democrats are still looking at convention chaos.

If Biden does step aside, the Democrats still do not have a unifying alternative in the wings.

If Biden does step aside, the Democrats will still have to face uncomfortable questions about who knew what about Biden’s mental state and when.

There is no way to predict how this ends, but no matter how it ends one aspect seems certain: the Democrats are well and truly imploding.

To be blunt, the Democrats are still screwed—bigly.