Workers Likely To Lose Ground To Inflation In June
Consumer Price Inflation Projected To Have Increased Last Month
What is the June Consumer Price Index report likely to show for inflation during the past month?
By most forecasts and expectations, year on year inflation is likely to be higher than in May, but the increase is still relatively mild compared to the 2022 hyperinflation cycle.
Overall, economists expect that consumer prices rose 0.23% on a monthly basis and 2.6% on an annual basis, according to FactSet’s consensus estimates. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, economists expect 0.30% monthly core inflation and 3.0% annual core inflation in June. Data in line with these forecasts would be a significant change from May, when inflation came in softer than analysts anticipated.
The Cleveland Federal Reserve’s inflation nowcast is projecting headline inflation year on year of 2.64%.
Core inflation is projected to be just under 2.95%
Both headline and core inflation are being projected noticeably above May’s actual levels.
Month on month, the Inflation Now projections for June have been rising since the start of June, although the delta on core inflation over the month has been far smaller.
The greater volatility in the headline inflation figure suggests that energy prices may play a significant role in June’s inflation increases. With oil prices up through the month of June roughly 6%, the markets are likely charting an end to energy price deflation.
While oil is lower than it was at the start of the Twelve Day War with Iran, it is still higher than the start of the month. It is also worth noting that prices largely stabilized after the Twelve Day War, suggesting that June’s energy price inflation may be truly temporary and transient.
Retail gas prices also ended June higher.
Since peaking in late June, however, retail gas prices are thus far down in July, further indicating that the inflationary effects of fuel prices will be somewhat muted.
The projections are showing inflation warming up in the month of June. It is unclear the extent to which inflation is trending up beyond June.
Inflation is rising in this country, but not by the increments or to the levels experienced in 2022. Still, the increase is likely just enough to prevent earnings and wages from finally and fully catching up with the price increases since January 2021. That would mean workers are projected to lose a little bit of ground to inflation in June.
That would make the June Consumer Price Index Summary a somewhat bad report, but not a catastrophically bad report.
What was your experience of consumer prices in June? Did you see prices rise, fall, or hold steady?Please let me know in the comments or drop a note in chat.
Food prices are definitely increasing, even the deals on "loss leaders" to get people into the grocery stores are high. gasoline is still under $3 here.
Food and gasoline prices are still rising in Western New York, although at a reduced rate from last year. Due to increases granted by the NYS Public Service Comission, utility prices have dramatically.