Who’s “we” Lloyd Austin? YOU and your stupid war mongers now Chief War Hawk Cheney and his selfish daughter along side Blinken and dumbass Sullivan have done it. So pissed over loosing to Trump you assholes are trying now to screw the next administration, BUT you’re screwing us and you don’t even care.
Any confirmation or comment on the severing of undersea internet Fibre-optic cables to Finland and Sweden recently? HYBRID WAR seeping into the EU? Any Dial Up of tension in Moldova or Georgia?
Given the current state of relations between Russia and the rest of Europe, any and all such "incidents" automatically appear as intentional sabotage--which they very easily could be. The cables and pipelines damaged last year allegedly by a Chinese vessel dragging its anchor has not been officially called sabotage, but the media reporting is certainly leaving that option open.
Is it hybrid war? That is a possibility. It might even be a probability.
The big question, however, is "what is the point?"
There are quite a few telecommunications cables running under the Baltic, including Rostelecom's Kingisepp-Kaliningrad System which connects the Kaliningrad exclave with the rest of Russia. There are quite a few under the Gulf of Finland, connecting Finland, Estonia, Sweden, and even Russia.
Telecom cables like that are fairly soft targets and it doesn't take much to damage or cut them.
But the Gulf of Finland is also the location of two of Russia's main export terminals for crude oil as well as refined products (Primorsk and Ust-Luga)--which because of sanctions are cargoes destined almost entirely for Asia (principally China but also India).
Where it opens into the Baltic, the Gulf of Finland is only around 42 miles wide, which means the waters are either technically Finnish waters or Estonian waters. If things get that testy between the EU and Russia, cutting off shipping traffic out of Primorsk and Ust-Luga would be an obvious move by the EU and NATO.
Russia's energy pipelines are heavily Euro-centric, and there just isn't a lot of pipeline infrastructure delivering directly to Asia. Russia's pipelines to China, for example, operate at maximum capacity and Russia still has to deliver substantial amounts of crude to China through Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossysk on the Black Sea. Both the mouth of the Gulf of Finland and the Danish Straits are fairly obvious choke points at which Russia's oil export traffic through the Baltic would get shut down completely. If a war did break out between NATO and Russia, that oil traffic would almost certainly be shut down.
Did Russia sabotage the Finnish telecom cables? Maybe...but to what end? What is the strategic purpose of that seemingly random act of sabotage? Telecom traffic can to a large degree be rerouted, so cutting one cable is less economically disruptive than cutting an undersea pipeline.
Cutting individual cables strikes me as a high-risk/low-reward move. It's adding tensions to any diplomacy surrounding bringing an end to the war in Ukraine without providing any economic or military benefit to Russia. It would be a way to remind the EU states that Russia does have the power to hurt them directly without launching a direct military attack, but at this point provocative acts such as that are not likely to have the intimidation factor they might have had previously.
Even within a Great Power Competition framework (which is the framing I use for understanding events surrounding the war in Ukraine), provocative acts such as cutting undersea telecom cables makes very little sense. Muscle flexing is one thing, but the cable cutting would be an almost petty gesture, diplomatically speaking.
Which is a whole lot of words to say I am not sure what to make of that situation!
I should add, Peter, that I’m very relieved that you don’t think we’re beginning WW3. You have earned my confidence with your great analytical assessments. You have the best combination of objective analysis and high intelligence of anyone I know. Thanks to you, I can sleep tonight.
Trump has created the great expectation that he will very quickly be able to bring an end to the war. It appears that, in light of this expectation, Putin is trying to bide his time without taking radical action. Let’s hope that Trump can fulfill the expectation of peace he has created. Despite the MSM’s “black hole” on the casualty count, hundreds of thousands of our human brethren have been slaughtered there, and that slaughter is still happening at this moment.
In that regard, Putin may not be the biggest challenge. The EU may be the bigger complication.
If the peace deal has to be one that makes everyone equally unhappy, will the EU go along with that?
Several EU leaders have been making extravagant shows of solidarity with Ukraine. If they insist on Ukraine "winning", peace becomes a lot more complicated.
For whatever it is worth, my view is that the EU leadership on this issue is a paper tiger. They basically have no realistic choice except to follow the US. That might change one day if they are weaned off of US funding and military support.
I agree that Trump is inheriting a true mess. He will cut some kind of deal that will make the press howl; it will look like giving in to Putin (letting Russia keep territory, etc.), but it will end the war and allow most players to save face. I’ve read that Russia’s economy has tanked really badly lately, so Putin is going to need to end the war in order to just stay in power. Trump knows this and will play his cards well.
And yes, Biden needs to be held accountable in some substantial way - just not in a way that makes Harris President (shudder)!
The real challenge there is how much territory does Putin need to make it look like he won?
If he doesn't come away with at least that much can he remain in power?
If Ukraine agrees to cede territory what can Russia give them in return? Fork over Russia's gold reserves and then agree to fund Ukraine's reconstruction?
If Ukraine doesn't get that how long before a shooting war flares up between Russia and Ukraine?
If the EU doesn't get something from Russia the European economy also takes it in the shorts.
Every scenario has multiple landmines that can blow up any peace process.
People have excoriated Biden and former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for torpedoing peace talks early on, and there's some justification for that view, but no one should pretend either Putin or Zelensky needed much of a push to keep fighting.
If Russia and Ukraine don't want peace, they won't have peace. I'm not sure they want peace--at least, they don't want peace bad enough.
Yes, you’re right. But what do you do if two kids are in a terrible fight? You distract them with something like, oh look, here comes the ice cream truck, and then you give them both money to buy a treat. Trump will do some version of this - give goodies to everyone involved and distract them with new economic promises of grand rebuilding visions. He’s really good at that kind of deal making and win-win scenario.
Well, thank God for regime change - ours. Putin is in a corner with no good escape routes, and Trump knows that and can negotiate from a position of strength. Putin and Trump had a ‘good relationship’ (according to Trump) during Trump’s last Presidency. So Putin’s best option is to stalemate until Trump has the authority to cut all sides a deal. And he will (but whatever Trump does, he will be blasted by the MSM for it).
The question regarding the Biden administration is which of two paths will they take? They can go down in history as the administration that solved the dilemma and ended the war, or they can screw up the situation so badly that Trump will inherit an impossible task.
And sorry, but I disagree with General Flynn - under no circumstances do I want HarrIs to have the authority to launch nuclear weapons! What was he thinking?
It's his military background. He views Biden's approval of ATACMS use on targets in Russia as tantamount to undeclared war with Russia (and he's not alone in that view).
Therefore he should face the proper consequences. Generals and Admirals get court-martialed and relieved of command, so Biden needs to be impeached and/or sidelined via the 25th Amendment.
The challenge Trump is going to have is that these incremental escalations serve the purpose of keeping the war going. When everyone chooses war, how do you sell them on peace?
The only saving grace is that these escalations I don't see as leading to a nuclear exchange. That happens when Russia feels it is out of options. As long as the status quo is being maintained, that doesn't happen.
What happens when one of the players falters is the question.
If Russia falters does Putin launch nukes or is he defenestrated first?
If Ukraine falters does Zelensky launch Stormshadow missiles at the pipeline nexus at the Samara refinery and shut down 2/3 of Russia's oil export capacity?
If the EU falters does Poland or Finland go rogue to protect their own territory, putting Russia in the position of fighting multiple wars on multiple fronts?
If Trump can untangle this mess then he will truly deserve a Nobel Peace Prize.
Who’s “we” Lloyd Austin? YOU and your stupid war mongers now Chief War Hawk Cheney and his selfish daughter along side Blinken and dumbass Sullivan have done it. So pissed over loosing to Trump you assholes are trying now to screw the next administration, BUT you’re screwing us and you don’t even care.
Good analysis. Peter. However perhaps the subtitle should be Not Yet rather then Not Quite. Linking as usual @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Any confirmation or comment on the severing of undersea internet Fibre-optic cables to Finland and Sweden recently? HYBRID WAR seeping into the EU? Any Dial Up of tension in Moldova or Georgia?
Given the current state of relations between Russia and the rest of Europe, any and all such "incidents" automatically appear as intentional sabotage--which they very easily could be. The cables and pipelines damaged last year allegedly by a Chinese vessel dragging its anchor has not been officially called sabotage, but the media reporting is certainly leaving that option open.
Is it hybrid war? That is a possibility. It might even be a probability.
The big question, however, is "what is the point?"
There are quite a few telecommunications cables running under the Baltic, including Rostelecom's Kingisepp-Kaliningrad System which connects the Kaliningrad exclave with the rest of Russia. There are quite a few under the Gulf of Finland, connecting Finland, Estonia, Sweden, and even Russia.
Telecom cables like that are fairly soft targets and it doesn't take much to damage or cut them.
But the Gulf of Finland is also the location of two of Russia's main export terminals for crude oil as well as refined products (Primorsk and Ust-Luga)--which because of sanctions are cargoes destined almost entirely for Asia (principally China but also India).
Where it opens into the Baltic, the Gulf of Finland is only around 42 miles wide, which means the waters are either technically Finnish waters or Estonian waters. If things get that testy between the EU and Russia, cutting off shipping traffic out of Primorsk and Ust-Luga would be an obvious move by the EU and NATO.
Russia's energy pipelines are heavily Euro-centric, and there just isn't a lot of pipeline infrastructure delivering directly to Asia. Russia's pipelines to China, for example, operate at maximum capacity and Russia still has to deliver substantial amounts of crude to China through Primorsk, Ust-Luga, and Novorossysk on the Black Sea. Both the mouth of the Gulf of Finland and the Danish Straits are fairly obvious choke points at which Russia's oil export traffic through the Baltic would get shut down completely. If a war did break out between NATO and Russia, that oil traffic would almost certainly be shut down.
Did Russia sabotage the Finnish telecom cables? Maybe...but to what end? What is the strategic purpose of that seemingly random act of sabotage? Telecom traffic can to a large degree be rerouted, so cutting one cable is less economically disruptive than cutting an undersea pipeline.
Cutting individual cables strikes me as a high-risk/low-reward move. It's adding tensions to any diplomacy surrounding bringing an end to the war in Ukraine without providing any economic or military benefit to Russia. It would be a way to remind the EU states that Russia does have the power to hurt them directly without launching a direct military attack, but at this point provocative acts such as that are not likely to have the intimidation factor they might have had previously.
Even within a Great Power Competition framework (which is the framing I use for understanding events surrounding the war in Ukraine), provocative acts such as cutting undersea telecom cables makes very little sense. Muscle flexing is one thing, but the cable cutting would be an almost petty gesture, diplomatically speaking.
Which is a whole lot of words to say I am not sure what to make of that situation!
Thank you, ALL Facts matter✔️
I value and appreciate your input.
Grace and peace to you Amigo!
I should add, Peter, that I’m very relieved that you don’t think we’re beginning WW3. You have earned my confidence with your great analytical assessments. You have the best combination of objective analysis and high intelligence of anyone I know. Thanks to you, I can sleep tonight.
Trump has created the great expectation that he will very quickly be able to bring an end to the war. It appears that, in light of this expectation, Putin is trying to bide his time without taking radical action. Let’s hope that Trump can fulfill the expectation of peace he has created. Despite the MSM’s “black hole” on the casualty count, hundreds of thousands of our human brethren have been slaughtered there, and that slaughter is still happening at this moment.
In that regard, Putin may not be the biggest challenge. The EU may be the bigger complication.
If the peace deal has to be one that makes everyone equally unhappy, will the EU go along with that?
Several EU leaders have been making extravagant shows of solidarity with Ukraine. If they insist on Ukraine "winning", peace becomes a lot more complicated.
For whatever it is worth, my view is that the EU leadership on this issue is a paper tiger. They basically have no realistic choice except to follow the US. That might change one day if they are weaned off of US funding and military support.
I agree that Trump is inheriting a true mess. He will cut some kind of deal that will make the press howl; it will look like giving in to Putin (letting Russia keep territory, etc.), but it will end the war and allow most players to save face. I’ve read that Russia’s economy has tanked really badly lately, so Putin is going to need to end the war in order to just stay in power. Trump knows this and will play his cards well.
And yes, Biden needs to be held accountable in some substantial way - just not in a way that makes Harris President (shudder)!
The real challenge there is how much territory does Putin need to make it look like he won?
If he doesn't come away with at least that much can he remain in power?
If Ukraine agrees to cede territory what can Russia give them in return? Fork over Russia's gold reserves and then agree to fund Ukraine's reconstruction?
If Ukraine doesn't get that how long before a shooting war flares up between Russia and Ukraine?
If the EU doesn't get something from Russia the European economy also takes it in the shorts.
Every scenario has multiple landmines that can blow up any peace process.
People have excoriated Biden and former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for torpedoing peace talks early on, and there's some justification for that view, but no one should pretend either Putin or Zelensky needed much of a push to keep fighting.
If Russia and Ukraine don't want peace, they won't have peace. I'm not sure they want peace--at least, they don't want peace bad enough.
Yes, you’re right. But what do you do if two kids are in a terrible fight? You distract them with something like, oh look, here comes the ice cream truck, and then you give them both money to buy a treat. Trump will do some version of this - give goodies to everyone involved and distract them with new economic promises of grand rebuilding visions. He’s really good at that kind of deal making and win-win scenario.
I hope you're right. I don't see it, but I hope you are right.
Thanks for this analysis.
Well, thank God for regime change - ours. Putin is in a corner with no good escape routes, and Trump knows that and can negotiate from a position of strength. Putin and Trump had a ‘good relationship’ (according to Trump) during Trump’s last Presidency. So Putin’s best option is to stalemate until Trump has the authority to cut all sides a deal. And he will (but whatever Trump does, he will be blasted by the MSM for it).
The question regarding the Biden administration is which of two paths will they take? They can go down in history as the administration that solved the dilemma and ended the war, or they can screw up the situation so badly that Trump will inherit an impossible task.
And sorry, but I disagree with General Flynn - under no circumstances do I want HarrIs to have the authority to launch nuclear weapons! What was he thinking?
It's his military background. He views Biden's approval of ATACMS use on targets in Russia as tantamount to undeclared war with Russia (and he's not alone in that view).
Therefore he should face the proper consequences. Generals and Admirals get court-martialed and relieved of command, so Biden needs to be impeached and/or sidelined via the 25th Amendment.
The challenge Trump is going to have is that these incremental escalations serve the purpose of keeping the war going. When everyone chooses war, how do you sell them on peace?
The only saving grace is that these escalations I don't see as leading to a nuclear exchange. That happens when Russia feels it is out of options. As long as the status quo is being maintained, that doesn't happen.
What happens when one of the players falters is the question.
If Russia falters does Putin launch nukes or is he defenestrated first?
If Ukraine falters does Zelensky launch Stormshadow missiles at the pipeline nexus at the Samara refinery and shut down 2/3 of Russia's oil export capacity?
If the EU falters does Poland or Finland go rogue to protect their own territory, putting Russia in the position of fighting multiple wars on multiple fronts?
If Trump can untangle this mess then he will truly deserve a Nobel Peace Prize.
Very accurately reported. Thank you.
Blessed are the Peacemakers.
You said it, Edwin!
Amen.
Lord have mercy....