Well, the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine with the very obvious intent of absorbing Ukraine back into Russia would be a clue.
The rather farcical referenda whereby the occupied Ukrainian oblasts "voted" to secede from Ukraine and join Russia (Kherson and Zaporizhia had not had any separatist activity prior to the invasion) would be anoth…
Well, the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine with the very obvious intent of absorbing Ukraine back into Russia would be a clue.
The rather farcical referenda whereby the occupied Ukrainian oblasts "voted" to secede from Ukraine and join Russia (Kherson and Zaporizhia had not had any separatist activity prior to the invasion) would be another clue.
Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 is yet another clue. It's that whole "prior bad acts" thing you hear mentioned on "Law and Order" every so often.
So when Medvedev openly speaks of "revisiting" Poland's international borders, yeah, I'm thinking he's implying military action. That and Poland is hardly likely to just fork over territory back to Russia given its history of having been carved up by other nations over the past 300 years. It's hard to see the Polish people being down with that.
As for NATO invading Russia...no. That was never on anybody's radar INCLUDING Putin's. Putin's own comments regarding his "special military operation" attest to this.
That does not mean it can't happen. It does mean there was no indication that such an attack on Russia was in even the slightest way imminent. NATO encirclement of Russia has always been a strategic threat to Russia, but that is not at all the same thing as an imminent threat. Based on the reported numbers and where the troops were before Russia invaded Ukraine, there was no imminent NATO threat to Russia.
Strategic threat yes, imminent threat no.
As for everything the west has done in Ukraine being stupid...can't agree with that either. Cynical definitely, immoral probably, but stupid, not really.
Nuland completely outmaneuvered Putin in 2014.
The current NATO strategy of attrition warfare in Ukraine has likely caused a couple hundred thousand Russian casualties. Arguably Russia has incurred more casualties in Ukraine than it had troops in the invasion force. Based on the ongoing stalemate along the front line, Russia has not been able to amass sufficient forces anywhere along the front line to resume offensive operations--and this is after their "partial mobilization" that called up an additional 300,000 personnel.
If Russia does not find a way to break out of the defensive posture it has in eastern Ukraine and take the rest of the country, it will be in a WORSE strategic position than before the war. Not only will they have a LONGER border to defend, over territory that is itself rather difficult to defend (it's flat and mostly open), but they now have fewer troops, fewer tanks, fewer artillery shells, and a Ukrainian neighbor that is none too happy about things.
Which is what a lot of people overlook about how NATO is prosecuting this war in Ukraine--Ukraine does not have to "win" militarily for NATO's strategy to succeed. All Ukraine has to do is make Russia bleed enough so that further military encroachments on NATO territories are not possible for the next 5 years or so. If recent events in Azerbaijan and Armenia are any indication of Russia's residual military strength, NATO's strategy is working.
Well, the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine with the very obvious intent of absorbing Ukraine back into Russia would be a clue.
The rather farcical referenda whereby the occupied Ukrainian oblasts "voted" to secede from Ukraine and join Russia (Kherson and Zaporizhia had not had any separatist activity prior to the invasion) would be another clue.
Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 is yet another clue. It's that whole "prior bad acts" thing you hear mentioned on "Law and Order" every so often.
So when Medvedev openly speaks of "revisiting" Poland's international borders, yeah, I'm thinking he's implying military action. That and Poland is hardly likely to just fork over territory back to Russia given its history of having been carved up by other nations over the past 300 years. It's hard to see the Polish people being down with that.
As for NATO invading Russia...no. That was never on anybody's radar INCLUDING Putin's. Putin's own comments regarding his "special military operation" attest to this.
That does not mean it can't happen. It does mean there was no indication that such an attack on Russia was in even the slightest way imminent. NATO encirclement of Russia has always been a strategic threat to Russia, but that is not at all the same thing as an imminent threat. Based on the reported numbers and where the troops were before Russia invaded Ukraine, there was no imminent NATO threat to Russia.
Strategic threat yes, imminent threat no.
As for everything the west has done in Ukraine being stupid...can't agree with that either. Cynical definitely, immoral probably, but stupid, not really.
Nuland completely outmaneuvered Putin in 2014.
The current NATO strategy of attrition warfare in Ukraine has likely caused a couple hundred thousand Russian casualties. Arguably Russia has incurred more casualties in Ukraine than it had troops in the invasion force. Based on the ongoing stalemate along the front line, Russia has not been able to amass sufficient forces anywhere along the front line to resume offensive operations--and this is after their "partial mobilization" that called up an additional 300,000 personnel.
If Russia does not find a way to break out of the defensive posture it has in eastern Ukraine and take the rest of the country, it will be in a WORSE strategic position than before the war. Not only will they have a LONGER border to defend, over territory that is itself rather difficult to defend (it's flat and mostly open), but they now have fewer troops, fewer tanks, fewer artillery shells, and a Ukrainian neighbor that is none too happy about things.
Which is what a lot of people overlook about how NATO is prosecuting this war in Ukraine--Ukraine does not have to "win" militarily for NATO's strategy to succeed. All Ukraine has to do is make Russia bleed enough so that further military encroachments on NATO territories are not possible for the next 5 years or so. If recent events in Azerbaijan and Armenia are any indication of Russia's residual military strength, NATO's strategy is working.