I think your observation is correct Peter. The economy has shifted in ways that are not being shown accurately in the economic models and metrics used in the past.
One shift is in the increase of people receiving transfer payments - benefits - from the government. More people on disability, more Boomers retiring, more Democrat-controlled cities with increased government handouts, plus fraud that apparently has become widespread and normalized. All of these have resulted in an economy that is not as much structured toward productivity as in the past, and that’s not a good thing! Previous economic reporting metrics assumed an economy geared for productivity, not dependency, and consequently the projections/reporting/metrics are all skewed somehow. Economists need to figure this out, or we’ll be investing in the economy in unproductive ways.
Another shift is the increased propaganda that is everywhere! Corporate media, government agencies, NGOs, and private entities are constantly projecting pictures of our economy that are propaganda, not facts. The result is an economy where resources are misdirected. Here’s an example from today’s edition of the local leftist newspaper:
The propaganda in this article is that small businesses are failing in Minneapolis because ICE has employees and customers hiding in fear from ICE, when the actuality is that many customers are staying away from these businesses because of the protesters! We are afraid of our cars being vandalized by activists, and of being attacked by rioters. Mobs of self-appointed vigilantes are literally blocking intersections and demanding IDs from drivers trying to get through. Who wants to go to a store or restaurant under those circumstances? Yet, the media misrepresents the entire situation! How much do misrepresentations like this newspaper article skew the use of resources, and thus skew the economic figures and projections?
Bottom line: we’ve got an economy that has been losing jobs, as you’ve repeatedly and accurately noted, Peter. Thank you!
Peter, how do you square these reports with the tens of thousands of jobs going unfilled because nobody is applying? I don’t have insight into the entire huge picture — just firsthand knowledge from my little corner of the world that touches a few specific industries. Oil field services, refineries, shipping, logistics, commercial construction, manufacturing… these are areas where I personally know leaders of multiple companies who cannot find people. In many cases, they only need workers who are drug-free and willing to show up reliably. That’s it. They’ll train them. And these jobs start at decent pay and quickly (within 1-2 years) can approach 6-figures.
So what gives?? Your data show the economy bleeding jobs. My friends in industry have thousands of jobs going begging for months before they can find someone to fill them.
The first thing to emphasize is that with macroeconomic data your mileage will always vary. There are always going to be individual experiences which differ from what is depicted by the broader data set.
That being said, the elevated number of job openings post-COVID has never translated into an elevated hiring rate. Quite the opposite has happened: net hiring has been declining steadily in recent years.
Concurrently, the number of individuals not in the labor force who want a job now has been rising since 2023.
This is in addition to the number of unemployed workers, which has also been rising since 2023.
There is a clear disconnect between the job openings data, actual hiring, and presumably available workers. The simplest explanation is that job openings are overstated. If the number of job openings was realistic we should see that reflected in net hiring and we don't. We should also see increased upward pressure on wages and we haven't seen that either.
Could there be some artifact in the composition of available workers which prevents the reported job openings from being filled? It is possible, but on a broad basis the data does not highlight what that might be.
I think your observation is correct Peter. The economy has shifted in ways that are not being shown accurately in the economic models and metrics used in the past.
One shift is in the increase of people receiving transfer payments - benefits - from the government. More people on disability, more Boomers retiring, more Democrat-controlled cities with increased government handouts, plus fraud that apparently has become widespread and normalized. All of these have resulted in an economy that is not as much structured toward productivity as in the past, and that’s not a good thing! Previous economic reporting metrics assumed an economy geared for productivity, not dependency, and consequently the projections/reporting/metrics are all skewed somehow. Economists need to figure this out, or we’ll be investing in the economy in unproductive ways.
Another shift is the increased propaganda that is everywhere! Corporate media, government agencies, NGOs, and private entities are constantly projecting pictures of our economy that are propaganda, not facts. The result is an economy where resources are misdirected. Here’s an example from today’s edition of the local leftist newspaper:
https://www.startribune.com/minnesota-refugees-and-immigrants-are-hiding-in-a-prison-of-fear/601571791?utm_source=gift
The propaganda in this article is that small businesses are failing in Minneapolis because ICE has employees and customers hiding in fear from ICE, when the actuality is that many customers are staying away from these businesses because of the protesters! We are afraid of our cars being vandalized by activists, and of being attacked by rioters. Mobs of self-appointed vigilantes are literally blocking intersections and demanding IDs from drivers trying to get through. Who wants to go to a store or restaurant under those circumstances? Yet, the media misrepresents the entire situation! How much do misrepresentations like this newspaper article skew the use of resources, and thus skew the economic figures and projections?
Bottom line: we’ve got an economy that has been losing jobs, as you’ve repeatedly and accurately noted, Peter. Thank you!
Peter, how do you square these reports with the tens of thousands of jobs going unfilled because nobody is applying? I don’t have insight into the entire huge picture — just firsthand knowledge from my little corner of the world that touches a few specific industries. Oil field services, refineries, shipping, logistics, commercial construction, manufacturing… these are areas where I personally know leaders of multiple companies who cannot find people. In many cases, they only need workers who are drug-free and willing to show up reliably. That’s it. They’ll train them. And these jobs start at decent pay and quickly (within 1-2 years) can approach 6-figures.
So what gives?? Your data show the economy bleeding jobs. My friends in industry have thousands of jobs going begging for months before they can find someone to fill them.
The first thing to emphasize is that with macroeconomic data your mileage will always vary. There are always going to be individual experiences which differ from what is depicted by the broader data set.
That being said, the elevated number of job openings post-COVID has never translated into an elevated hiring rate. Quite the opposite has happened: net hiring has been declining steadily in recent years.
Concurrently, the number of individuals not in the labor force who want a job now has been rising since 2023.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1RiwJ
This is in addition to the number of unemployed workers, which has also been rising since 2023.
There is a clear disconnect between the job openings data, actual hiring, and presumably available workers. The simplest explanation is that job openings are overstated. If the number of job openings was realistic we should see that reflected in net hiring and we don't. We should also see increased upward pressure on wages and we haven't seen that either.
Could there be some artifact in the composition of available workers which prevents the reported job openings from being filled? It is possible, but on a broad basis the data does not highlight what that might be.