The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.4 percent on September 7, down from 2.6 percent on September 1. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the Institute for Supply Management, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth, third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth, and third-quarter real government spending growth decreased from 3.1 percent, -3.5 percent, and 1.7 percent, respectively, to 1.7 percent, -5.8 percent, and 1.3 percent, respectively, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.82 percentage points to 1.09 percentage points.
With two quarters of contracting GDP already down for 2022, the nowcast is inching close to showing contraction for the full year—and there’s still opportunities for the nowcast to fall even further.
Has Janet Yellen conceded that we’re in a recession yet?
Sep 8, 2022·edited Sep 8, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust
and isn't GDP counted in now-inflated dollars? if inflation is above the supposed "rate of growth" is it really "growth"? Read yesterday that Wal*Mart and Target may have sales increases but selling less goods at inflated prices causing inventory issues...
I suspect it actually has set in, and the political figures at the top of the government food chains are mostly trying to figure out how to avoid getting blamed for it (or, in the case of China, how to hang on to the tiger's tail a little bit longer, since letting go could be apocalyptically bad).
They are too slippery. They know how to distract. They know how to use our money to buy our votes. And there is always something other than their "policies" to blame.
and isn't GDP counted in now-inflated dollars? if inflation is above the supposed "rate of growth" is it really "growth"? Read yesterday that Wal*Mart and Target may have sales increases but selling less goods at inflated prices causing inventory issues...
"Nominal" GDP is in current (inflated) dollars.
"Real" GDP aims to factor out the effects of inflation.
The GDPNow nowcast is for Real GDP
Recession reality hasn't set in.
That's why almost every politician in the world figures that the dead horse of the economy can take a few more licks.... for the votes.
I suspect it actually has set in, and the political figures at the top of the government food chains are mostly trying to figure out how to avoid getting blamed for it (or, in the case of China, how to hang on to the tiger's tail a little bit longer, since letting go could be apocalyptically bad).
The problem is politicians don't get blamed.
They are too slippery. They know how to distract. They know how to use our money to buy our votes. And there is always something other than their "policies" to blame.
Pretty much.