Just when you thought you were done with the poster child for scientific bastardy, Anthony “The Science” Fauci steps back up to the podium with a prediction even the local weatherman could get right: COVID-19 will come back come the fall.
"I would think that we should expect that we are going to see some increase in cases as you get to the colder weather in the fall," he said.
The correct response to this amazing bit of pompous prognostication is “No sh*t, Sherlock!”.
Incidence of infectious respiratory disease rises in late fall and winter. With more people indoors, in close quarters, and with less sunshine hitting the skin, exposure to infectious respiratory pathogens rises at the same time the average person's resistance to them declines. Remember, COVID-19 is an infectious respiratory disease. SARS-CoV-2 is an endemic infectious respiratory pathogen.
What would be remarkable is if cases didn't rise.
Perhaps this will provide the impetus for a return to the traditional understanding of a “case" of infectious respiratory disease: symptoms plus a diagnostic test.
One can only hope.
Since most transmission happens within buildings and vehicles, and since the total amount of time spent in these hardly varies throughout the year, the common belief about "spending more time indoors" in winter driving influenza and COVID-19 makes very little sense. Variations in outdoor temperature and humidity hardly matters since most transmission is not outdoors.
What does change, on average, in a profound way, is 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels. Please see my arguments about this, which cite pertinent research. https://nutritionmatters.substack.com/p/covid-19-seasonality-is-primarily . In winter and before real warmth arrives in late spring, in-building and in-vehicle air is hotter and dryer that the outside and than in summer - and it is more likely to be recirculated. I regard this as the second most important factor in this seasonality. It is impossible to quantify it reliably, but I guess 70% or more vitamin D, 20% interior air arrangements, 10% other factors.
If the strong seasonality of influenza and COVID-19 (though COVID-19 is perturbed by new variants, lockdowns and so some extent quasi-vaccines) is primarily due to 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels, then it follows that population wide, proper, vitamin D3 supplementation would reduce the transmission of these diseases, probably below pandemic levels (especially with early treatments for COVID-19) all year round. This is not patented and no-one will make a significant profit from it. Quite the reverse - sales of drugs and vaccines would be very greatly reduced.