Hello Peter - Just got done listening to your 4/7/2025 +42 minute audio “Apocalypse Maybe” & reviewing many of the links noted on your post.
Thank you for both the very interesting & detailed filled audio & posted links. They definitely provided some needed “food for thought” & I appreciate the real time specifics for trying to understand what is (or potentially is) happening from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Interestingly, as of now (4/7/2025 @ 9:20 am CDT, all four of the market indexes (Dow, S&P 500 & NASDAQ, Russell 2000) are all trending positively up +3.5% each & Treasury Yields are also all up.
You are very welcome & I’m going to keep an eye on the trend of the Commodities Index $BCI & BCOM (which you indicated in your post & per one of the links showed it has actually been going down recently & pretty much contrarian to the immediate concerns of higher inflation).
Commodities are definitely one of the trends to watch.
In February, when there were signs that consumer price inflation was heating up again, one of the concerns voiced by Wall Street was that there was a coming "supply chain squeeze."
As it so happened, at the time there were several rising commodities prices, a trend that would be very much in line with what one would expect from a "supply chain squeeze."
One of the arguments that has been put forward about how tariffs would push consumer prices higher is that they would disrupt supply chains. Yet if the supply chain squeeze fear of February was occassioned by higher commodities prices, a disruption in supply chains should result in futures prices for commodities being bid higher. Yet for both energy specifically and commodities generally the exact opposite move has happened.
I cannot stress enough that on tariffs or any other aspect of economics, it does not matter what any "expert" says--and that includes me. It does not matter what this or that narrative predicts will happen. The ONLY thing that matters is what actually does happen. When people react to events either on Wall Street or in their own lives, they owe it to themselves to be reacting to what is actually happening, and not to what someone says could be happening.
Focus on the facts. That's how people stay founded.
I’ve been pondering, and still have just speculation.
But one thing is clear: the corporate media showed itself to be astoundingly ineffective. They did their level best to hype an apocalypse that was all Trump’s fault - and no one paid attention to them! Sure, some people sold stocks, but others bought them (to a much greater extent than was predicted, anyway). So the media is the loser here. They have egg on their faces. They showed that no one is listening to them anymore, and they’ve lost most of their power.
I count that a significant change, and a good day.
When I kept seeing references even in the media hit pieces on the tariffs about countries wanting to renegotiate, I realized that this was the first time since Doha that the world was seriously discussing tariffs and trade barriers on a global basis.
Until Doha cratered the entire framework of GATT was a big deal. The Doha talks were a big deal.
Now talking about tariffs is a big deal again. That just doesn’t strike me as something that’s all bad.
As I remember, the crash of 1929 didn’t happen all at once. There was a fall, a rally, another fall, etc over several days.
I know better than to ask you to speculate, Peter, but do you sense any clues at all to the pattern of the coming days? Changes in bond prices, or a huge rush to buy gold, or any even slightly worrying sign that the markets could still truly crash?
THANK YOU, Magnificent Man - that’s the clue we need: the margin calls, which haven’t really started yet! (Not being a Wall Streeter myself, I would have thought the margin calls would have started by Friday afternoon.) Well, I know we can count on you to follow those, if there’s any way to do so. And if there isn’t any publicly-available record of margin calls, then it will just be a surprise…whee!
The complete peak to trough decline in 1929 actually took about three years, until 1932.
There is no pattern as of yet. That's why the assessment is "nobody knows". Until there's a pattern nobody is going to know.
What I do know on bond yields is that they dropped last week but went back up today. So there was a flight to safety and then a reversal.
Gold and Bitcoin are following the stock market down.
Commodities prices as I have already noted have gone down.
What I do not believe we have seen yet is a slew of margin calls. The margin call will be the tipping point. That's where the correction becomes the crash. When the margin calls start kicking in, you start getting forced sales and then fire sales, and that precipitates more margin calls, and that becomes a downward spiral that takes out everything.
No margin call means the market will survive. Margin calls mean the stuff is getting ready to hit the fan.
He talks to wallstreet because decent people would tell him to F off.
Hello Peter - Just got done listening to your 4/7/2025 +42 minute audio “Apocalypse Maybe” & reviewing many of the links noted on your post.
Thank you for both the very interesting & detailed filled audio & posted links. They definitely provided some needed “food for thought” & I appreciate the real time specifics for trying to understand what is (or potentially is) happening from Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Interestingly, as of now (4/7/2025 @ 9:20 am CDT, all four of the market indexes (Dow, S&P 500 & NASDAQ, Russell 2000) are all trending positively up +3.5% each & Treasury Yields are also all up.
Thanks again & take care.
Thank you very much for the kind words. I am glad you found the content useful.
You are very welcome & I’m going to keep an eye on the trend of the Commodities Index $BCI & BCOM (which you indicated in your post & per one of the links showed it has actually been going down recently & pretty much contrarian to the immediate concerns of higher inflation).
Commodities are definitely one of the trends to watch.
In February, when there were signs that consumer price inflation was heating up again, one of the concerns voiced by Wall Street was that there was a coming "supply chain squeeze."
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/inflation-rising-dec
As it so happened, at the time there were several rising commodities prices, a trend that would be very much in line with what one would expect from a "supply chain squeeze."
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/signs-of-a-supply-squeeze
One of the arguments that has been put forward about how tariffs would push consumer prices higher is that they would disrupt supply chains. Yet if the supply chain squeeze fear of February was occassioned by higher commodities prices, a disruption in supply chains should result in futures prices for commodities being bid higher. Yet for both energy specifically and commodities generally the exact opposite move has happened.
I cannot stress enough that on tariffs or any other aspect of economics, it does not matter what any "expert" says--and that includes me. It does not matter what this or that narrative predicts will happen. The ONLY thing that matters is what actually does happen. When people react to events either on Wall Street or in their own lives, they owe it to themselves to be reacting to what is actually happening, and not to what someone says could be happening.
Focus on the facts. That's how people stay founded.
I’ve been pondering, and still have just speculation.
But one thing is clear: the corporate media showed itself to be astoundingly ineffective. They did their level best to hype an apocalypse that was all Trump’s fault - and no one paid attention to them! Sure, some people sold stocks, but others bought them (to a much greater extent than was predicted, anyway). So the media is the loser here. They have egg on their faces. They showed that no one is listening to them anymore, and they’ve lost most of their power.
I count that a significant change, and a good day.
Corporate media does have egg on their face...again. That is true.
And I can't say that's a bad thing. Not at all!
Also, I’m glad that you ended your video by saying you are hopeful. I share your optimism!
When I kept seeing references even in the media hit pieces on the tariffs about countries wanting to renegotiate, I realized that this was the first time since Doha that the world was seriously discussing tariffs and trade barriers on a global basis.
Until Doha cratered the entire framework of GATT was a big deal. The Doha talks were a big deal.
Now talking about tariffs is a big deal again. That just doesn’t strike me as something that’s all bad.
As I remember, the crash of 1929 didn’t happen all at once. There was a fall, a rally, another fall, etc over several days.
I know better than to ask you to speculate, Peter, but do you sense any clues at all to the pattern of the coming days? Changes in bond prices, or a huge rush to buy gold, or any even slightly worrying sign that the markets could still truly crash?
THANK YOU, Magnificent Man - that’s the clue we need: the margin calls, which haven’t really started yet! (Not being a Wall Streeter myself, I would have thought the margin calls would have started by Friday afternoon.) Well, I know we can count on you to follow those, if there’s any way to do so. And if there isn’t any publicly-available record of margin calls, then it will just be a surprise…whee!
The complete peak to trough decline in 1929 actually took about three years, until 1932.
There is no pattern as of yet. That's why the assessment is "nobody knows". Until there's a pattern nobody is going to know.
What I do know on bond yields is that they dropped last week but went back up today. So there was a flight to safety and then a reversal.
Gold and Bitcoin are following the stock market down.
Commodities prices as I have already noted have gone down.
What I do not believe we have seen yet is a slew of margin calls. The margin call will be the tipping point. That's where the correction becomes the crash. When the margin calls start kicking in, you start getting forced sales and then fire sales, and that precipitates more margin calls, and that becomes a downward spiral that takes out everything.
No margin call means the market will survive. Margin calls mean the stuff is getting ready to hit the fan.