The Recession Is Very Real And Very Present
Great piece. I particularly liked the point about how consumer spending may appear to go up but it's only because they're spending more for less thanks to inflation.
To diverge a bit, I rarely come up with mental pictures of people but Janet Yellen is an exception. She looks like she should be wearing crocs and digging in a garden with a spade under a wide-brimmed hat — surrounded by flowers and enjoying retirement. Instead Biden has apparently appointed her to serve as Economic Gaslighter-in-Chief. I wonder if it has occurred to her that she need not stick around to "earn" the trashed reputation she will end up with by serving in this dumpster-fire administration? Why not retire?
"The Fed’s stated goal is to make everyone a little bit poorer"
This will happen whether they raise rates or not. If they raise rates, the economy will contract in nominal terms and people will be poorer. If they don't raise rates, prices will increase but incomes won't keep up and people will be poorer in real terms anyway.
The news is disheartening, but I'm grateful for the even-handed analyses you've been publishing.