The US is on track for its third straight quarter of economic contraction, if the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow Nowcast is at all accurate.
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5 percent on September 15, down from 1.3 percent on September 9. After this week's releases from the US Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7 percent and -6.1 percent, respectively, to 0.4 percent and -6.4 percent, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3 percent to 2.0 percent.
Three straight quarters of economic contraction, but the White House still doesn’t call it a recession, and Jay Powell still thinks the economy is strong.
The system is broken, and the more it rumbles on the more broken it gets.
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