The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.6 percent on August 17, down from 1.8 percent on August 16. After this morning's retail sales report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 2.7 percent to 2.4 percent.
Apparently the latest retail sales data from the Census Bureau showing no month-on-month sales growth exposed the sheer unreality of last week's nowcast calling for 2.5% GDP growth in the third quarter.
Another hopeful sign of a robust economy face-plants when gobsmacked by data.
A look at copper prices since April of this year make it obvious that the FOMC has done enough damage already.
It should not be a huge surprise that the economy is turning with almost the same alacrity as markets, what with China, Russia and the US simultaneously engaging in reckless and damaging flouting of economic common sense. A perfect storm?
Copper is revealing that all government subsidies for electricity are nowhere near enough to disprove reality.
Anyone wishing to see another example of the gap between government promises of subsidies and reality, look at a two-year chart of BTU (coal).
Subsidies have never worked and have always done far more harm than good.
They make for good short term politics, but are a disaster in every other dimension.
At the margin, government meddling causes bloodshed. I wish there were a politician who could tell this truth.
Unfortunately, that truth rather works against a politician's own interest.
If government is the problem (and it is), then the solution is to eliminate government.
And even Ronald Reagan, who was willing to say government was the problem, was hardly enthusiastic about reducing government.
A look at copper prices since April of this year make it obvious that the FOMC has done enough damage already.
It should not be a huge surprise that the economy is turning with almost the same alacrity as markets, what with China, Russia and the US simultaneously engaging in reckless and damaging flouting of economic common sense. A perfect storm?
Copper is revealing that all government subsidies for electricity are nowhere near enough to disprove reality.