Atlanta Fed Gets A Reality Check On 3rd Quarter Growth Prospects

Reality is slowly setting into the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow Nowcast for third quarter GDP growth.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.6 percent on August 17, down from 1.8 percent on August 16. After this morning's retail sales report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth decreased from 2.7 percent to 2.4 percent.

Apparently the latest retail sales data from the Census Bureau showing no month-on-month sales growth exposed the sheer unreality of last week's nowcast calling for 2.5% GDP growth in the third quarter.

Another hopeful sign of a robust economy face-plants when gobsmacked by data.