Placing current inflation on an “apples to apples” basis to make historical comparisons: if today’s inflation rate were calculated using the same methodology that was used in the Carter years, today’s inflation rate would be approximately 17%.
Placing current inflation on an “apples to apples” basis to make historical comparisons: if today’s inflation rate were calculated using the same methodology that was used in the Carter years, today’s inflation rate would be approximately 17%.
That certainly is the claim John Williams makes. Unfortunately, his data sets and computations are proprietary, which makes full scrutiny of his numbers impossible.
I will point out that his own narrative of his CPI calculations includes adjustments and calculations which were NOT part of pre 1990s CPI calculations, which inherently invites a certain skepticism about his numbers.
However, even Shadowstats does not fully capture the "true" impact of consumer price inflation for everyone. It can't. America is too geographically and economically diverse for any single price metric to adequately portray price levels nationwide.
What inflation indices tell us most accurately are general inflation trends at a macroeconomic level. What is relevant about the August inflation number is not that it's 8.3%, but that it's at best a marginal and even statistically insignificant decrease YoY. In this regard, even shadowstats numbers yield that same result.
Which is not to disparage Shadowstats, but to highlight the practical limitations of all economic datasets.
Thank you for pointing these things out! As I’ve told you before, I am not an economist. I am simply a businessman trying my best to stay informed so I can navigate current conditions and reasonably anticipate what’s to come (or what is not to come). I am trying to focus on sources that give honest and independent opinions (like you do) instead of listening to consultants who will take no risk and bleat out narrative BS like “inflation appears to be transitory.” Please keep it coming!
Economic data in particular is challenging to use properly, in part because it is extremely easy to extend the analysis past the point of logical support. The media both corporate and alternative frequently gets caught up in the headline numbers without drilling into the underlying data, which is where the real meat of the story lies.
Placing current inflation on an “apples to apples” basis to make historical comparisons: if today’s inflation rate were calculated using the same methodology that was used in the Carter years, today’s inflation rate would be approximately 17%.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
That certainly is the claim John Williams makes. Unfortunately, his data sets and computations are proprietary, which makes full scrutiny of his numbers impossible.
I will point out that his own narrative of his CPI calculations includes adjustments and calculations which were NOT part of pre 1990s CPI calculations, which inherently invites a certain skepticism about his numbers.
However, even Shadowstats does not fully capture the "true" impact of consumer price inflation for everyone. It can't. America is too geographically and economically diverse for any single price metric to adequately portray price levels nationwide.
What inflation indices tell us most accurately are general inflation trends at a macroeconomic level. What is relevant about the August inflation number is not that it's 8.3%, but that it's at best a marginal and even statistically insignificant decrease YoY. In this regard, even shadowstats numbers yield that same result.
Which is not to disparage Shadowstats, but to highlight the practical limitations of all economic datasets.
Thank you for pointing these things out! As I’ve told you before, I am not an economist. I am simply a businessman trying my best to stay informed so I can navigate current conditions and reasonably anticipate what’s to come (or what is not to come). I am trying to focus on sources that give honest and independent opinions (like you do) instead of listening to consultants who will take no risk and bleat out narrative BS like “inflation appears to be transitory.” Please keep it coming!
Thanks for the kind words.
Economic data in particular is challenging to use properly, in part because it is extremely easy to extend the analysis past the point of logical support. The media both corporate and alternative frequently gets caught up in the headline numbers without drilling into the underlying data, which is where the real meat of the story lies.