3 Comments

BA.2 is spreading in many areas, overtaking BA.1. In many most locations it is probably running out of people to infect - those who have either no prior immunity or immunity derived from an earlier variant infection or the quasi-vaccines which are based on early 2020 SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins.

All the reports I have read but one state that BA.2 seems to be no more or no less virulent than BA1. The exception is a U.K. Health Security Agency (UKHSA) report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1063424/Tech-Briefing-39-25March2022_FINAL.pdf which estimates the risk of hospitalisation with BA.2 is 0.94 that of Ba.1. However, the confidence interval is 0.88 to 1.00, so this is a rough indication of lower virulence, in a given population at a given time, rather than something which can be reliably extrapolated to all people.

Expand full comment

Because at home tests don't get reported anywhere and you just get a sick day from work when you get the sniffles. Does anybody actually go to a home depot shed in a gas station parking lot (I mean official state of the art testing facility) anymore?

Testing is only important when you want to win an election.

Expand full comment

The lack of reporting is a factor, no doubt, but with a test positivity rate in New York of ~2%, the question persists even within the population of people who have been tested and their results reported.

This goes back to a point I made back in 2020: mass diagnostic tests are not fit for disease tracking.

https://allfactsmatter.substack.com/p/testing-is-a-failure-at-tracking?s=w

Expand full comment