Presumably, a ceasefire now exists between Israel and Iran. Thus comes the question: will it last?
The immediate answer is once again “we do not know.” With reports already of ceasefire violations, whether the ceasefire can hold is simply not knowable.
This report comes close on the heels of Iran launching a last-but-lethal attack on the southern Israeli city of Beersheba just before the ceasefire was scheduled to start.
Unsurprisingly, members of the Israeli Knesset are calling for retaliation.
“Tehran will tremble,” tweets far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a member of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s security cabinet.
“Quiet will be answered with quiet, missiles will be answered with…?” tweets Otzma Yehudit lawmaker Limor Son Har-Melech.
The IDF is promising that there will be retaliation.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, in an ongoing assessment, says that “in light of the grave violation of the ceasefire by the Iranian regime, we will strike with force,” according to remarks provided by the military.
For its part, Iran denies launching any missiles at Israel after the start of the ceasefire.
President Trump is encouraging both Israel and Iran to honor the ceasefire.
For its part, Wall Street is anticipating the ceasefire will hold, with stock futures trading up in advance of the opening bell.
Wall Street’s most sensitive barometer of how it views events in the Middle East—oil prices—is also reflecting guarded optimism this morning.
To say that tensions between Iran and Israel are still “high” would be an understatement. We do well to remember that a ceasefire is not the same as a peace deal or a peace treaty. A ceasefire is merely a temporary agreement by the belligerents to cease firing—no more and no less.
That the ceasefire deal even exists is no small achievement. Still, Israel’s agreement to the ceasefire came with a warning that it would respond forcefully to any violations—while an understandable position such a caveat is also a measure of how little trust exists between the two countries.
Iran opting to launch missiles right up to the last possible moment is certainly no testament to Iran’s own commitment to making peace with Israel.
Is the ceasefire agreement merely a tactical move on the part of either Iran or Israel, a means of pausing hostilities while the two sides reconstitute and reorganize their respective forces after a week of war? We should not rule out that possibility.
Has the ceasefire already been broken by Iran? Israel says it has, Iran says it hasn’t.
Getting a ceasefire agreement in place was a tremendous accomplishment by President Trump. Keeping that ceasefire in place will be an even bigger accomplishment by all sides.
Cross your fingers, folks!
I hope and pray it holds, but it won’t hold for long because of ideology and Iran’s rooted hatred towards who they deem little satan (Israel) and big/great satan (USA). Westerners don’t understand the mindset of the Middle East as they enjoy so much religious and political freedoms. Iran and fellow neighbors have a disposition of a dark unregenerate heart that will not cease. A less example is the child told to sit down and is sitting but says “I’m standing up on the inside” and future resistance will ensue in action because of this mindset. I am grateful and thankful for peace while it exists and will continue to pray for peace.