It’s an interesting read, and highlights the investment side of rare earths .
China’s rare earths reserves are a potent economic resource for the Middle Kingdom, but effectively utilizing that resource while contending with a collapsing economy (and a collapsing demographic which is only going to accelerate the economic collapse in the years ahead) is going to be quite the challenge.
In an ideal world, China would broker honest trade deals, would honor their commitments within those trade deals, and would make gajillions selling rare earths to the world.
We do not live in an ideal world, and neither does China. For them, that’s a very bad thing.
Greenland's mineral resources is certainly a reason for the United States to have a strategic interest in Greenland.
I would be very surprised if China's trade negotiators did not look for some accommodation on semiconductor chips, and especially on the technologies and non-mineral resources for chip fabrication. They are going down the same generative AI rabbit hole as the rest of the world and are going to need chips and the ability to fabricate chips.
What a well-reasoned and balanced analysis, Peter. You’ve answered all of my questions, and you’ve covered virtually all of the possible ploys and outcomes. I’m hoping that Trump is looking at the kind of data you’ve found, as it will reinforce his (likely) conclusion that, yeah Xi just doesn’t have the cards for what he’s threatening.
Trump has just had another (apparent) huge victory, getting the hostages released and essentially defeating Hamas. That will increase his standing among world leaders, and embolden him to continue to play either hardball or nice guy, whichever he wants. If the current situation is going to backfire on anyone, I’m betting it will be on Xi, not Trump.
Thanks for your efforts and general genius, Magnificent Man!
Is Trump playing his cards well? We won't know that until the hand is played through and there's a deal (or not).
I do know that China's move makes a whole lot more sense as a maneuver to gain negotiating space than as a pure power flex on trade--but that presumes Xi Jinping knows what he's doing. If China is maneuvering ahead of trade talks then Trump's bombast followed by a more conciliatory Truth Social post is the right play, because it balances the negotiating space while leaving the path for negotiations open.
But it's a poker game, which means we don't know exactly what the other guy is holding or how he's playing his cards.
It will take a few years to build out a domestic critical minerals supply chain, but the more China does stunts like these export restrictions the greater the global imperative to build out those supply chains.
Good article, Peter. Linking it today @https://nothingnewunderthesun2016.com/
Another good one that I will be linking as well is by Nomi Prins - "🔥 Rare Earths War is Heating Up" - https://prinsights.substack.com/p/rare-earths-war-is-heating-up-bigtime
You and/or your readers may be interested in reading it also.
Thanks!
It’s an interesting read, and highlights the investment side of rare earths .
China’s rare earths reserves are a potent economic resource for the Middle Kingdom, but effectively utilizing that resource while contending with a collapsing economy (and a collapsing demographic which is only going to accelerate the economic collapse in the years ahead) is going to be quite the challenge.
In an ideal world, China would broker honest trade deals, would honor their commitments within those trade deals, and would make gajillions selling rare earths to the world.
We do not live in an ideal world, and neither does China. For them, that’s a very bad thing.
Rare earths were part of the reason Trump was interested in Greenland, correct?
Also, do you think the Chinese will press to ease US export restrictions on AI chips?
Greenland's mineral resources is certainly a reason for the United States to have a strategic interest in Greenland.
I would be very surprised if China's trade negotiators did not look for some accommodation on semiconductor chips, and especially on the technologies and non-mineral resources for chip fabrication. They are going down the same generative AI rabbit hole as the rest of the world and are going to need chips and the ability to fabricate chips.
What a well-reasoned and balanced analysis, Peter. You’ve answered all of my questions, and you’ve covered virtually all of the possible ploys and outcomes. I’m hoping that Trump is looking at the kind of data you’ve found, as it will reinforce his (likely) conclusion that, yeah Xi just doesn’t have the cards for what he’s threatening.
Trump has just had another (apparent) huge victory, getting the hostages released and essentially defeating Hamas. That will increase his standing among world leaders, and embolden him to continue to play either hardball or nice guy, whichever he wants. If the current situation is going to backfire on anyone, I’m betting it will be on Xi, not Trump.
Thanks for your efforts and general genius, Magnificent Man!
Neither Trump nor Xi have the cards. That's the rub here--both sides are either bluffing or overplaying their hands to a frightening degree.
An all out trade war over rare earths would be ruinous to both sides. Far better if Xi and Trump negotiate a deal.
Yeah Friday was painful. Praying that Trump knows what he’s doing here.
Trade negotiations are always a poker game.
Is Trump playing his cards well? We won't know that until the hand is played through and there's a deal (or not).
I do know that China's move makes a whole lot more sense as a maneuver to gain negotiating space than as a pure power flex on trade--but that presumes Xi Jinping knows what he's doing. If China is maneuvering ahead of trade talks then Trump's bombast followed by a more conciliatory Truth Social post is the right play, because it balances the negotiating space while leaving the path for negotiations open.
But it's a poker game, which means we don't know exactly what the other guy is holding or how he's playing his cards.
Maybe this will help spur a reshoring of “rare earths” manufacturing. Leaving ourselves vulnerable to Chinese whims is not a good long term strategy.
That's been the committed policy of the Trump Administration all along.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-immediate-action-to-increase-american-mineral-production/
That was before the G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan was devised in June.
https://g7.canada.ca/en/news-and-media/news/g7-critical-minerals-action-plan/
It will take a few years to build out a domestic critical minerals supply chain, but the more China does stunts like these export restrictions the greater the global imperative to build out those supply chains.