Aug 22, 2023·edited Aug 22, 2023Liked by Peter Nayland Kust
The frequent comparison with Japan is if anything too optimistic. At least Japan and the Asian Tigers got rich before they got old. China, thanks to the CCP, is getting old before they get rich.
Aug 22, 2023·edited Aug 22, 2023Liked by Peter Nayland Kust
People thought they would collapse last year, and they didn't. That created a false sense of security I think. But as per the Seneca Effect, "growth is slow but ruin is rapid". And the Hemingway Corollary to that is that such ruin happens "gradually, then suddenly". So it looks like the worst is yet to come for China, but very soon.
Aug 22, 2023·edited Aug 22, 2023Liked by Peter Nayland Kust
Well, it looks like they managed to square the circle like no other country could. They have an emerging labor shortage of young workers due to the legacy of their (former) one-child policy, AND they also have a high youth unemployment rate at the very same time. Only the CCP and it's destructive totalitarian central planning and failed Zero Covid strategy could be able to pull off something like that, that would otherwise be impossible.
The frequent comparison with Japan is if anything too optimistic. At least Japan and the Asian Tigers got rich before they got old. China, thanks to the CCP, is getting old before they get rich.
People thought they would collapse last year, and they didn't. That created a false sense of security I think. But as per the Seneca Effect, "growth is slow but ruin is rapid". And the Hemingway Corollary to that is that such ruin happens "gradually, then suddenly". So it looks like the worst is yet to come for China, but very soon.
With 1.3 billion people China could in theory unleash a tsunami of consumption.
However, doing so would require the CCP to relinquish control over people to a degree well beyond what they've been willing to accept in the past.
Indeed, the CCP is really their own worst enemy.
China is really on the proverbial dark side of the moon, and not in a good way!
Well, it looks like they managed to square the circle like no other country could. They have an emerging labor shortage of young workers due to the legacy of their (former) one-child policy, AND they also have a high youth unemployment rate at the very same time. Only the CCP and it's destructive totalitarian central planning and failed Zero Covid strategy could be able to pull off something like that, that would otherwise be impossible.