Isn’t this at least partially related to the cheap money-created and Covid-worsened banking and interest rate crisis? The global economy was flooded with Covid relief dollars printed out of thin air and we are paying for it now with high prices . Totally predictable.
Isn’t this at least partially related to the cheap money-created and Covid-worsened banking and interest rate crisis? The global economy was flooded with Covid relief dollars printed out of thin air and we are paying for it now with high prices . Totally predictable.
However, the origins of China's malaise predate COVID by decades in some respects. The One Child Policy which has destroyed China's demographics is from 1979. China's real estate bubble was a response to weaknesses in their export-oriented economy during the 2010s: Beijing and local governments responded by boosting revenues via land sales to developers, while easing credit conditions so they could develop said land.
China's export-oriented economy began deteriorating in the 2010s not just because of the global financial crisis, but because in that same time frame China reached the "Lewis Turning Point", that point in a developing economy where all surplus rural labor has been absorbed, and from which point manufacturing wages are forced to rise due to labor scarcity.
Interesting, thanks for the information . Communism and capitalism don’t go together . I foresee continuing difficult times ahead for the average worker as the global economy adjusts to new conditions from inflation, crash in commercial real estate due to the remote workforce , aging population, declining birth rate, culture wars, and artificial intelligence . The investor class will prosper. Government and taxes will grow. Do you have any predictions ?
Not specific ones. Global deflationary events are truly a "one in a century" phenomenon. It's been nearly a full century since the onset of the Great Depression, and the Long Recession of the 1870s was a full half century before that. These things just don't happen as often as regular recessions and inflation episodes do.
There is also the additional issue of demographic collapse in China and Russia particularly. China ran out of children some 20 years ago and is now running out of young workers (and the ones they have are increasingly choosing to "lie flat", according to some accounts). Russia is already at a point where has to choose between putting its young men to work and sending its young men to war.
These demographic crises (and similar crises in countries such as Germany) coupled with economic stress could quite easily precipitate a political crisis in those nations. The CCP could be facing an internal rebellion if can't make good on its post-Tienanmen Square promise to the Chinese people to keep them pacified while under totalitarianism. Putin potentially could have to stave off multiple coup attempts if his war in Ukraine goes seriously south on him
If the regimes in these countries fall, I'm not sure anyone can accurately assess what comes after. If things deteriorate sufficiently in China especially, we are looking at a geopolitical singularity with no real clue what lies on the other side.
Isn’t this at least partially related to the cheap money-created and Covid-worsened banking and interest rate crisis? The global economy was flooded with Covid relief dollars printed out of thin air and we are paying for it now with high prices . Totally predictable.
It's fair to say the two crises are intertwined.
However, the origins of China's malaise predate COVID by decades in some respects. The One Child Policy which has destroyed China's demographics is from 1979. China's real estate bubble was a response to weaknesses in their export-oriented economy during the 2010s: Beijing and local governments responded by boosting revenues via land sales to developers, while easing credit conditions so they could develop said land.
China's export-oriented economy began deteriorating in the 2010s not just because of the global financial crisis, but because in that same time frame China reached the "Lewis Turning Point", that point in a developing economy where all surplus rural labor has been absorbed, and from which point manufacturing wages are forced to rise due to labor scarcity.
https://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/1737/filename/1738.pdf
China's situation certainly has not been helped by the COVID lunacies, nor its own lockdown "Zero COVID" policies.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/xi-jinping-leading-china-over-a-zero
Still, with China moreso than with the rest of the globe, their current economic ills have far deeper roots than COVID and the ensuing Pandemic Panic.
Interesting, thanks for the information . Communism and capitalism don’t go together . I foresee continuing difficult times ahead for the average worker as the global economy adjusts to new conditions from inflation, crash in commercial real estate due to the remote workforce , aging population, declining birth rate, culture wars, and artificial intelligence . The investor class will prosper. Government and taxes will grow. Do you have any predictions ?
Not specific ones. Global deflationary events are truly a "one in a century" phenomenon. It's been nearly a full century since the onset of the Great Depression, and the Long Recession of the 1870s was a full half century before that. These things just don't happen as often as regular recessions and inflation episodes do.
There is also the additional issue of demographic collapse in China and Russia particularly. China ran out of children some 20 years ago and is now running out of young workers (and the ones they have are increasingly choosing to "lie flat", according to some accounts). Russia is already at a point where has to choose between putting its young men to work and sending its young men to war.
These demographic crises (and similar crises in countries such as Germany) coupled with economic stress could quite easily precipitate a political crisis in those nations. The CCP could be facing an internal rebellion if can't make good on its post-Tienanmen Square promise to the Chinese people to keep them pacified while under totalitarianism. Putin potentially could have to stave off multiple coup attempts if his war in Ukraine goes seriously south on him
If the regimes in these countries fall, I'm not sure anyone can accurately assess what comes after. If things deteriorate sufficiently in China especially, we are looking at a geopolitical singularity with no real clue what lies on the other side.