Great article as always. Thanks for your excellent insight.
Some thoughts:
-many unemployed youth… will it be a deciding factor for Xi taking Taiwan?
-Xi economy is toast… will it also push him into taking Taiwan ?
-we have China government on its knees soon. If anti China policies continue… can it help topple Xi/CCP?
-sadly I heard ridiculous rumours on the internet television about how China could be bailed out? Lol. Omg on that one. Crazy
-I also heard China woes may be related to a possible Trump win in 2024? Lol. On the graphs…..As Trump polls rise… China numbers sink. Lol.
China has been anti-Trump and has been behind the scenes undermining him. But they didn’t realize how their meddling world policies would contribute to their poor economic outlook? Will they finally admit world peace, financial stability, etc., helps them too?
They are pushing RFK Jr on Tik Tok like crazy. Obviously they see him as another climate change lunatic democrat that they can manipulate to their benefit. If everyone continues the green agenda to benefit China then upheaval continues. Not sure if China calculated this and if they did… they don’t care? In the long run if they control the worlds energy needs with batteries/ solar … they win! I don’t know what they are going to do.
Apparently there is an old Chinese forecast/folk tale that Xi will be the last leader. Omg I hope it’s true. Lol. Hopefully the good people of China make major changes in their government one day.
Will the dire economic picture move Xi to attempt an invasion of Taiwan? I tend to think not. Two reasons why: 1) China needs to export if they are to have any hope of economic recovery; the country simply lacks the resources to attempt autarky. 2) Taiwan, as the epicenter of the global semiconductor industry, is too important to the global economy for other countries to be blase about a Chinese invasion of the island.
As a consequence, even if China invaded Taiwan, it has almost no chance of holding Taiwan, even under the best economic conditions--which do not exist currently.
Regarding the political future of the CCP:
Whether the economic crisis metastasizes into a political crisis is impossible to predict. The CCP has a firm grip on the reins of power, but that also means there is an expectation they will resolve the economic crisis. If the CCP is seen as having lost control over the economic situation, it is difficult to see how they retain political credibility and thus political power, but whether that happens or when are questions we cannot answer in advance.
Regarding the benefits of world peace and prosperity to China:
We should always be mindful that what benefits a nation and a people is not always seen as a positive by the ruling elites. That's true here in the US, and it is doubly so in China. A global economy which puts pressure on China to liberalize its economy will always be rejected by the CCP, for the simple reason that a more liberal economic order requires a more liberal political order. I do not see the CCP ever supporting a more liberal political order.
Great article as always. Thanks for your excellent insight.
Some thoughts:
-many unemployed youth… will it be a deciding factor for Xi taking Taiwan?
-Xi economy is toast… will it also push him into taking Taiwan ?
-we have China government on its knees soon. If anti China policies continue… can it help topple Xi/CCP?
-sadly I heard ridiculous rumours on the internet television about how China could be bailed out? Lol. Omg on that one. Crazy
-I also heard China woes may be related to a possible Trump win in 2024? Lol. On the graphs…..As Trump polls rise… China numbers sink. Lol.
China has been anti-Trump and has been behind the scenes undermining him. But they didn’t realize how their meddling world policies would contribute to their poor economic outlook? Will they finally admit world peace, financial stability, etc., helps them too?
They are pushing RFK Jr on Tik Tok like crazy. Obviously they see him as another climate change lunatic democrat that they can manipulate to their benefit. If everyone continues the green agenda to benefit China then upheaval continues. Not sure if China calculated this and if they did… they don’t care? In the long run if they control the worlds energy needs with batteries/ solar … they win! I don’t know what they are going to do.
Apparently there is an old Chinese forecast/folk tale that Xi will be the last leader. Omg I hope it’s true. Lol. Hopefully the good people of China make major changes in their government one day.
Regarding Taiwan:
Will the dire economic picture move Xi to attempt an invasion of Taiwan? I tend to think not. Two reasons why: 1) China needs to export if they are to have any hope of economic recovery; the country simply lacks the resources to attempt autarky. 2) Taiwan, as the epicenter of the global semiconductor industry, is too important to the global economy for other countries to be blase about a Chinese invasion of the island.
As a consequence, even if China invaded Taiwan, it has almost no chance of holding Taiwan, even under the best economic conditions--which do not exist currently.
Regarding the political future of the CCP:
Whether the economic crisis metastasizes into a political crisis is impossible to predict. The CCP has a firm grip on the reins of power, but that also means there is an expectation they will resolve the economic crisis. If the CCP is seen as having lost control over the economic situation, it is difficult to see how they retain political credibility and thus political power, but whether that happens or when are questions we cannot answer in advance.
Regarding the benefits of world peace and prosperity to China:
We should always be mindful that what benefits a nation and a people is not always seen as a positive by the ruling elites. That's true here in the US, and it is doubly so in China. A global economy which puts pressure on China to liberalize its economy will always be rejected by the CCP, for the simple reason that a more liberal economic order requires a more liberal political order. I do not see the CCP ever supporting a more liberal political order.