Great work, Peter! And more good news for Trump! He’ll have a few months with good economic data to counter the opposition. If all goes well, the disinflation and deflation will go on just long enough to offset any undesirable effects from tariffs - but not long enough to mire the U.S. economy in the quicksand of persistent deflation.
The net effect may be that Trump’s team will be able to smirk into the opposition’s faces saying, “See? The tariffs worked!”
The one caveat here, Peter: are there plausible ways that the opposition can sabotage these deflationary trends?
I prefer to think of them as inflationary and deflationary impulses. These are forces and moments that move through an economy and the overall expression of inflation or deflation, and even economic expansion and contraction, is the resolution of all of these forces.
These impulses have the potential to be politically beneficial to President Trump, as they will blunt some of the immediate consequences of the punitive tariffs with China.
As the trade war plays out, and as tariff negotiations with the EU proceed, we'll see other impulses that will also have to be incorporated.
It's going to be an interesting exercise looking into the crystal ball to see what's next for the economy. Trump has injected a number of new impulses into the economy and it's going to take a few months to see how they are going to impact the economy.
Great work, Peter! And more good news for Trump! He’ll have a few months with good economic data to counter the opposition. If all goes well, the disinflation and deflation will go on just long enough to offset any undesirable effects from tariffs - but not long enough to mire the U.S. economy in the quicksand of persistent deflation.
The net effect may be that Trump’s team will be able to smirk into the opposition’s faces saying, “See? The tariffs worked!”
The one caveat here, Peter: are there plausible ways that the opposition can sabotage these deflationary trends?
I prefer to think of them as inflationary and deflationary impulses. These are forces and moments that move through an economy and the overall expression of inflation or deflation, and even economic expansion and contraction, is the resolution of all of these forces.
These impulses have the potential to be politically beneficial to President Trump, as they will blunt some of the immediate consequences of the punitive tariffs with China.
As the trade war plays out, and as tariff negotiations with the EU proceed, we'll see other impulses that will also have to be incorporated.
It's going to be an interesting exercise looking into the crystal ball to see what's next for the economy. Trump has injected a number of new impulses into the economy and it's going to take a few months to see how they are going to impact the economy.