Peter, it’s endlessly impressive how you can make one valid, insightful point after another, and show just the pertinent and undeniable data to support your view. You really put the lame corporate media to shame.
So, consumer spending, investment, and exports are all up, but government spending is down? Great! That’s just what we wanted, and God bless Trump and Musk for actually carrying out the will of the voters!
Here’s another way that the corporate anti-Trump media could end up shooting themselves in the foot. You know how the media is busy sounding the alarm about looming shortages? About how there will be no toys in the toy stores come Christmas, no new clothes from China to buy, etc.? Well, suppose that drives the bulk of American consumers to run out and buy stuff NOW, while they still can find what they need. Buy the back-to-school clothes in May, buy the Christmas toys in June, and so on regarding every category of goods. Hee hee! The data will show Trump’s second quarter is booming, in consumer spending and a few other metrics. Consequently, domestic investment will increase, as retail stores replenish their inventories. Domestic toy producers and clothing manufacturers will have huge growth, as there will be a vacuum to fill from lack of Chinese goods. Trump will have plenty of successes to point to, and the corporate media’s alarmism will be the cause!
Of course, there could be a hangover from all that advance-buying, by the fourth or even the third quarter, as few people need to buy more of the stuff they’ve already stocked up on. However, there will also be people who just buy additional stuff, because it’s almost Christmas and Christmas shopping is just ‘what you do’. People who love to shop will think of more things they ‘need’ to buy.
By the third quarter, Trump will look correct on his policies, and corporate media will have moved on to some new strategy of attack. But won’t it be gratifying that it was THEIR alarmist attacks that gave Trump some victories? LOL!
The front running is going to wreak havoc on the second quarter numbers. That much is guaranteed. All the import demand and even some consumption demand registered this quarter was accelerated from the second quarter.
This means that we are likely to see in addition to a drop in imports (which could end up being a net addition to GDP because of how the math works) a drop in consumption.
However, what is important to remember about such effects is that, just as the front-loaded demand is not demand growth in this quarter, the drop-off is not a true reduction in demand next quarter. The demand was always there, it just has been shifted forward by a quarter.
Yes. For the most part, what the government policies achieve is just a disruption of the timing of sales. But, there can be additional consumption (as in the buying of “just one more toy for junior, even though I stocked up for Christmas in June’”. And there can be an undesired allocation of resources, as the normal levels of supply and demand are skewed. Remember during the Covid years, how there was a huge initial demand for hand sanitizers? Dozens of companies rushed in to fill the demand, only to end up with inventory they literally could not give away, as consumers lost trust in the efficacy of sanitizers.
The moral of the story is that government should stop trying to manipulate supply and demand. Command economies cannot work!
Peter, it’s endlessly impressive how you can make one valid, insightful point after another, and show just the pertinent and undeniable data to support your view. You really put the lame corporate media to shame.
So, consumer spending, investment, and exports are all up, but government spending is down? Great! That’s just what we wanted, and God bless Trump and Musk for actually carrying out the will of the voters!
Here’s another way that the corporate anti-Trump media could end up shooting themselves in the foot. You know how the media is busy sounding the alarm about looming shortages? About how there will be no toys in the toy stores come Christmas, no new clothes from China to buy, etc.? Well, suppose that drives the bulk of American consumers to run out and buy stuff NOW, while they still can find what they need. Buy the back-to-school clothes in May, buy the Christmas toys in June, and so on regarding every category of goods. Hee hee! The data will show Trump’s second quarter is booming, in consumer spending and a few other metrics. Consequently, domestic investment will increase, as retail stores replenish their inventories. Domestic toy producers and clothing manufacturers will have huge growth, as there will be a vacuum to fill from lack of Chinese goods. Trump will have plenty of successes to point to, and the corporate media’s alarmism will be the cause!
Of course, there could be a hangover from all that advance-buying, by the fourth or even the third quarter, as few people need to buy more of the stuff they’ve already stocked up on. However, there will also be people who just buy additional stuff, because it’s almost Christmas and Christmas shopping is just ‘what you do’. People who love to shop will think of more things they ‘need’ to buy.
By the third quarter, Trump will look correct on his policies, and corporate media will have moved on to some new strategy of attack. But won’t it be gratifying that it was THEIR alarmist attacks that gave Trump some victories? LOL!
The front running is going to wreak havoc on the second quarter numbers. That much is guaranteed. All the import demand and even some consumption demand registered this quarter was accelerated from the second quarter.
This means that we are likely to see in addition to a drop in imports (which could end up being a net addition to GDP because of how the math works) a drop in consumption.
However, what is important to remember about such effects is that, just as the front-loaded demand is not demand growth in this quarter, the drop-off is not a true reduction in demand next quarter. The demand was always there, it just has been shifted forward by a quarter.
Yes. For the most part, what the government policies achieve is just a disruption of the timing of sales. But, there can be additional consumption (as in the buying of “just one more toy for junior, even though I stocked up for Christmas in June’”. And there can be an undesired allocation of resources, as the normal levels of supply and demand are skewed. Remember during the Covid years, how there was a huge initial demand for hand sanitizers? Dozens of companies rushed in to fill the demand, only to end up with inventory they literally could not give away, as consumers lost trust in the efficacy of sanitizers.
The moral of the story is that government should stop trying to manipulate supply and demand. Command economies cannot work!
Can you send a copy of this to Jessica Tarlov? Please and thank you.
Sure. I’ll need to track down contact details, but I’m sure she’s on X or somewhere. It’ll be a hoot! :D
You are the BEST!
Great analysis. Something msm sorely lacks/omits/hides/purposely misleads (take your pick).
Thanks!
Corporate media does propaganda--and their propaganda is my best advertising for All Facts Matter!