Nov 23, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

And wouldn't that just be convenient for a "afghanistan-kuwait-vietnam-esque" unending war in Europe.....for those that profit from the war machine and those that have invested and speculated on a "new normal" future.πŸ€”πŸ€”πŸ˜πŸ˜‘

Expand full comment

The war in Ukraine is far too conventional to last indefinitely. The genius of the military industrial complex and their neocon/neolib partners in government has been in perpetuating low intensity asymmetric wars in the Middle East (the tribal cultures of which are particularly suited for that type of insurgent combat). That is not the situation in Ukraine.

The US is actually doing a replay of its WW1 strategy, selling arms to Europe, fostering a suicidal war of attrition. Has Germany not opted for unrestricted submarine warfare against Britain, the US was quite happy to let the European powers destroy each other--and so long as Putin doesn't trigger Article V, I anticipate the US will be quite content to follow the same strategy now.

If the war in Ukraine drags on very far into 2023, the prognosis for every economy in Europe quickly turns apocalyptic. If Europe's industries collapse and disappear, they take the bulk of European demand for Russian energy with them. Russia loses its best energy customer regardless of the outcome in Ukraine--which is likely to be lethal to the Russian economy (China can't bail Russia out in this regard because the infrastructure is not there to ship that much oil and gas to China even if China's demand was high enough, which it isn't).

Which means Europe ceases to be anything but a set of client states to the United States. If the Russian Federation ruptures from the economic turmoil, that could even include a post-Putin remnant of Muscovite Russia.

This also strips China of many of its export markets at a time when China needs them most to resuscitate its own contracting economy.

The US/NATO strategy in Ukraine is cynical and brutal, but it is arguably succeeding.

With a rising isolationist mentality in the US, a successful strategy in Ukraine will make for a very interesting middle of this 21st century of the Common Era.

Expand full comment