This is the leaked draft of the “minerals deal” between the United States and Ukraine, reprinted in full as reported in The Kyiv Independent on February 26, 2025.
Thanks for posting this, Peter. It looks pretty comprehensive to me, and includes plenty of cards for Trump to play in his negotiations with the rest of Europe. Which countries will get the refining plants, pipelines, distribution networks, and so on? Trump knows how to set up a deal!
The reactions to this agreement from NATO countries are going to be interesting. Will they see the inherent possibilities in this agreement, or will they play politics and attack it as “unfair” in some aspects? Will they publicly attack it, but privately line up to get their share of the goodies (my bet is on this scenario)?
It sets the stage for future negotiations, and that puts the Ukraine-US negotiations over Ukraine’s future farther along than the Russia-US negotiations.
To that extent, it puts pressure on Putin to conclude “something”, and if Putin doesn't, it makes backing Ukraine an easier sell to the American electorate.
There's still a lot of negotiating to be done, and a lot of ways for the negotiations to implode.
Realizing this is just an agreement to reach an agreement, there’s lots of slippery language in it. The final agreement better have rock solid commitments.
Thanks for posting this, Peter. It looks pretty comprehensive to me, and includes plenty of cards for Trump to play in his negotiations with the rest of Europe. Which countries will get the refining plants, pipelines, distribution networks, and so on? Trump knows how to set up a deal!
The reactions to this agreement from NATO countries are going to be interesting. Will they see the inherent possibilities in this agreement, or will they play politics and attack it as “unfair” in some aspects? Will they publicly attack it, but privately line up to get their share of the goodies (my bet is on this scenario)?
It's broad more than comprehensive.
It sets the stage for future negotiations, and that puts the Ukraine-US negotiations over Ukraine’s future farther along than the Russia-US negotiations.
To that extent, it puts pressure on Putin to conclude “something”, and if Putin doesn't, it makes backing Ukraine an easier sell to the American electorate.
There's still a lot of negotiating to be done, and a lot of ways for the negotiations to implode.
It's a start.
Realizing this is just an agreement to reach an agreement, there’s lots of slippery language in it. The final agreement better have rock solid commitments.
No doubt.
It would be premature to describe this as the end of the negotations over Ukraine, or even the beginning of the end of those negotiations.
It might be fair to say, however, that it is the end of the beginning.