GDPNow Shows Further Decline For Third Quarter

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow nowcast projects 1.3% growth in Real GDP for the third quarter, dropping one-tenth of a percentage point from Wednesday’s figure.

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on September 9, down from 1.4 percent on September 7. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcast of third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -5.8 percent to -6.1 percent.

The reason for the slight decline was shrinking US sales, further cementing the case that the US is in a recession.

July 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were $698.0 billion, down 1.4 percent (±0.4 percent) from the revised June level, but were up 15.3 percent (±0.9 percent) from the revised July 2021 level. The May 2022 to June 2022 percent change was revised from the preliminary estimate of up 1.8 percent (±0.4 percent) to up 1.6 percent (±0.4 percent).

If current trends continue third quarter will see GDP contract again.

The recession is getting steadily worse.