I don’t pretend to understand probably most of what you said, even though it was plain English. I’ll have to read it probably two or three more times to see how much of it will stick. I have thought for a long time that China is on a downward trend because of your previous reporting and others. I think what scares me about it is it makes China dangerous from a military standpoint. They will have to do something to make the world think they are strong. I haven’t seen too many detailed analysis’ of the strength of China’s military, but if they try to disturb Taiwan, that will be a big deal. Once again you’ve gotten my attention and I’m going to become a paid member. I thank you, I bless you for your hard work and I wish you good health and the greatest success.
Thanks for your kind words and thanks for becoming a paid subscriber!
Regarding China's military strength, contrary to what a lot of "experts" say, China's military capabilities are far less certain than it appears at first glance. The most glaring deficit China has is that it has not fought in any sort of war since 1979. Top to bottom their military has NO combat experience.
That's an important element, because combat is what teaches a military what parts of their doctrine work and what parts do not. The efficacy of China's training regimen for its troops has never been put to a real-world test.
The US, on the other hand, has considerable real-world combat experience.
China's other major vulnerability is they import 80% of their fossil fuels, and most of that flows through the Malacca Strait. That passage is well outside the defensive radius their hypersonic missiles can project power from China, and the US, Australia, and India all have sufficient naval assets to completely blockade that passage and cut off China's flow of oil.
If China starts a shooting war over Taiwan, closure of the Malacca Strait means China runs out of oil in 6-9 months, and China's industrial capacity shuts down by month 12. By month 18 China would run out of food. Those are generous estimates--the time frame could be far shorter.
Even their new carrier the Fujian is conventionally powered, which greatly limits its ability to remain deployed for extended periods of time. Even if the carrier's technology set does work as billed (a very large "if"), China has very little capacity to use the carrier in a true blue-water fashion.
Given the less than stellar performance of Russia's hypersonic missiles in Ukraine, the true lethality of China's hypersonic missile arsenal is very much a question mark at this point. There are claimed capabilities, but there are no real-world confirmations.
Is China a "paper tiger"? While we should not assume that they are, we should not reflexively believe that they are not.
Very impressive work, Peter. You’ve got great data to support every brilliant point you’ve made. Frankly, I’m surprised at Goldman Sachs’ prediction - have they not been paying attention to China’s underlying financial problems? Their prediction is so clueless that I find myself cynically suspecting some underhanded financial ploy on their part, to game the system in Goldman Sachs’ favor.
And as you point out, China usually gives a more positive picture of their economic than is warranted. China’s leaders have been consistently lying about everything for decades. As an example from my memories, after Nixon went to China - opening up the Iron Curtain there for the first time in decades - China started releasing propaganda about what a paradise Mao’s communist system was. They said that prostitution had been completely eradicated - there was not a single prostitute in all of China. Even as a naive 15-year-old, I thought, wait, I’m supposed to believe that out of 800 million people there is NO prostitution going on? Um, I don’t think so. Eventually, the West found out about the 100,000 or so Chinese peasants who starved to death in that “paradise”. It’s been just one big lie after another, and no one in power within China dares to speak the truth about anything.
Thank you for your excellent work, Peter. I always feel that I’m getting an accurate assessment from you!
Given that Goldman Sachs was hawking subprime mortgage-backed securities while betting against them during the run-up to the Great Financial Crisis, one could be forgiven for thinking that the Vampire Squid has an agenda behind its "analysis".
However, the data is still the data, and apparently the data China is willing to acknowledge has Xi Jinping unnerved.
That alone tells us much about the real state of China's economy.
Thorough and enlightening as always!
I don’t pretend to understand probably most of what you said, even though it was plain English. I’ll have to read it probably two or three more times to see how much of it will stick. I have thought for a long time that China is on a downward trend because of your previous reporting and others. I think what scares me about it is it makes China dangerous from a military standpoint. They will have to do something to make the world think they are strong. I haven’t seen too many detailed analysis’ of the strength of China’s military, but if they try to disturb Taiwan, that will be a big deal. Once again you’ve gotten my attention and I’m going to become a paid member. I thank you, I bless you for your hard work and I wish you good health and the greatest success.
Thanks for your kind words and thanks for becoming a paid subscriber!
Regarding China's military strength, contrary to what a lot of "experts" say, China's military capabilities are far less certain than it appears at first glance. The most glaring deficit China has is that it has not fought in any sort of war since 1979. Top to bottom their military has NO combat experience.
That's an important element, because combat is what teaches a military what parts of their doctrine work and what parts do not. The efficacy of China's training regimen for its troops has never been put to a real-world test.
The US, on the other hand, has considerable real-world combat experience.
China's other major vulnerability is they import 80% of their fossil fuels, and most of that flows through the Malacca Strait. That passage is well outside the defensive radius their hypersonic missiles can project power from China, and the US, Australia, and India all have sufficient naval assets to completely blockade that passage and cut off China's flow of oil.
If China starts a shooting war over Taiwan, closure of the Malacca Strait means China runs out of oil in 6-9 months, and China's industrial capacity shuts down by month 12. By month 18 China would run out of food. Those are generous estimates--the time frame could be far shorter.
Even their new carrier the Fujian is conventionally powered, which greatly limits its ability to remain deployed for extended periods of time. Even if the carrier's technology set does work as billed (a very large "if"), China has very little capacity to use the carrier in a true blue-water fashion.
Given the less than stellar performance of Russia's hypersonic missiles in Ukraine, the true lethality of China's hypersonic missile arsenal is very much a question mark at this point. There are claimed capabilities, but there are no real-world confirmations.
Is China a "paper tiger"? While we should not assume that they are, we should not reflexively believe that they are not.
Hopefully, we won't have to find out.
Very impressive work, Peter. You’ve got great data to support every brilliant point you’ve made. Frankly, I’m surprised at Goldman Sachs’ prediction - have they not been paying attention to China’s underlying financial problems? Their prediction is so clueless that I find myself cynically suspecting some underhanded financial ploy on their part, to game the system in Goldman Sachs’ favor.
And as you point out, China usually gives a more positive picture of their economic than is warranted. China’s leaders have been consistently lying about everything for decades. As an example from my memories, after Nixon went to China - opening up the Iron Curtain there for the first time in decades - China started releasing propaganda about what a paradise Mao’s communist system was. They said that prostitution had been completely eradicated - there was not a single prostitute in all of China. Even as a naive 15-year-old, I thought, wait, I’m supposed to believe that out of 800 million people there is NO prostitution going on? Um, I don’t think so. Eventually, the West found out about the 100,000 or so Chinese peasants who starved to death in that “paradise”. It’s been just one big lie after another, and no one in power within China dares to speak the truth about anything.
Thank you for your excellent work, Peter. I always feel that I’m getting an accurate assessment from you!
Given that Goldman Sachs was hawking subprime mortgage-backed securities while betting against them during the run-up to the Great Financial Crisis, one could be forgiven for thinking that the Vampire Squid has an agenda behind its "analysis".
However, the data is still the data, and apparently the data China is willing to acknowledge has Xi Jinping unnerved.
That alone tells us much about the real state of China's economy.