I’m glad to see you addressing this possibility of a larger Sunni-Shi’a war because that’s what I’ve been concerned about for weeks. I’d even call it a ‘probability’ more than a possibility. When armed conflict arose at the Pakistan/Iran border last week I became alarmed. I realize that the key instigators of the conflict are Balochistan groups seeking autonomy. But I’ve also read that Pakistan’s economy is really horrible right now. If you have millions of unemployed young Pakistani men, without economic prospects and susceptible to religious indoctrination, you have millions of fighting-age men jumping at the offer of three meals a day in the army, plus religious meaning added to their lives, plus the chance to be revered as martyrs if they die. THAT is the raw fuel for a major jihad that could inflame rapidly. It has in the past. Subsequently, you’d have the major players of the world - Russia, China, NATO, the US - all selling arms and becoming dragged into taking sides. Yikes.
True! You have written a couple of well-reasoned and reassuring columns in the recent past that explained why it’s not really in anyone’s interest to expand the war, and they don’t have the ready capability in any case. But, once ancient religious hatreds flame up, reason often just flies out the window and hatred prevails, even when it’s practically suicidal to inflame that hatred. Ultimately, the rest of the world changes it’s focus from ‘how can we stop this situation from getting worse?’ to ‘well, the war has expanded, now how can we profit from it?’
It isn’t just the arms dealers who can profit, it’s political maneuvering, empire building, supply-chain machinations, and so on. For example, Nikki Haley has indicated a willingness to go to war with Iran, while Trump has promised no new foreign wars. Even if there is no practical way for either of them to turn their stances into the party’s endorsement, their rhetoric and priorities might change on the campaign which could affect how Americans see the war. And how could Putin turn a Sunni/Shi’a war to his advantage? How would Xi play the situation? It’s too convoluted for speculation at this point. But I will love to read your future columns analyzing the moves as they unfold!
Is Iran playing a role in a larger Pakistan - India conflict?
I don't think so. Not yet, anyway.
Subject to change with the next attack.
Do you watch Scott Ritter / Colonel Douglas MacGregor / Max Blumenthal / Glenn Greenwald / Judging Freedom ..
Sometimes. Most of their stuff is propaganda in the other direction, so I take it with a grain of salt.
I’m glad to see you addressing this possibility of a larger Sunni-Shi’a war because that’s what I’ve been concerned about for weeks. I’d even call it a ‘probability’ more than a possibility. When armed conflict arose at the Pakistan/Iran border last week I became alarmed. I realize that the key instigators of the conflict are Balochistan groups seeking autonomy. But I’ve also read that Pakistan’s economy is really horrible right now. If you have millions of unemployed young Pakistani men, without economic prospects and susceptible to religious indoctrination, you have millions of fighting-age men jumping at the offer of three meals a day in the army, plus religious meaning added to their lives, plus the chance to be revered as martyrs if they die. THAT is the raw fuel for a major jihad that could inflame rapidly. It has in the past. Subsequently, you’d have the major players of the world - Russia, China, NATO, the US - all selling arms and becoming dragged into taking sides. Yikes.
The devil in the details is that none of these countries have the economic resilience to sustain a protracted war anywhere.
Which makes any effort to game the scenarios almost impossible.
True! You have written a couple of well-reasoned and reassuring columns in the recent past that explained why it’s not really in anyone’s interest to expand the war, and they don’t have the ready capability in any case. But, once ancient religious hatreds flame up, reason often just flies out the window and hatred prevails, even when it’s practically suicidal to inflame that hatred. Ultimately, the rest of the world changes it’s focus from ‘how can we stop this situation from getting worse?’ to ‘well, the war has expanded, now how can we profit from it?’
It isn’t just the arms dealers who can profit, it’s political maneuvering, empire building, supply-chain machinations, and so on. For example, Nikki Haley has indicated a willingness to go to war with Iran, while Trump has promised no new foreign wars. Even if there is no practical way for either of them to turn their stances into the party’s endorsement, their rhetoric and priorities might change on the campaign which could affect how Americans see the war. And how could Putin turn a Sunni/Shi’a war to his advantage? How would Xi play the situation? It’s too convoluted for speculation at this point. But I will love to read your future columns analyzing the moves as they unfold!