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Dec 12, 2022Liked by Peter Nayland Kust

I am quite skeptical about the imminent overthrow of the Iranian, Russian, and Chinese regimes. As long as the security forces are willing to commit murder on a large scale, I do not see a successful revolution in the near term. I would love to see all three regimes go, but I am keeping my expectations low.

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Iran's regime is not in "imminent" danger, but it is dangerously unstable, and the Mahsa Amini protests are exacerbating the instability.

Putin will not be toppled by a revolution, but by a coup d'etat -- ironically it is the ultranationalists who are most likely to make a move against him. As to when the coup happens, the timing is wholly dependent on how the war in Ukraine proceeds. Defeat is never an autocrat's friend.

China is currently the most stable of the three, although the Zero COVID protests show there are some major cracks in the facade.

But don't put too much reliance on a regime's willingness to kill. Many bloodthirsty dictators have been toppled in spite of their murderous tendencies.

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