The Russian forces around the Ukrainian city of Kherson are preparing for a major Ukrainian offensive to retake the city…and Russian confidence in their ability to defend their position does not appear high.
"The situation in the area of the 'Special Military Operation' can be described as tense," Sergei Surovikin, the Russian air force general now commanding Russia's invasion forces, told the state-owned Rossiya 24 news channel.
On Kherson, Surovikin said: "The situation in this area is difficult. The enemy is deliberately striking infrastructure and residential buildings."
Russian forces in the Kherson region have been driven back by 20-30 km (13-20 miles) in the last few weeks and are at risk of being pinned against the western bank of the 2,200-km-long Dnipro river that bisects Ukraine.
While on paper this is still Russia’s war to lose, there is no denying the reality that forward momentum is all on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainians have been more tactically innovative, have used misdirection and deception as effective force multipliers, and are retaking territory along the entire front line.
This war may still be Russia’s to lose, but right now they are losing it.
Russia attacking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure is likely to harden Ukrainian resistance. After the Holodomor and Chernobyl, the Ukrainians have precious little reason to feel good about the Russians, and Putin's terror tactics are giving the current generation new reasons to hate Russia.
If Russia can sustain a war of attrition past spring of next year, Ukraine is likely to lose. If Ukraine retakes Kherson before winter this ceases to be a war of attrition and becomes a war of maneuver -- something Russia has never done well.
This only becomes WW3 if Russia loses. Every likely scenario where Putin attacks NATO or launches nukes begins with Russia being beaten on the battlefield.
I don’t see it so much as hardening resistance as much as I see it demoralizing the populace. Russia has been hitting infrastructure for what, 2 weeks? What happens a month from now when the cold hits and there is no power or water anywhere?
Regarding the escalation, NATO is flying missions near the Belarusian boarder. Israel is flapping their gums about sending aid. Russia is not smiling about this. NATOstan lead by the US seems to be hell bent on escalation. Why else did the US kill the peace talks?
The media and deep state are basically the same thing - they are run by the same people. The media has pushed us into war before, they want it again. So does the deep state. I think we will need a miracle to keep us out of direct war with Russia.
The US strategy is both cynical and simple: Grind up Russia's military in a war of attrition in Ukraine. Whether Ukraine wins or loses, the US is on track to achieve the strategic objective of neutering the Russian army as an offensive force against Europe.
As for the infrastructure attacks, one must remember the history of Ukraine and Russia--it's not a friendly history at all. Ukraine tried to exit the Russian Empire in 1918, only for the Bolsheviks to reconquer them during the Russian Civil War in 1922. Stalin inflicted the Holodomor on the Ukrainian people in the 1930s--a brutal and barbaric famine which the West largely tried to overlook even as it was happening (The New York Times won a Pulitzer for denying the famine was occurring). The 1980s saw the devastation of Chernobyl inflicted on Ukraine by Russian corruption.
On top of that, Putin's own ethnonationlist essay from July of 2021 made his views on Ukraine quite clear: Ukraine only has a right to exist as a satellite of Muscovite Russia, and the Ukrainian people only have a right to exist as a subject population under the domination of Muscovite Russians.
If the Ukrainians are viewing the infrastructure attacks through that historical lens, then the attacks make Ukrainian surrender or even acquiescence to Russian occupation of the Donbass an impossibility. Regardless of the other geopolitical forces in play, for the Ukrainians, the calculus is simple: if they stop fighting, they cease to exist. Terror tactics such as what Putin has attempted do not work against such a mindset, because he's already eliminated the potential middle ground that would make surrender possible.
The general in charge of the Russian troops is the one who described the situation as "difficult".
That's not a vote of confidence by the commander.
The Ukrainian advances on Kherson are simple reality. Don't matter which side you're on, if you're constantly retreating you're not winning the battle.
Yes, General Armageddon doesn't sound happy. And as a supporter of Putin on this one, I'm not happy either seeing the Russians give ground, whether it's because they are genuinely being beaten or as part of some big plan. Let's wait and see how this plays out, as well as the big reinforcements coming in for the Russians.
I agree. And maybe the Ukies will take Kherson. As you point out, these are facts on the ground. However, there are many other facts here. Firstly, Russia has mobilised a large amount of troops. Secondly, many nations are telling their embassy staff to get out of Ukraine. Thirdly, Russia has been knocking out huge chunks of Ukrainian infrastructure just in time for winter. We'll see very soon how all these facts come together.
Mobilization and deployment are two different things.
Putin has targeted civilian infrastructure but ignored roads and bridges -- the key infrastructures to Ukrainian (not "Ukie", we don't do ethnic slurs on this Substack) logistics.
Militarily, his infrastructure attacks have been a waste of missiles and drones. Resources he apparently doesn't have in abundance, based on his latest "economic mobilization" order.
I don't quite follow your reasoning here, Peter, if reasoning there is. Do militaries have their own private infrastructure? They too run on electricity and other power sources that the Russkies (there - I've cancelled out my horrible racial slur against the Ukrainian people!) have knocked out. As for mobilization and deployment, I agree that they are two different things. I also agree with you that the recently mobilised troops probably won't be in position to repel any Kherson attack by the Ukies. However, they won't be too long delayed, and then we shall see. I fully admit my biases here, and like most humans, I want to read news that fits in with my hopes and wishes. However, there are equally compelling facts that counter your point of view, and I think you should admit that. I don't pretend to know which will triumph, but I do hope that the Russians' efforts in Eastern Ukraine bring the freedoms to the ethnic Russian population there that were promised by Kiev in the Minsk Declarations. We shall see!
Ukraine is without power or water in about 1/3 of the country. Belarus is helping Russia as is Iran.
Ukraine has no chance long term IMO. This seems to be escalating into WWIII pretty quickly in which case Ukraine will lose...bigly.
Russia attacking Ukrainian civilian infrastructure is likely to harden Ukrainian resistance. After the Holodomor and Chernobyl, the Ukrainians have precious little reason to feel good about the Russians, and Putin's terror tactics are giving the current generation new reasons to hate Russia.
If Russia can sustain a war of attrition past spring of next year, Ukraine is likely to lose. If Ukraine retakes Kherson before winter this ceases to be a war of attrition and becomes a war of maneuver -- something Russia has never done well.
This only becomes WW3 if Russia loses. Every likely scenario where Putin attacks NATO or launches nukes begins with Russia being beaten on the battlefield.
I don’t see it so much as hardening resistance as much as I see it demoralizing the populace. Russia has been hitting infrastructure for what, 2 weeks? What happens a month from now when the cold hits and there is no power or water anywhere?
Regarding the escalation, NATO is flying missions near the Belarusian boarder. Israel is flapping their gums about sending aid. Russia is not smiling about this. NATOstan lead by the US seems to be hell bent on escalation. Why else did the US kill the peace talks?
The media and deep state are basically the same thing - they are run by the same people. The media has pushed us into war before, they want it again. So does the deep state. I think we will need a miracle to keep us out of direct war with Russia.
The US strategy is both cynical and simple: Grind up Russia's military in a war of attrition in Ukraine. Whether Ukraine wins or loses, the US is on track to achieve the strategic objective of neutering the Russian army as an offensive force against Europe.
As for the infrastructure attacks, one must remember the history of Ukraine and Russia--it's not a friendly history at all. Ukraine tried to exit the Russian Empire in 1918, only for the Bolsheviks to reconquer them during the Russian Civil War in 1922. Stalin inflicted the Holodomor on the Ukrainian people in the 1930s--a brutal and barbaric famine which the West largely tried to overlook even as it was happening (The New York Times won a Pulitzer for denying the famine was occurring). The 1980s saw the devastation of Chernobyl inflicted on Ukraine by Russian corruption.
On top of that, Putin's own ethnonationlist essay from July of 2021 made his views on Ukraine quite clear: Ukraine only has a right to exist as a satellite of Muscovite Russia, and the Ukrainian people only have a right to exist as a subject population under the domination of Muscovite Russians.
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181
If the Ukrainians are viewing the infrastructure attacks through that historical lens, then the attacks make Ukrainian surrender or even acquiescence to Russian occupation of the Donbass an impossibility. Regardless of the other geopolitical forces in play, for the Ukrainians, the calculus is simple: if they stop fighting, they cease to exist. Terror tactics such as what Putin has attempted do not work against such a mindset, because he's already eliminated the potential middle ground that would make surrender possible.
Depends who you listen to. The pro-Russian sites are all talking about the upcoming Russian offensive.
The general in charge of the Russian troops is the one who described the situation as "difficult".
That's not a vote of confidence by the commander.
The Ukrainian advances on Kherson are simple reality. Don't matter which side you're on, if you're constantly retreating you're not winning the battle.
Yes, General Armageddon doesn't sound happy. And as a supporter of Putin on this one, I'm not happy either seeing the Russians give ground, whether it's because they are genuinely being beaten or as part of some big plan. Let's wait and see how this plays out, as well as the big reinforcements coming in for the Russians.
Russia's 220,000 conscripts mobilized this far can't be deployed on the Kherson front in time for Ukraine's next offensive.
Even Putin cannot escape the realities of logistics.
I agree. And maybe the Ukies will take Kherson. As you point out, these are facts on the ground. However, there are many other facts here. Firstly, Russia has mobilised a large amount of troops. Secondly, many nations are telling their embassy staff to get out of Ukraine. Thirdly, Russia has been knocking out huge chunks of Ukrainian infrastructure just in time for winter. We'll see very soon how all these facts come together.
Mobilization and deployment are two different things.
Putin has targeted civilian infrastructure but ignored roads and bridges -- the key infrastructures to Ukrainian (not "Ukie", we don't do ethnic slurs on this Substack) logistics.
Militarily, his infrastructure attacks have been a waste of missiles and drones. Resources he apparently doesn't have in abundance, based on his latest "economic mobilization" order.
I don't quite follow your reasoning here, Peter, if reasoning there is. Do militaries have their own private infrastructure? They too run on electricity and other power sources that the Russkies (there - I've cancelled out my horrible racial slur against the Ukrainian people!) have knocked out. As for mobilization and deployment, I agree that they are two different things. I also agree with you that the recently mobilised troops probably won't be in position to repel any Kherson attack by the Ukies. However, they won't be too long delayed, and then we shall see. I fully admit my biases here, and like most humans, I want to read news that fits in with my hopes and wishes. However, there are equally compelling facts that counter your point of view, and I think you should admit that. I don't pretend to know which will triumph, but I do hope that the Russians' efforts in Eastern Ukraine bring the freedoms to the ethnic Russian population there that were promised by Kiev in the Minsk Declarations. We shall see!