That Jay Powell did what Wall Street expected of him is not newsworthy. What warrants further consideration is that Powell did nothing on the federal funds rate because he does not know what he should do.
Remarkably, Jay Powell all but admitted he did not have a good read on the economy and Wall Street was okay with that!
Jay Powell’s indecisiveness is as good a reason as any to unpack some of the economic data which mystifies him. By applying a soupcon of analysis, perhaps we can see what Powell might be overlooking, and get the read on the US economy that appears to elude him.
Contents
Links and Sources
“Fed Leaves Interest Rates Unchanged, Sees Economy as ‘Solid’”: https://archive.ph/Rn0XM
“No One Expected The Fed To Cut Rates, And They Didn’t”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/i/162836265/no-one-expected-the-fed-to-cut-rates-and-they-didnt
FOMC Statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250507a.htm
Transcript of Jerome Powell’s Press Conference: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20250507.pdf
“Recession Postponed”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/i/162836265/recession-postponed
Market Yield on US Treasury Securities: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITJn
Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ: https://tinyurl.com/mr23w863
Dollar Index, Trading Economics: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/currency
US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield
United States ISM Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/business-confidence
United States Manufacturing PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi
United States Services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/services-pmi
United States ISM Services PMI: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi
Current General Business Activity; Diffusion Index for Texas: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITxP
Current General Business Conditions; Diffusion Index for New York: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITyh
Current General Activity; Diffusion Index for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITyC
Manufacturers' New Orders: Total Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITz8
Manufacturers' New Orders: Durable Goods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITwy
Manufacturers' New Orders: Consumer Goods: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ITzo
All Employees, Manufacturing: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1HLiX
Unemployment Level: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIpw
Employment Level - Part-Time for Economic Reasons: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IIoy
“Job Numbers Are Up. Paychecks Aren’t”: https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/p/april-jobs
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