“Data from the survey along with studies by private companies have become more useful of late, as federal agencies once renown for their “gold standard” in economic data have become unreliable.”
Since 2021, the US has come off the idiotic Covid shut down, and has experienced annual inflation rates as high as 8%. Additionally, it has experienced artificially high interest rates as a result of poor stewardship and fraudulent economic data (like the job reports you constantly expose). In short, the US economy has been somewhat of a shit show. IMO the real question now is: Are Trump economic policies the proper way to right this ship, and when will we have enough economic history and data to determine the answer to this question?
To the small group here (HenriO, GBill, Tom and obv Dr PNK) - is our economy downstream from our society? If yes then our economy will benefit from -
Borders closed, illegals removed en masse and immigration laws finally enforced. (L Riley and all related benefits that will flow from this)
DEI removed from govt educational and Corp institutions at the foundational and legal level (my own personal experiences)
The ceasing of covert but direct censoring of dissent by govt at all levels such as grant funding and social media manipulation (A Berenson Covid warriors)
Exposure and defunding of the massive complex and govt overthrow apparatus by usaid cia DoD State and others (M Benz)
And
Weaponization of our govt for lawfare to squash dissent (don't fall for hype of msm, what Biden et al did to T and his supporters is clearly objectively not akin to now)
During the covid era I woke early and often due to a handful of real or perceived risks and I have since gone back to those notes where I wrote those out (mostly the above 5) -- T has addressed these in the main and by wide margin more than any other)- for you?
And I didnt even mention the economy - is it downstream from society?
I think the economy and society are so intertwined that each one generates causes that produce effects in the other. For example, here’s a good article on the negative effects on society that result from inflation:
That is a very good question--and like all good questions, the answer is quite a bit more than a simple "yes" or "no".
There certainly are arguments to be made that society is downstream from the economy--i.e., the hollowing out of America's industrial and manufacturing base (economic issue) diminished demand for skilled workers and STEM graduates (societal issue) thus contributing to the decline of American education (cultural issue).
At the same time, societal transformations such as deportation of illegal aliens (societal/political/policy issue) that facilitate putting more native workers into the labor force very likely is a contributor towards ending this country's ongoing jobs recession (economic issue).
Will increasing demand for skilled workers and STEM graduates put pressure on educational institutions to abandon DEI in favor of meritocratic approaches to education? Or will educational institutions abandoning DEI in favor of said meritocratic approaches to education revive interest in hiring skilled workers and STEM graduates?
I suspect one could competently argue both sides of that proposition.
My short take is that a nation's economy is one of its societal dimensions, as are its culture and its demographics. Policies which shift demographics will have an impact on culture and economy, just as policies which shift culture will impact demographics and economy, and policies which shift economy will have an impact on culture and demographics. I'm not sure "downstream" is a useful framing, as that implies a linear relationship which I do not believe can be supported by the totality of evidence.
That said, will removing illegal aliens have salutary effects particularly for native workers? I think over time that will be the case, and certainly recent data on native-born vs foreign-born labor trends suggests that may be happening.
However, when we look at the specifically economic portions of Agenda 47--most notably the ambition to make America a "manufacturing superpower", we necessarily have to look at specific economic data to see whether that objective is being met, or is even on a trajectory to be met. Given that the US economy is still hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs and we have seen little uptick in industrial capacity utilization, I am not certain the data lends confidence to the supposition that Trump's manufacturing objectives are on track to be fulfilled.
That's a problem, and not one which is directly addressed by immigration policy or shifts regarding DEI. It may very well be the case that those policies will have network effects which do improve the state of manufacturing in this country, but those effects have not emerged in the data as of the September jobs report.
My particular criticism of President Trump in this regard is not that his policies are the wrong policies. I do not believe ten months of data allows us to reach that conclusion. Rather, my criticism is that President Trump's "Golden Age" rhetoric makes no acknowledgement of the very real weaknesses and toxicities which still lurk within US labor markets. We have not seen broad recovery in real earnings, we are not seeing a reversal of the downward trend in manufacturing jobs, we are not seeing an end to the jobs recession as a whole.
If these things are going to come with time, President Trump and his Administration need to make that case and give realistic assessments on how Trump policies are furthering those objectives in the long-term, and how far those policies have progressed.
We have not heard, for example, any rhetoric about the inevitability of a recession, yet if DOGE were as successful as Trump wanted them to be, this country would be facing a double-digit loss in GDP just from the sudden drop in government spending. That's a recession by any definition, and not a mild one. It might be a necessary transformation step to get to a healthier economy, but the Trump Administration has said nothing on this point.
Certainly the theory is that securing the border, cracking down on illegal immigration, and ending support for DEI will be to this nation's long-term benefit. I think that is going to prove to be the case, and it follows that there will be economic benefits which can accrue from such policies.
However, my argument is that we are not seeing those benefits yet. Contrary to Trump's cheerleading, America is not in a "Golden Age"--yet. We certainly can be, if his policies work out as anticipated, but we're not there yet, and I do believe Donald Trump does his Administration a disservice by claiming that we are.
HenriO - was thinking along same lines recently; how DJT catches lots of heat for his stinky economy BUT isn't the reality closer to today being a function of the past many decades of corruption, grift and self-dealing by our gov'ts, corps, educational and other institutions - and we want DJT to turn this ship within 1 year? I too want to ask a different Q, what are the proper metrics to know whether the actions and policies by DJT's team (and they are many) will given time produce the fruit our country needs? Frankly our family is long on DJT, but like the big short guy, do we have the fortitude and reserves to wait out the grifters in control?
My take, for what it's worth, is to watch the jobs numbers.
Watch what the employment level does, and what the initial and continuing claims data for unemployment each week.
Consumers need paychecks if they are going to consume, and they need more/bigger paychecks if they are to consume more.
Businesses need employees if they are going to invest in expanded/new plant capacity.
If there is significant expansion in actual employment there will be an upward pressure on wages. It's hard to figure that as a bad thing overall.
If one was to pick a single economic metric on which to focus and have a reasonably accurate picture of the economy, the jobs numbers are probably your best bet.
Economies are dynamic systems, which means there is no way to completely answer that question.
The best anyone can do--and what I strive to do--is to assess where the economy is given the prevailing policies.
We have a set of economic objectives President Trump laid out in Agenda 47. How well is he progressing towards meeting those objectives? With respect to employment and manufacturing, thus far the needed changes have not materialized. Whether that indicates a need for a course correction right now is a judgement call.
I'm not ready to write off Agenda 47, but some movement on manufacturing and job growth needs to happen soon or course corrections will become increasingly necessary.
It looks like inflation is coming under control. Interest rates have also started to decline (albeit on a tardy basis considering the data). The cap ex approach to the economy makes theoretical sense, but that approach takes time. Money has to actually be invested in the real world and then that money has to flow through economic capillaries out to Main Street. I just hope it happens before the mid terms. Otherwise, there will be a bunch of Mamdanis going to DC.
One of the pleasant surprises about Trump's economic policies has been the lack of renewed inflation due to tariffs. A considerable amount of Establishmentarian economic thought on tariffs has been discredited over the past few months.
I suspect inflation will heat up in 2026, if only because, with some 2.3 million migrants having departed the US, it is highly likely the labor force is going to start skewing towards higher wages. If the capital investments President Trump has been touting materialize, building out new plant capacity and refurbishing existing plant capacity will be a not insubstantial resource spend.
The more spending there is, whether it is consumption or investment, the more inflationary pressures are exerted on prices overall.
A point I have made in the past bears repeating here: consumer price inflation and factory gate inflation are only economic burdens if the price rises outpace wage increases. If wages rise in proportion to prices, the actual impact of the inflation is largely muted.
The challenge we have seen during and after the 2022 hyperinflation cycle is that wages did not keep pace, and we have not seen sufficient wage growth since then to overcome the effects of hyperinflation.
Where I have concerns is that, as of yet, we have not seen the sort of labor or wage evolutions which suggest that announced investments are being turned into actual industrial capacity. If we start seeing those then the long-term outlook for the US economy improves significantly.
I still have hopes that Trump’s plans for increased domestic manufacturing will significantly increase in 2026. But yes, there are worrying signals. A couple of writers on Substack have recently pointed out that the transport of goods is dramatically down, indicating a coming severe recession. Peter, do you also see this as a horrible sign, or do you think it’s being overblown?
Large dislocations in trade and goods transport generally carries significant economic impact.
Is a recession likely? I would say the US economy is already in recession.
Will the recession get worse? It might.
Is Trump's approach the way to get through the recession and back on a robust growth track for the economy? That was the bet 77 million voters made last November. That was the bet I made last November. Hopefully, time will prove that bet to be the right one, but we won't know that until it happens.
Bloomberg said it best,
“Data from the survey along with studies by private companies have become more useful of late, as federal agencies once renown for their “gold standard” in economic data have become unreliable.”
Since 2021, the US has come off the idiotic Covid shut down, and has experienced annual inflation rates as high as 8%. Additionally, it has experienced artificially high interest rates as a result of poor stewardship and fraudulent economic data (like the job reports you constantly expose). In short, the US economy has been somewhat of a shit show. IMO the real question now is: Are Trump economic policies the proper way to right this ship, and when will we have enough economic history and data to determine the answer to this question?
To the small group here (HenriO, GBill, Tom and obv Dr PNK) - is our economy downstream from our society? If yes then our economy will benefit from -
Borders closed, illegals removed en masse and immigration laws finally enforced. (L Riley and all related benefits that will flow from this)
DEI removed from govt educational and Corp institutions at the foundational and legal level (my own personal experiences)
The ceasing of covert but direct censoring of dissent by govt at all levels such as grant funding and social media manipulation (A Berenson Covid warriors)
Exposure and defunding of the massive complex and govt overthrow apparatus by usaid cia DoD State and others (M Benz)
And
Weaponization of our govt for lawfare to squash dissent (don't fall for hype of msm, what Biden et al did to T and his supporters is clearly objectively not akin to now)
During the covid era I woke early and often due to a handful of real or perceived risks and I have since gone back to those notes where I wrote those out (mostly the above 5) -- T has addressed these in the main and by wide margin more than any other)- for you?
And I didnt even mention the economy - is it downstream from society?
I think the economy and society are so intertwined that each one generates causes that produce effects in the other. For example, here’s a good article on the negative effects on society that result from inflation:
https://mises.org/mises-wire/road-de-civilization-inflation-and-moral-erosion-society
"is our economy downstream from our society?"
That is a very good question--and like all good questions, the answer is quite a bit more than a simple "yes" or "no".
There certainly are arguments to be made that society is downstream from the economy--i.e., the hollowing out of America's industrial and manufacturing base (economic issue) diminished demand for skilled workers and STEM graduates (societal issue) thus contributing to the decline of American education (cultural issue).
At the same time, societal transformations such as deportation of illegal aliens (societal/political/policy issue) that facilitate putting more native workers into the labor force very likely is a contributor towards ending this country's ongoing jobs recession (economic issue).
Will increasing demand for skilled workers and STEM graduates put pressure on educational institutions to abandon DEI in favor of meritocratic approaches to education? Or will educational institutions abandoning DEI in favor of said meritocratic approaches to education revive interest in hiring skilled workers and STEM graduates?
I suspect one could competently argue both sides of that proposition.
My short take is that a nation's economy is one of its societal dimensions, as are its culture and its demographics. Policies which shift demographics will have an impact on culture and economy, just as policies which shift culture will impact demographics and economy, and policies which shift economy will have an impact on culture and demographics. I'm not sure "downstream" is a useful framing, as that implies a linear relationship which I do not believe can be supported by the totality of evidence.
That said, will removing illegal aliens have salutary effects particularly for native workers? I think over time that will be the case, and certainly recent data on native-born vs foreign-born labor trends suggests that may be happening.
However, when we look at the specifically economic portions of Agenda 47--most notably the ambition to make America a "manufacturing superpower", we necessarily have to look at specific economic data to see whether that objective is being met, or is even on a trajectory to be met. Given that the US economy is still hemorrhaging manufacturing jobs and we have seen little uptick in industrial capacity utilization, I am not certain the data lends confidence to the supposition that Trump's manufacturing objectives are on track to be fulfilled.
That's a problem, and not one which is directly addressed by immigration policy or shifts regarding DEI. It may very well be the case that those policies will have network effects which do improve the state of manufacturing in this country, but those effects have not emerged in the data as of the September jobs report.
My particular criticism of President Trump in this regard is not that his policies are the wrong policies. I do not believe ten months of data allows us to reach that conclusion. Rather, my criticism is that President Trump's "Golden Age" rhetoric makes no acknowledgement of the very real weaknesses and toxicities which still lurk within US labor markets. We have not seen broad recovery in real earnings, we are not seeing a reversal of the downward trend in manufacturing jobs, we are not seeing an end to the jobs recession as a whole.
If these things are going to come with time, President Trump and his Administration need to make that case and give realistic assessments on how Trump policies are furthering those objectives in the long-term, and how far those policies have progressed.
We have not heard, for example, any rhetoric about the inevitability of a recession, yet if DOGE were as successful as Trump wanted them to be, this country would be facing a double-digit loss in GDP just from the sudden drop in government spending. That's a recession by any definition, and not a mild one. It might be a necessary transformation step to get to a healthier economy, but the Trump Administration has said nothing on this point.
Certainly the theory is that securing the border, cracking down on illegal immigration, and ending support for DEI will be to this nation's long-term benefit. I think that is going to prove to be the case, and it follows that there will be economic benefits which can accrue from such policies.
However, my argument is that we are not seeing those benefits yet. Contrary to Trump's cheerleading, America is not in a "Golden Age"--yet. We certainly can be, if his policies work out as anticipated, but we're not there yet, and I do believe Donald Trump does his Administration a disservice by claiming that we are.
HenriO - was thinking along same lines recently; how DJT catches lots of heat for his stinky economy BUT isn't the reality closer to today being a function of the past many decades of corruption, grift and self-dealing by our gov'ts, corps, educational and other institutions - and we want DJT to turn this ship within 1 year? I too want to ask a different Q, what are the proper metrics to know whether the actions and policies by DJT's team (and they are many) will given time produce the fruit our country needs? Frankly our family is long on DJT, but like the big short guy, do we have the fortitude and reserves to wait out the grifters in control?
My take, for what it's worth, is to watch the jobs numbers.
Watch what the employment level does, and what the initial and continuing claims data for unemployment each week.
Consumers need paychecks if they are going to consume, and they need more/bigger paychecks if they are to consume more.
Businesses need employees if they are going to invest in expanded/new plant capacity.
If there is significant expansion in actual employment there will be an upward pressure on wages. It's hard to figure that as a bad thing overall.
If one was to pick a single economic metric on which to focus and have a reasonably accurate picture of the economy, the jobs numbers are probably your best bet.
Economies are dynamic systems, which means there is no way to completely answer that question.
The best anyone can do--and what I strive to do--is to assess where the economy is given the prevailing policies.
We have a set of economic objectives President Trump laid out in Agenda 47. How well is he progressing towards meeting those objectives? With respect to employment and manufacturing, thus far the needed changes have not materialized. Whether that indicates a need for a course correction right now is a judgement call.
I'm not ready to write off Agenda 47, but some movement on manufacturing and job growth needs to happen soon or course corrections will become increasingly necessary.
It looks like inflation is coming under control. Interest rates have also started to decline (albeit on a tardy basis considering the data). The cap ex approach to the economy makes theoretical sense, but that approach takes time. Money has to actually be invested in the real world and then that money has to flow through economic capillaries out to Main Street. I just hope it happens before the mid terms. Otherwise, there will be a bunch of Mamdanis going to DC.
One of the pleasant surprises about Trump's economic policies has been the lack of renewed inflation due to tariffs. A considerable amount of Establishmentarian economic thought on tariffs has been discredited over the past few months.
I suspect inflation will heat up in 2026, if only because, with some 2.3 million migrants having departed the US, it is highly likely the labor force is going to start skewing towards higher wages. If the capital investments President Trump has been touting materialize, building out new plant capacity and refurbishing existing plant capacity will be a not insubstantial resource spend.
The more spending there is, whether it is consumption or investment, the more inflationary pressures are exerted on prices overall.
A point I have made in the past bears repeating here: consumer price inflation and factory gate inflation are only economic burdens if the price rises outpace wage increases. If wages rise in proportion to prices, the actual impact of the inflation is largely muted.
The challenge we have seen during and after the 2022 hyperinflation cycle is that wages did not keep pace, and we have not seen sufficient wage growth since then to overcome the effects of hyperinflation.
Where I have concerns is that, as of yet, we have not seen the sort of labor or wage evolutions which suggest that announced investments are being turned into actual industrial capacity. If we start seeing those then the long-term outlook for the US economy improves significantly.
I still have hopes that Trump’s plans for increased domestic manufacturing will significantly increase in 2026. But yes, there are worrying signals. A couple of writers on Substack have recently pointed out that the transport of goods is dramatically down, indicating a coming severe recession. Peter, do you also see this as a horrible sign, or do you think it’s being overblown?
Large dislocations in trade and goods transport generally carries significant economic impact.
Is a recession likely? I would say the US economy is already in recession.
Will the recession get worse? It might.
Is Trump's approach the way to get through the recession and back on a robust growth track for the economy? That was the bet 77 million voters made last November. That was the bet I made last November. Hopefully, time will prove that bet to be the right one, but we won't know that until it happens.