I love seeing accurate data, even when it doesn’t give me the news I hoped to read. Thanks, Peter!
“Muddying the waters, however, are the July Purchasing Managers' Index metrics, which present a conflicting counter-narrative to the ADP data.” Peter, what is the track record for this index? Do you give much weight to what it reports?
We do not have a good way to make an apples to apples comparison between the PMI indices and the job reports. Rather, we must look to see whether the signals from both data sets are complimentary, contradictory, or in between.
You would have been an excellent professor, Magnificent Man. You always explain things so clearly, with just the information I need to truly comprehend!
I will leave it to others how “excellent” I have been as a teacher, but I do believe my students came away with more knowledge and understanding, and that is the objective.
I love seeing accurate data, even when it doesn’t give me the news I hoped to read. Thanks, Peter!
“Muddying the waters, however, are the July Purchasing Managers' Index metrics, which present a conflicting counter-narrative to the ADP data.” Peter, what is the track record for this index? Do you give much weight to what it reports?
The PMI is a more qualitative measure than a quantitative one. It tracks the assessments of those in industry.
The PMI reported an increase in manufacturing employment.
June JOLTS reported good growth in Manufacturing.
July ADP reported cooling but still positive job growth in Manufacturing.
Goods producing sectors overall reported job loss.
We do not have a good way to make an apples to apples comparison between the PMI indices and the job reports. Rather, we must look to see whether the signals from both data sets are complimentary, contradictory, or in between.
This month the signals are in between.
You would have been an excellent professor, Magnificent Man. You always explain things so clearly, with just the information I need to truly comprehend!
I have been a teacher in multiple disciplines.
Accounting.
Economics.
Literature.
History.
Physics.
Mathematics.
IP Routing and Switching.
Computer Programming.
Network Troubleshooting and Analysis.
I will leave it to others how “excellent” I have been as a teacher, but I do believe my students came away with more knowledge and understanding, and that is the objective.
You really are a Magnificent Man, Peter.