Have you looked into consumer debt and/or default rates? 💳 Are young people saving any money?💸 Home equity used to be a wealth builder for young families, but now🏡 so many of our youth postpone marriage and can't afford housing close to where their work is. Any data or facts here Pete? Are you seeing signs down south🏗️👷🏾♂️👨🏼🏭🐂 of the Red River in Baja Oklahoma 🌮 of men headed back out to the oil patch? 🤔
I have not reviewed the debt picture recently. I will say that consumer debt default is not presenting as a noticed pain point among financials institutions at the moment.
That’s not the same as saying that consumer debt is not a concern.
Already have seen the pump prices moving up here in Illinois. Granted, some of that is due to Pritzker and the Chicaco democrats tax increases!!!
HOW MUCH IS THE NEW ILLINOIS GAS TAX HIKE? – “Illinois drivers will see another gas tax increase July 1. The state tax will rise to 49.6 cents per gallon because of the automatic annual inflation increase built into the 2019 “Rebuild Illinois” infrastructure program signed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker. That means Illinois drivers will continue paying among the highest gas taxes in the country. Pritzker doubled the state gas tax from 19 cents to 38 cents in 2019,” – Dylan Sharkey - https://www.illinoispolicy.org/how-much-is-the-new-illinois-gas-tax-hike/ -
While the constant caveat when discussing regional prices particularly for pump prices is always “Your mileage WILL vary”, the current cycle of ceasefire/escalation rhetoric surrounding the war with Iran suggests fuel and energy prices, both in commodities markets and in retail markets, are likely to be rather volatile for the foreseeable future.
Nationwide, the EIA is reporting fuel prices easing in the first part of August. How long that downward trend persists is a constant unknown given the murkiness surrounding events in the Persian Gulf. We could see pump prices decline for a few more weeks, or we could see fuel prices shoot up again next week. Both trajectories are plausible in current circumstances.
At present, the EIA is reporting pump prices for gasoline right at $4/gal nationwide. That is $0.50/gal below the peak from mid-May, when the full force of the first oil supply shock wave was being felt in the US economy. It is also well below the Biden-era peak of $5/gal.
Diesel is a more problematic picture, as the EIA is reporting pump prices close to the Biden-era peaks.
These are nationwide averages. Individual local markets will see prices higher and lower than what the EIA reports.
A spate of good news from the Persian Gulf could push pump prices down in coming weeks, in Illinois and elsewhere. A spate of bad news from the Persian Gulf would likely push pump prices higher.
The only sure prediction regarding the Persian Gulf so far is that there will be good news, followed by bad news.
It's not a circumstance that makes for solid forecasts and predictions.
You’ve mentioned the possibility of missing data that would explain some of these mysteries. I’ve heard that Trump has many close friends in the oil industry, so I’m wondering what kind of mitigations from them could exist. I have no clue.
Another mystery - to me, anyway - is the lack of reaction from Wall Street. You’ve shown irrefutable data indicating an oilpocalyse, yet Wall Street has registered no alarm. Why aren’t they freaking out about the impending dire economic results? Again, I have no clue.
But I have confidence that you, Peter, will find the explanations and be among the first to analyze them. Thank you in advance!
Why isn't Wall Street registering no alarm over the oilpocalypse scenario? An interesting question that does not present with satisfactory answers.
At the moment, the best explanation appears to be that oil markets especially just don't believe there will be an oilpocalypse. It's a rather surreal market affirmation of trust in President Trump, but the market's expectation is that everything in the Persian Gulf will work out, somehow.
We must also remember that the oilpocalypse is one scenario, one outcome. Whether we see that scenario depends on what unfolds next in the Persian Gulf. Yes, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the more likely the oilpocalypse scenario becomes, but the speed at which the cycle of ceasefire and escalation has flipped back and forth means the oilpocalypse may be getting more likely, but neither it nor any other scenario are an absolute certainty.
Have you looked into consumer debt and/or default rates? 💳 Are young people saving any money?💸 Home equity used to be a wealth builder for young families, but now🏡 so many of our youth postpone marriage and can't afford housing close to where their work is. Any data or facts here Pete? Are you seeing signs down south🏗️👷🏾♂️👨🏼🏭🐂 of the Red River in Baja Oklahoma 🌮 of men headed back out to the oil patch? 🤔
I have not reviewed the debt picture recently. I will say that consumer debt default is not presenting as a noticed pain point among financials institutions at the moment.
That’s not the same as saying that consumer debt is not a concern.
Already have seen the pump prices moving up here in Illinois. Granted, some of that is due to Pritzker and the Chicaco democrats tax increases!!!
HOW MUCH IS THE NEW ILLINOIS GAS TAX HIKE? – “Illinois drivers will see another gas tax increase July 1. The state tax will rise to 49.6 cents per gallon because of the automatic annual inflation increase built into the 2019 “Rebuild Illinois” infrastructure program signed by Gov. J.B. Pritzker. That means Illinois drivers will continue paying among the highest gas taxes in the country. Pritzker doubled the state gas tax from 19 cents to 38 cents in 2019,” – Dylan Sharkey - https://www.illinoispolicy.org/how-much-is-the-new-illinois-gas-tax-hike/ -
While the constant caveat when discussing regional prices particularly for pump prices is always “Your mileage WILL vary”, the current cycle of ceasefire/escalation rhetoric surrounding the war with Iran suggests fuel and energy prices, both in commodities markets and in retail markets, are likely to be rather volatile for the foreseeable future.
Nationwide, the EIA is reporting fuel prices easing in the first part of August. How long that downward trend persists is a constant unknown given the murkiness surrounding events in the Persian Gulf. We could see pump prices decline for a few more weeks, or we could see fuel prices shoot up again next week. Both trajectories are plausible in current circumstances.
At present, the EIA is reporting pump prices for gasoline right at $4/gal nationwide. That is $0.50/gal below the peak from mid-May, when the full force of the first oil supply shock wave was being felt in the US economy. It is also well below the Biden-era peak of $5/gal.
Diesel is a more problematic picture, as the EIA is reporting pump prices close to the Biden-era peaks.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1XSoZ
These are nationwide averages. Individual local markets will see prices higher and lower than what the EIA reports.
A spate of good news from the Persian Gulf could push pump prices down in coming weeks, in Illinois and elsewhere. A spate of bad news from the Persian Gulf would likely push pump prices higher.
The only sure prediction regarding the Persian Gulf so far is that there will be good news, followed by bad news.
It's not a circumstance that makes for solid forecasts and predictions.
You’ve mentioned the possibility of missing data that would explain some of these mysteries. I’ve heard that Trump has many close friends in the oil industry, so I’m wondering what kind of mitigations from them could exist. I have no clue.
Another mystery - to me, anyway - is the lack of reaction from Wall Street. You’ve shown irrefutable data indicating an oilpocalyse, yet Wall Street has registered no alarm. Why aren’t they freaking out about the impending dire economic results? Again, I have no clue.
But I have confidence that you, Peter, will find the explanations and be among the first to analyze them. Thank you in advance!
Why isn't Wall Street registering no alarm over the oilpocalypse scenario? An interesting question that does not present with satisfactory answers.
At the moment, the best explanation appears to be that oil markets especially just don't believe there will be an oilpocalypse. It's a rather surreal market affirmation of trust in President Trump, but the market's expectation is that everything in the Persian Gulf will work out, somehow.
We must also remember that the oilpocalypse is one scenario, one outcome. Whether we see that scenario depends on what unfolds next in the Persian Gulf. Yes, the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed the more likely the oilpocalypse scenario becomes, but the speed at which the cycle of ceasefire and escalation has flipped back and forth means the oilpocalypse may be getting more likely, but neither it nor any other scenario are an absolute certainty.