I think I follow your argument that net actual hiring is more or less flat due to employee churn. It seems like a metric worth tracking. Simple and clear.
But I do not understand what you mean by "fake job openings rose." What are "fake job openings?" Who is faking them? Is this like "fake news?"
It seems like you are trying to make a claim but I'm not clear what it it. Help me understand...
With unemployment at 4.4%, what should hiring look like? Should it race towards 3.4%
When job "openings" rise and hiring falls, something is off kilter.
Since the COVID Pandemic Panic job openings have run persistently well above hiring, by a far greater degree than before the Pandemic Panic. That's a sign of a disconnect, which is to say the job openings are overstated (i.e., "fake").
As for the unemployment rate, if you include those not in the labor force but want a job now unemployment is actually around 7%.
I've discussed the measurement shortcomings of the BLS at length in previous articles.
I don't doubt your analysis out of hand, but how does one divine "not in the labor market but want a job now." What's the math here? Is it just gut? Is it those who say they'd like a job but have stopped looking? If you've stopped looking, how are you in the labor market? Happy to read other articles on this. Thanks!
There is nothing to "divine". That is one of the labor metrics that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports every month, as part of the Current Population Survey (Household Survey) portion of the Employment Situation Summary.
The reality of unemployment and those not in the labor force is that overall joblessness in this country has been rising since early 2023.
That is what the government data has been charting for quite some time.
I've been analyzing the employment data for quite some time. If you're interested, you might want to review some of my earlier commentaries on the subject.
I appreciate your insightful accuracy in these assessments, Peter. You really are a top-notch analyst!
The increased decline in manufacturing numbers for October has me wondering about the cause. Is this mostly Powell’s fault, or are there new factors that you can see in the data?
I think I follow your argument that net actual hiring is more or less flat due to employee churn. It seems like a metric worth tracking. Simple and clear.
But I do not understand what you mean by "fake job openings rose." What are "fake job openings?" Who is faking them? Is this like "fake news?"
It seems like you are trying to make a claim but I'm not clear what it it. Help me understand...
With unemployment at 4.4%, what should hiring look like? Should it race towards 3.4%
When job "openings" rise and hiring falls, something is off kilter.
Since the COVID Pandemic Panic job openings have run persistently well above hiring, by a far greater degree than before the Pandemic Panic. That's a sign of a disconnect, which is to say the job openings are overstated (i.e., "fake").
As for the unemployment rate, if you include those not in the labor force but want a job now unemployment is actually around 7%.
I've discussed the measurement shortcomings of the BLS at length in previous articles.
I don't doubt your analysis out of hand, but how does one divine "not in the labor market but want a job now." What's the math here? Is it just gut? Is it those who say they'd like a job but have stopped looking? If you've stopped looking, how are you in the labor market? Happy to read other articles on this. Thanks!
There is nothing to "divine". That is one of the labor metrics that the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports every month, as part of the Current Population Survey (Household Survey) portion of the Employment Situation Summary.
The reality of unemployment and those not in the labor force is that overall joblessness in this country has been rising since early 2023.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/i/179515076/joblessness-still-rising
That is what the government data has been charting for quite some time.
I've been analyzing the employment data for quite some time. If you're interested, you might want to review some of my earlier commentaries on the subject.
https://newsletter.allfactsmatter.us/s/recession-matters
will do - thank you.
I appreciate your insightful accuracy in these assessments, Peter. You really are a top-notch analyst!
The increased decline in manufacturing numbers for October has me wondering about the cause. Is this mostly Powell’s fault, or are there new factors that you can see in the data?
Thank you for confirming, I need to build a cash buffer.
A cash buffer is definitely a prudent measure.
There is a correction coming, and the signs are increasing that it will be large and disruptive.
It will also be global. No one will be spared.
Yikes. At the beginning of retirement Sequence of Returns Risk is a huge concern.